Some reflections on the US presidential election – and how the event impacted on my web site
As I did with the American presidential race of 2008, I’ve blogged regularly on the 2012 contest. In the end, the result was much as I had been suggesting it would be. Although in terms of the overall share of individual votes, Barack Obama only won quite narrowly, as I constantly pointed out, the contest is determined by the Electoral College where Obama was always better placed. We still don’t know the result in Florida, but Obama took almost all the key swing states in a brilliant ‘ground game’.
Most non-Americans were surprised at how closely fought the contest was because, in world terms, Obama has been a good President, ending the US presence in Iraq, fixing a timetable for withdrawal from Afghanistan, avoiding an excessively combative attitude to Iran, and reaching out to the Muslim world, even if he vacillated on the Arab Spring and has authorised substantial use of killer drones. He has been a US President who demonstrated every day the nickname acquired in his first run for the White House: ‘no drama Obama’.
But, for most Americans, the election was mostly about the economy. Obama introduced a successful stimulus package and saved the auto industry, but unemployment remains at around 8% which normally would have denied a sitting president a second term. Also, very sadly, there are still far too many Americans who think that Obama is not American or that he is Muslim or socialist – a sickening sign of underlying racism.
I haven’t seen final figures for turnout, but it looks as if around 10% fewer Americans voted in this presidential election than in the last one which stimulated unusual excitement. So turnout fell back to the usual 50% which is one of the lowest figures in the democratic world. And, in the case of many Republican-controlled states, recent legislation (dubbed voter suppression laws) actually made it harder to vote than previously.
Another electoral travesty is that the House of Representatives still has a clear Republican majority – able to frustrate a Democratic President and Senate – but it looks as if Democratic candidates actually won more votes than their Republican rivals in total, thanks to gerrymandering – see explanation here. Is it any wonder that nations hostile to the USA – I was looking at coverage by Press TV of Iran – attack America’s claim to be the most democratic nation on earth?
It would be good to think that, now that Obama does not have to face a further re-election battle, he can be more adventurous and forthcoming, most especially on the all-important issue of climate change. But he still faces an intransigent Republican majority in the House of Representatives and a deeply divided American populace.
It would be good to think that the Republican Party would draw some deep lessons from their defeat. In the short-term, they need to be more bipartisanship on working with Obama on the deficit. In the medium term, they need to reach out beyond their core vote of older, white males and appeal more to the young, ethnic minorities and women.
But I am not hopeful. My American friend Mike Grace e-mailed me throughout the night of the election and his last message concluded as follows:
“Yet, despite all of the money and the energy, everything remains basically the same as before the election. Dems have the White House (and future Supreme Court appointments). The GOP controls the House and Speaker Boehner earlier this week said they would not agree to tax increases to reduce the deficit. The GOP has a filibuster-proof minority in the Senate requiring a super majority of 60 votes to pass anything.
The gridlock continues.
But at least we won’t be subjected to any more robo calls or tv ads….for a while.”
Finally, a note on how the US presidential election inpacted my web site.
Normally my site receives around 8,000+ visits a day and Monday or Tuesday is always the busiest day. Not this week. The busiest day was Wednesday, the day of the US election result. On that day, the number of visits shot to a record 11,541.
Why? When I checked my traffic statistics, I found that there was a spike in the visits to my page on “A Short Guide To The American Political System”. Indeed, in the last four weeks, the page has received almost 11,000 visits.
November 9th, 2012 at 10:53 pm
Your election day comments were spot on – though I wish those on your
side of the Pond had a keener appreciation for the second level of
significance of our election process – namely, what happens at the
state level, especially in referendum-reliant states like mine –
Here in California a GMF labeling requirement lost and Monsanto won
… likewise replacement of the Death Penalty with a life sentence
lost, and proposed small taxes on sugar-loaded soda lost in the two
small California cities where they were proposed –
but college students in San Jose, Ca, won with their referendum raising the
Minimum Wage in that city from $8 to 10 dollars,
and California voters agreed to a small tax increase to aid education
(which will expire in 4 years),
the weakening of the infamous 3-strikes sentencing law, and they rejected an
attack on union political fund-raising, thanks to a remarkable effort
by a revived Organized Labor (which also scored well in Ohio and
Wisconsin).
Along with 4 same-sex marriage law gains in the states, 2 state
acceptances of private (non-medical) marijuana use, and the victory
for 20 Senate seats of some fine female candidates, the election returns
give one much to applaud.
Oh yes, the President got re-elected, as stalwarts came through and
enough independents finally took Mitt’s measure to help make the
difference.
Taken all in all, even with the likelihood of continued Congressional
stalemate in some vital matters, the country would seem to have much going
for it.
November 9th, 2012 at 10:58 pm
Roger, nice summary and good perspective from overseas. I do think Americans like Congressional gridlock in a way, which is yet another way to put up more checks and balances, which makes it difficult for any President to truly make big change.
As it relates to the Republicans, I feel that they are more and more out of touch with the young and those that are not white Christians. They will need to really think through some of their party positions if they want to embrace those that generally don’t vote for them, as you can argue that they are boxing themselves out demographically from ever winning again. They had their chance this year as the economy tends to drive Presidential decisions, and Obama was very weak here, but they just couldn’t attract enough people to vote for Romney.
I assume many people across the world scratch their heads at some of their positions around global warming/climate change, immigration, American “Exceptionalism,” Creationism, and social issues such as abortion and same sex marriage. Let alone their insistence that we never raise taxes. Many of these are driven by the Evangelical wing of the party, which is really hurting them. It makes America look stupid and I feel that the Republican party has become the anti-intellectual party, which is offensive to me.