The most complicated politics in the democratic world
Israel may be a small country of just 8 million, but its politics matter, both because it is the only genuine democracy in the Middle East and it is the strongest military power in the region. I have tried to explain Israel’s political system here.
In the conclusion of my essay, I state: “Israeli’s strange electoral system and fractious political parties virtually guarantee that the government will be a coalition of very different political parties with a strong likelihood that at least one will be a nationalist or ultra-religious one with disproportionate influence in the government. This makes ruling and legislating – even more negotiating with the Palestinians – very difficult, so that on average Israeli governments last only half their permitted term (two years instead of four).”
Therefore I was not overly surprised when Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is head of the Likud Party, announced that he would be calling an early general election in the autumn. That was the position on Monday night. However, on Tuesday morning, there was no early election but instead a new government coalition bringing into office the Likud Party which is actually the largest in the current Knesset. That gives the government 94 seats out of 120 – the sort of majority that most dictatorships enjoy.
In Israel, the question asked about political developments outside the country is usually: “What does it mean for the Jews?” Outside Israel, political developments in that country usual provoke the question: “What does this mean for peace or war in the Middle East?”
In this case, the answer is not obvious. On the one hand, Shaul Mofaz, head of the Kadima party, should be expected to bring a more moderating influence to discussions about an attack on Iran to block its supposed plan to develop a military nuclear capability. On the other hand, the formation of a national unity government may be the political cover for just such an attack.
But what do I know? A more sophisticated view of the new situation can be found in this article in today’s “Guardian” newspaper. Another very well-informed view comes from my friend David Eden who is currently resident in the USA and an Israeli ex-pat who was formerly the bureau chief for the Head of MAPAM (the United Workers Party – currently a part of Meretz) in the mid and late 1980s. He writes:
“Of course, the setting up a National Unity Government (NUG) essentially means setting up a Government of National Immobility. As in previous NUGs, the internal contradictions lead to doing nothing of real political risk-taking. Unless Bibi pushes nationalist Yisrael Beitenu and Foreign Minister Avigdor ‘Yvette’ Lieberman out of the coalition (and it’s a possibility, given that Lieberman now becomes somewhat of a junior partner, and also will probably be indicted for corruption/bribery), along with some of the other extreme Right partners (less of a possibility – they are no real threat and their presence helps Bibi cover his rear with the Far Right of the Likud), there will be nothing pushing movement in the comatose peace process with the Palestinians. Plus, a huge coalition will help Bibi withstand pressure from the US, assuming Obama is reelected.
As they say in Hebrew, in any deal someone “has to swallow a frog”. In this case it’s Mofaz, who only 2 months ago said he would not join a coalition with Bibi. I doubt if Mofaz will be stalwart in opposing the duo of Bibi and Barak in their efforts to bomb, bomb, bomb Iran, even though in the past he made some comments on the need to coordinate with our allies, and that a nuclear Iran is not just a problem for Israel. My assumption is that Mofaz is well aware of the polls. Kadima was going down, to maybe 12-13 seats (from 30). This is a way to keep the party alive. And if he could previously say he was going to champion the socio-economic issues, it’s one thing to do it as leader of the opposition when you’re looking for votes, and quite another as Bibi’s partner.
Bibi is obviously the biggest winner in the deal, shoring up his standing both in Israel and on the international scene. He avoids early elections (and even though he was well ahead, it is always a risk, as he well knows from his own election in 1996)
But the biggest loser title in the deal is up for grabs:
- Will it be Yair Lapid, whose brand new Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party will now be stillborn or aborted? Bibi remembers the success that his father Tommy Lapid had when he led Shinui on an anti-religious platform, and caused some serious disruption to ‘business as usual’. He is afraid of Lapid 2.0 tapping into the large sections of the population who are not happy with ‘the situation’ and doing something similar.
- Could it be Ehud Barak? With no real party behind him, it is only Bibi’s support that keeps him afloat. If Mofaz decides that he deserves to take over as Defense Minister (instead of being Deputy PM and Minister without portfolio), will Bibi cut Barak loose?
- The Haredi parties? Both Bibi and Mofaz are making noises about changes to the Tal Law which allows for exemption from military service for the ultra-orthodox. In February 2012 the High Court of Justice ruled that the Tal Law in its current form was unconstitutional and could not be extended beyond August. If they can’t keep the yeshiva boys out of the army, will the ultra-orthodox parties be able to stay in the coalition? But if they abandon the coalition, what happens with the millions they get for their social programs and religious education? I’m sure Mofaz will insist on redistribution of funds to benefit other sectors.
- The Labor party and its new head, Shelly Yechimovich? Although it’s likely that Shelly will be titular ‘Head of the Opposition’ (unless Lieberman leaves the coalition and gets that title), it will be very difficult for her to gain any real successes in fighting any legislation Bibi and Mofaz will want to push through. She may be tempted to join the NUG as a very minor partner, especially if Lieberman and the haredim are forced out. The only bright (itsy-bitsy) spot for her is that by being forced to the Left (just a few days ago she said that she could join a coalition with Bibi if she felt that he is making an effort on improving socio-economic conditions for ALL Israel), she might be able to hold on to the growing support that Labor was getting in polls. It would also push the rival Meretz party back into some sort of alignment with Labor, resulting in Meretz’ probable demise. But this will also force her out of her comfort zone of socio-economic activism, and force her to be more forceful on he Palestinian issue. Not a good scenario for the Left. