Obama vs Romney: the last couple of days
On Tuesday, the United States will hold elections for the President, a third of the Senate, all of the House of Representatives, and all sorts of local positions. The world has been watching the presidential election especially, finding it hard to believe that the Democratic incumbent Barack Obama could be finding it so difficult to fend off the challenge of someone like the Republican Mitt Romney.
At the national level, Obama and Romney are absolutely tied. According to the Real Clear Politics web site, the average of the polls shows a mere 0.1% separating the two candidates which is well within the margin of error.
But, as I have explained in previous postings on the election, the result will not be determined by the national total of votes for each candidate but by the outcome in the Electoral College. Accordsing to the best estimate of Real Clear Politics, Obama should win the College by 290 votes to 248.
This raises an intriguing possibility. It is quite possible that Romney could win more votes nationwide than Obama, but Obama could still win – maybe even quite convincingly – in the Electoral College. Politically this would be the mirror image of the situation in the presidential election of 2000 when the Democrat Al Gore won the popular vote but Republican George W Bush took the College.
I think the chances of the Electoral College being tied are tiny but, if that happened, a bizarre situation would unfold. In that eventuality, the Constitution provides that the House of Representatives choses the President and the Senate choses the Vice-President.
The House is currently controlled by the Republicans and this will remain the position after this election, although the Republican majority may be a bit smaller, so they would choose Romney for President. The Senate is currently controlled by the Democrats and this will remain the case after this election, so they would choose Joe Biden for Vice-President.
It would be like a plot device in “The West Wing”.
November 4th, 2012 at 4:11 pm
Hi Roger,
I think the Senate could indeed select Joe Biden, but it is much more likely they would select Paul Ryan so that the Executive Branch is unified. Washington — particularly the Senate — is more conciliatory than people imagine.
Also, why select Biden if he would just be (i) marginalized to attending state functions like funerals; and (ii) put in charge of doomed projects. Finally, if the Democrats select Ryan they would have a true, unified target for future political efforts.
By the way, here in Georgia (a non-swing state), the big issue this campaign is about a proposed amendment to the state constitution concerning how so-called “charter” schools are authorized. We are seeing very few Obama or Romney adverts here.
Finally, there is a noticeable drop-off in support for Obama here locally (a small city called Decatur near Atlanta). In 2008 there were Obama yard signs everywhere. I can walk down my block and not see a single one today. I’m not sure how that will translate to votes, however. I would still expect Obama to garner more votes than Romney in the greater Atlanta area.