How many British Prime Ministers have been assassinated?
May 11th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Most people would guess none – but sadly the answer is one. The unfortunate Spencer Perceval was shot dead in the House of Commons itself by a man with a grudge against the government.
This occurred exactly two hundred years ago today and, of course, the “Guardian” has marked the date with an article.
Posted in History | Comments (0)
What will the home of the future look like?
May 10th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
You’ll find plenty of fascinating ideas here.
Posted in Science & technology | Comments (0)
The most complicated politics in the democratic world
May 9th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Israel may be a small country of just 8 million, but its politics matter, both because it is the only genuine democracy in the Middle East and it is the strongest military power in the region. I have tried to explain Israel’s political system here.
In the conclusion of my essay, I state: “Israeli’s strange electoral system and fractious political parties virtually guarantee that the government will be a coalition of very different political parties with a strong likelihood that at least one will be a nationalist or ultra-religious one with disproportionate influence in the government. This makes ruling and legislating – even more negotiating with the Palestinians – very difficult, so that on average Israeli governments last only half their permitted term (two years instead of four).”
Therefore I was not overly surprised when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is head of the Likud Party, announced that he would be calling an early general election in the autumn. That was the position on Monday night. However, on Tuesday morning, there was no early election but instead a new government coalition bringing into office the Likud Party which is actually the largest in the current Knesset. That gives the government 94 seats out of 120 – the sort of majority that most dictatorships enjoy.
In Israel, the question asked about political developments outside the country is usually: “What does it mean for the Jews?” Outside Israel, political developments in that country usual provoke the question: “What does this mean for peace or war in the Middle East?”
In this case, the answer is not obvious. On the one hand, Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party, should be expected to bring a more moderating influence to discussions about an attack on Iran to block its supposed plan to develop a military nuclear capability. On the other hand, the formation of a national unity government may be the political cover for just such an attack.
But what do I know? A more sophisticated view of the new situation can be found in this article in today’s “Guardian” newspaper. Another very well-informed view comes from my friend David Eden who is currently resident in the USA and an Israeli ex-pat who was formerly the bureau chief for the Head of MAPAM (the United Workers Party – currently a part of Meretz) in the mid and late 1980s. He writes:
“Of course, the setting up a National Unity Government (NUG) essentially means setting up a Government of National Immobility. As in previous NUGs, the internal contradictions lead to doing nothing of real political risk-taking. Unless Bibi pushes nationalist Yisrael Beitenu and Foreign Minister Avigdor ‘Yvette’ Lieberman out of the coalition (and it’s a possibility, given that Lieberman now becomes somewhat of a junior partner, and also will probably be indicted for corruption/bribery), along with some of the other extreme Right partners (less of a possibility – they are no real threat and their presence helps Bibi cover his rear with the Far Right of the Likud), there will be nothing pushing movement in the comatose peace process with the Palestinians. Plus, a huge coalition will help Bibi withstand pressure from the US, assuming Obama is reelected.
As they say in Hebrew, in any deal someone “has to swallow a frog”. In this case it’s Mofaz, who only 2 months ago said he would not join a coalition with Bibi. I doubt if Mofaz will be stalwart in opposing the duo of Bibi and Barak in their efforts to bomb, bomb, bomb Iran, even though in the past he made some comments on the need to coordinate with our allies, and that a nuclear Iran is not just a problem for Israel. My assumption is that Mofaz is well aware of the polls. Kadima was going down, to maybe 12-13 seats (from 30). This is a way to keep the party alive. And if he could previously say he was going to champion the socio-economic issues, it’s one thing to do it as leader of the opposition when you’re looking for votes, and quite another as Bibi’s partner.
Bibi is obviously the biggest winner in the deal, shoring up his standing both in Israel and on the international scene. He avoids early elections (and even though he was well ahead, it is always a risk, as he well knows from his own election in 1996)
But the biggest loser title in the deal is up for grabs:
- Will it be Yair Lapid, whose brand new Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party will now be stillborn or aborted? Bibi remembers the success that his father Tommy Lapid had when he led Shinui on an anti-religious platform, and caused some serious disruption to ‘business as usual’. He is afraid of Lapid 2.0 tapping into the large sections of the population who are not happy with ‘the situation’ and doing something similar.
- Could it be Ehud Barak? With no real party behind him, it is only Bibi’s support that keeps him afloat. If Mofaz decides that he deserves to take over as Defense Minister (instead of being Deputy PM and Minister without portfolio), will Bibi cut Barak loose?
