Is the United States becoming more aggressive?

November 12th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

I have just started reading: “The Next 100 Years” by George Friedman. He admits that: “The United States is, historically, a warlike country.”

Consider these figures in the book:

The US has been at war for about 10% of its existence.
During the 20th century, the US was at war 15% of the time.
In the second half of the 20th century, the US was at war 22% of the time.
Since 2001, the US has been constantly at war.

Friedman comments: “America was born out of war and has continued to fight to this day at an ever increasing pace.”

Posted in American current affairs, History | Comments (0)

Rachel Maddow explains what the American presidential election result really means

November 11th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

This video clip lasts 15 minutes, but Rachel Maddow of the MSNBC channel explains what the return of Barack Obama to the White House and the defeat of Mitt Romney really means to Americans and the world.

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A review of “The Iron Lady”

November 10th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

It’s taken me a little while, but I’ve now managed to catch up with the biopic of Margaret Thatcher “The Iron Lady”.

You can read my review here.

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Two statistics that explain America’s global power

November 9th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

What proportion of the world’s population is constituted by the United States. The answer is a mere 4%.
What proportion of the world’s gross domestic product is generated by the USA? The answer is an astonishing 26%.

The figures come from a book that I have just started reading: “The Next 100 Years” by George Friedman.

He also points out that:

The American economy is larger than the next four countries combined
American oil production is third highest in the world and 85% that of Saudi Arabia
American natural gas production is second highest in the world and greater than the next five producers combined
The combined naval force of the rest of the world does not come near equalling that of the US Navy

I think you can see where this is going. Friedman argues that “the United States’ power is so extraordinarily overwhelming, and so deeply rooted in economic, technological, and cultural realties, that the country will continue to surge through the twenty-first century, buffeted though it will be by wars and crises”.

This is a very different analysis and message from that contained in the book “Time To Start Thinking” by Richard Luce which I read recently and reviewed here.

What do you think? Has American power peaked or are the best days of the USA still to come?

Posted in American current affairs | Comments (1)

Some reflections on the US presidential election – and how the event impacted on my web site

November 9th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

As I did with the American presidential race of 2008, I’ve blogged regularly on the 2012 contest. In the end, the result was much as I had been suggesting it would be. Although in terms of the overall share of individual votes, Barack Obama only won quite narrowly, as I constantly pointed out, the contest is determined by the Electoral College where Obama was always better placed. We still don’t know the result in Florida, but Obama took almost all the key swing states in a brilliant ‘ground game’.

Most non-Americans were surprised at how closely fought the contest was because, in world terms, Obama has been a good President, ending the US presence in Iraq, fixing a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan, avoiding an excessively combative attitude to Iran, and reaching out to the Muslim world, even if he vacillated on the Arab Spring and has authorised substantial use of killer drones. He has been a US President who demonstrated every day the nickname acquired in his first run for the White House: ‘no drama Obama’.

But, for most Americans, the election was mostly about the economy. Obama introduced a successful stimulus package and saved the auto industry, but unemployment remains at around 8% which normally would have denied a sitting president a second term. Also, very sadly, there are still far too many Americans who think that Obama is not American or that he is Muslim or socialist – a sickening sign of underlying racism.

I haven’t seen final figures for turnout, but it looks as if around 10% fewer Americans voted in this presidential election than in the last one which stimulated unusual excitement. So turnout fell back to the usual 50% which is one of the lowest figures in the democratic world. And, in the case of many Republican-controlled states, recent legislation (dubbed voter suppression laws) actually made it harder to vote than previously.

Another electoral travesty is that the House of Representatives still has a clear Republican majority – able to frustrate a Democratic President and Senate – but it looks as if Democratic candidates actually won more votes than their Republican rivals in total, thanks to gerrymandering – see explanation here. Is it any wonder that nations hostile to the USA – I was looking at coverage by Press TV of Iran – attack America’s claim to be the most democratic nation on earth?