- The Haredi parties? Both Bibi and Mofaz are making noises about changes to the Tal Law which allows for exemption from military service for the ultra-orthodox. In February 2012 the High Court of Justice ruled that the Tal Law in its current form was unconstitutional and could not be extended beyond August. If they can’t keep the yeshiva boys out of the army, will the ultra-orthodox parties be able to stay in the coalition? But if they abandon the coalition, what happens with the millions they get for their social programs and religious education? I’m sure Mofaz will insist on redistribution of funds to benefit other sectors.
- The Labor party and its new head, Shelly Yechimovich? Although it’s likely that Shelly will be titular ‘Head of the Opposition’ (unless Lieberman leaves the coalition and gets that title), it will be very difficult for her to gain any real successes in fighting any legislation Bibi and Mofaz will want to push through. She may be tempted to join the NUG as a very minor partner, especially if Lieberman and the haredim are forced out. The only bright (itsy-bitsy) spot for her is that by being forced to the Left (just a few days ago she said that she could join a coalition with Bibi if she felt that he is making an effort on improving socio-economic conditions for ALL Israel), she might be able to hold on to the growing support that Labor was getting in polls. It would also push the rival Meretz party back into some sort of alignment with Labor, resulting in Meretz’ probable demise. But this will also force her out of her comfort zone of socio-economic activism, and force her to be more forceful on he Palestinian issue. Not a good scenario for the Left. Unless Labor joins the NUG, then Meretz becomes THE address for the secular-zionist opposition. When there was the last NUG, Meretz shot up to 10 seats in the Knesset – it could happen again.
- The Peace Camp? Shalom Achshav, Ir Amim, New Israel Fund, etc. will all be negatively impacted. Most Israelis will respond by saying ‘we need to pull together and give the NUG a chance’.”
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Have you had an 11% increase in pay?
May 8th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
I doubt it because, according to this BBC story, the average British worker received a mere 1.1% increase in pay in the last year. Since inflation has been higher than this, it means that British workers have suffered a real decrease in pay at the same time as provision of public services has been cut.
But, we’re all in this together, right? Well, no. According to the same story, the Chief Executives of the FTSE 100 companies have seen an average rise in pay of 11%. Well, perhaps they are so poorly paid that they need a percentage increase 10 times that of the rest of us.
Apparently not. According to the research by Manifest, the typical CEO of an FTSE 100 company earns £3.65 million annually. In fact, this could be an under-estimate. Manifest’s research is based on an analysis of accounts for 60% of the relevant companies. I did a posting a few weeks ago quoting work by Incomes Data Services which suggested that FTSE 100 CEOs average £4.2 million a year.
Is it any wonder that shareholders in a variety of British companies and voters in elections across Europe are rebelling against the unjustifiable inequalities in our societies.
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (0)
A review of one of the best films you’ve never seen
May 8th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
It’s called “The Fall” and it was released in 2008, but I’ve only just come across it. It is a real curiosity and a true gem. Read my review here
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
Elections, elections, elections …
May 7th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Who says that politics is boring? Not me. Granted that I am something of a political junkie, but the last few days have been absolutely fascinating for anyone remotely interested in politics or current affairs here in Europe.
First, on Thursday, we had the local elections in England, Scotland and Wales when the Labour Party did really well. In retrospect this might be seen as confirmation that the Conservative/Liberal Democrat coalition will only be allowed to serve one term of office. I blogged about the results here.
Then, on Sunday, we had the election of a new President for France when the Socialist candidate Francoise Hollande – little known outside France until a year ago and the self-styled ‘Mr Normal’ – beat his Centre-Right opponent Nicolas Sarkozy – the presidential incumbent who will now only have served one term. Sarkozy is the 11th European leader to lose office since the economic crisis in 2008 and Hollande is the first socialist President in France for 17 years. Hollande’s election will rightly force a reappraisal at European level of whether the fierce measures of austerity now need to be tempered with new policies promoting growth. You can read more about the French election here.
Meanwhile, in crisis-riven Greece, national elections saw the two main parties which agreed to the savage EU-imposed cuts – the New Democracy Party and the socialist party Pasok – lose huge numbers of votes, while the electorate turned to anti-austerity parties of left (Syriza) and neo-fascist right (Chrysi Avgi/Golden Dawn). This result will make a new government hard to form and clear policies very difficult to implement and the repercussions will be Europe-wide. You can read more about the Greek election here.
A regional election in Germany caused shock waves too. In the northern state of Schleswig-Holstein, the two parties making up the national coalition – the Christian Democrats and the Free Democrats – both lost support. This coming weekend, there is another regional election in Germany in a much bigger state, North Rhine- Westphalia, and again the Social Democrats and the Greens are expected to gain votes at the expense of the CDU and the FDP. This will undermine the position of Federal German leader Angela Merkel in her discussions with new French President Francoise Hollande.You can read more about the German election here.
In Serbia, this weekend saw the first relatively normal elections with votes for both the president and the parliament. We will not know the result of the parliamentary election until Thursday and the presidential election will go to a second stage on 20 May. But it is already clear that both contests are seeing closely-fought battles between Tomislav Nikolic’s Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) and Boris Tadic’s Democratic Party (DS). You can read more about the Serbian elections here.
As if that was not enough of elections, in Italy yesterday and today town hall elections are being held and this is the first chance to assess support for the post-Berlusconi government of caretaker reformist Mario Monti.
Finally I should mention Russia. The presidential election there was held in March and, to nobody’s surprise, was decisively won by Vladimir Putin which gives him a third term as President which might well lead to a fourth term. The highly controversial election has led to many street protests which have continued with Putin’s assumption of the presidency today. You can read more about the Russian situation here.
Fascinating times …
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
The only good news for the Tories …
May 5th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
… is not actually as good as it first looks. So Boris Johnson, who polled better than his Conservative Party, beat Ken Livingstone, who polled worse than his Labour Party, retains his position as Mayor of London. Yet Boris’s scope for manoeuvre is less than much of the media has highlighted. But first the big picture about Thursday’s local elections in Britain.
As explained here:
- Taking the elections as a whole, Labour won 38% of the votes, while Conservatives fell to 31% with Lib Dems on 16%, and others 15%.
- Taking the elections as a whole, Labour has gained 823 councillors seats, while the Conservatives have lost 405 and the Lib Dems have lost 336.
- Labour has gained control of 22 local councils and held the 39 they already held.
- The Conservatives lost control of 10 councils overall – with Great Yarmouth, Dudley, Plymouth and Essex marginal Harlow falling to Labour.
- In Wales, Labour has had its best results since 1996 taking control of 10 out of the 21 councils.
- In Scotland, Labour won an overall majority in Glasgow, denying the SNP one of its top targets and gained 58 councillors overall.
So what has David Cameron got to be pleased about? Well, his old Eton School and Oxford University chum Boris Johnson – who might yet succeed him as Conservative Party leader – won the London mayoralty, but …
As set out here, Labour won four more seats on the London Assembly taking their total to 12. The Conservative total fell to nine. What does this mean? It means that Boris Johnstone can only get a budget through the Assembly with the two Lib Dems and the two Greens all voting with the Conservatives. Prepare for new fun and games at County Hall …
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (1)
More information on water
May 3rd, 2012 by Roger Darlington
In an earlier posting, I provided a link to some interesting information on water. My renewed fascination with water comes from my recent appointment as Chair of the Customer Challenge Group at South East Water.
In response to that earlier posting, a friend of mine sent me this information:
“Hope you don’t mind me saying but this fact about water and the body [two thirds of your body is water] is more about the body than water. However, this fact means is that all animals are only walking columns of water bonded together by other chemical substances solid and liquid.But it raises an issue. How interesting is water? Very interesting. In fact books have been written on its “strange” qualities. I use inverted commas because all these properties can be explained by physics.Below is a link to a water for dummies. I don’t mean to be insulting because I have found these dummies books very useful in the past.One of the first issues it deals with is that water is less dense as a solid than as a liquid which has far-reaching consequences which the article doesn’t deal with. It is less dense as a solid because of the crystalline nature of ice which means there is more space between the molecules than in the liquid. Most solids are more densely packed so sink in water or their own liquid.The main consequence is that, if this was not so and ice sunk, then in the ice age (as the best example) layer after layer of sea water would sink to the bottom until all the oceans would have ended up as a solid ice sea/ocean with only the top bit melting under the sun when it was hot. The rest would be permanently frozen eliminating the possibility of life.’
Posted in Environment, Science & technology | Comments (0)
A review of “Avengers Assemble”
May 2nd, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Never have so many super-heroes gathered to combat so much evil. See my review here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
Top 25 destinations in the world
May 1st, 2012 by Roger Darlington
I love travelling and have visited a total of 56 countries as you’ll see here. So I was interested to see that the web site Trip Adviser has produced a list of the top 25 destinations in the world here.
Number one is the city in which I live and work: London. In fact, I have been to all of the top 10 locations. Of the full 25, I’ve seen 18. But there are still so many places I want to visit.
What about you? Seen them all? Think some other places should be in the top 25?
Posted in Miscellaneous, My life & thoughts | Comments (4)