It would be good to think that, now that Obama does not have to face a further re-election battle, he can be more adventurous and forthcoming, most especially on the all-important issue of climate change. But he still faces an intransigent Republican majority in the House of Representatives and a deeply divided American populace.

It would be good to think that the Republican Party would draw some deep lessons from their defeat. In the short-term, they need to be more bipartisanship on working with Obama on the deficit. In the medium term, they need to reach out beyond their core vote of older, white males and appeal more to the young, ethnic minorities and women.

But I am not hopeful. My American friend Mike Grace e-mailed me throughout the night of the election and his last message concluded as follows:

“Yet, despite all of the money and the energy, everything remains basically the same as before the election. Dems have the White House (and future Supreme Court appointments). The GOP controls the House and Speaker Boehner earlier this week said they would not agree to tax increases to reduce the deficit. The GOP has a filibuster-proof minority in the Senate requiring a super majority of 60 votes to pass anything.

The gridlock continues.

But at least we won’t be subjected to any more robo calls or tv ads….for a while.”

Finally, a note on how the US presidential election inpacted my web site.

Normally my site receives around 8,000+ visits a day and Monday or Tuesday is always the busiest day. Not this week. The busiest day was Wednesday, the day of the US election result. On that day, the number of visits shot to a record 11,541.

Why? When I checked my traffic statistics, I found that there was a spike in the visits to my page on “A Short Guide To The American Political System”. Indeed, in the last four weeks, the page has received almost 11,000 visits.

Posted in American current affairs | Comments (2)

Three speaking engagements on three consecutive days

November 8th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

It’s been a busy week which has involved me speaking at three different events on three different subjects.

On Monday I was at the BBC’s New Broadcasting House to attend an all-day event on digital radio in cars and I was a member of a panel discussion on the stage hosted by BBC correspondent Nick Higham. You can see my note on the event here and my brief on digital radio here.

On Tuesday evening, I was at the London School of Economics to speak at a seminar organised by the LSE Media Policy Project. The subject of the event was the regulation of convergence, that is the coming together of broadcasting and the Internet. I was the principal speaker with responses from Chris Woolard of Ofcom and Lord Inglewood who is chairing a House of Lords inquiry into this subject. You can read the argument I advanced here.

After these two events in London, on Wednesday I took the train to my home city of Manchester, primarily to visit my old school, Xaverian College, which this year celebrates its 150th anniversary. At the invitation of the Curriculum Leader for Politcs & Government Catherine Hennelly, I gave a guest lecture on comparisons between the political systems of the UK and the USA which was attended by around 50 sixth form students. I had deliberately timed my lecture to coincide with the Presidential election which hightened the interest in the event.

For my material, I drew heavily on three essays on my web site: a guide to the British political system, a guide to the American political system. and a comparison of the two systems.

Then I stayed overnight in Manchester so that I could spend time with my brother Ralph, his partner Carol and their wonderful nine year old daughter Saskia.

I receive a lovely hug from my niece Saskia

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A fun weekend looking after baby Catrin

November 5th, 2012 by Roger Darlington

Although I try to see my granddaughter Catrin – now almost two – each week when I collect her from nursery and sometimes babysit, we have only had her with us overnight on two occasions. The first was a year ago when I blogged here and here. The second was this weekend.

Our son Richard delivered Catrin to us about 11.30 am on Saturday. We knew that Saturday would be fine but Sunday would be rainy so, after feeding her at home, we drove to the town of Beaconsfield and she had her midday sleep on the way. Our destination was the wonderful model village of Bekonscot which we have visited several times over the years but never with Catrin.

“What do you mean, granddad, that
I’m going to be taller than all the buildings here?

It claims to be the oldest model village in the world, having opened in 1929 and hosted a total of almost 15 million visitors. The place is an absolute delight for little kids and Catrin loved it – all the miniature urban and rural settings with lots of scale buildings and people plus an extensive model railway.

We stopped for some lunch and Catrin enjoyed ham sandwich and babycino before riding a toy train and a toy car. Towards the end of our two-hour visit, Catrin tried out the playground and then we all went on the miniature railway before buying a children’s book at the shop (which is housed in an old railway carriage).

“Wow! You’re right!!
I am taller than the buildings.”

“After a delicious ham sandwich,
I love nothing better than a babycino.”

“Stop taking all these photos, granddad,
and put a pound in the slot of this train.”

“This is the biggest slide that I’ve been on,
but I’m not afraid.”

Back at the house, Catrin had a splashy bath and then slept on a blow-up bed provided by her father. She went to sleep instantly, hugging her favourite cuddly toy, Elly the elephant (acquired in Los Angeles Zoo). Sadly the little one had a cold and woke about half-a-dozen times in the night but each time went back to sleep after a reassuring cuddle (unfortunately I did not have the same experience).

Sunday started around 7.30 am. It was raining as forecast so we needed to have time indoors. I took Catrin on the London Underground (which makes her feel very grown up) to the Science Museum which I have visited many, many times with kids of various ages.

“This is more much fun than the buggy –
but why do they keep saying:
‘Mind the gap’ “

In the basement, there is a relatively new section called The Garden which is especially for young children.

Catrin had a fabulous time here, manoeuvring a plastic boat around the water feature surrounded by loads of other noisy kids and pushing Elly the elephant and various coloured bricks around in a wheelbarrow. She hated leaving the place, but she was rewarded with a special purchase at the museum shop: a spiky ball that displays flashing lights when you bounce it (why didn’t we have toys like that as a kid?).

“Never mind all this rubbish about
learning the principles of hydraulics,
I’m just having so much fun.”

“I could be a builder when I grow up.
Nah – politician sounds more fun.”

Catrin slept on the tube journey home. Back at the house, we played and played. She is such a happy child with a lovely sense of humour and an impressive vocabulary (favourite word: ‘No’). Richard took her from us about 4.45 pm, leaving us very tired but sure that we had given the little chick a fun time.

To use a phrase of my own grandma, she was ‘as good as gold’. If she would stay still while I’m changing a dirty nappy, she would be the perfect baby.

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An introduction to Big History

November 3rd, 2012 by Roger Darlington

In this TED talk, David Christian gives us the history of the world in 18 minutes.

Posted in History | Comments (0)

Obama vs Romney: the last couple of days

November 3rd, 2012 by Roger Darlington

On Tuesday, the United States will hold elections for the President, a third of the Senate, all of the House of Representatives, and all sorts of local positions. The world has been watching the presidential election especially, finding it hard to believe that the Democratic incumbent Barack Obama could be finding it so difficult to fend off the challenge of someone like the Republican Mitt Romney.

At the national level, Obama and Romney are absolutely tied. According to the Real Clear Politics web site, the average of the polls shows a mere 0.1% separating the two candidates which is well within the margin of error.

But, as I have explained in previous postings on the election, the result will not be determined by the national total of votes for each candidate but by the outcome in the Electoral College. Accordsing to the best estimate of Real Clear Politics, Obama should win the College by 290 votes to 248.

This raises an intriguing possibility. It is quite possible that Romney could win more votes nationwide than Obama, but Obama could still win – maybe even quite convincingly – in the Electoral College. Politically this would be the mirror image of the situation in the presidential election of 2000 when the Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but Republican George W Bush took the College.

I think the chances of the Electoral College being tied are tiny but, if that happened, a bizarre situation would unfold. In that eventuality, the Constitution provides that the House of Representatives choses the President and the Senate choses the Vice-President.

The House is currently controlled by the Republicans and this will remain the position after this election, although the Republican majority may be a bit smaller, so they would choose Romney for President. The Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats and this will remain the case after this election, so they would choose Joe Biden for Vice-President.

It would be like a plot device in “The West Wing”.

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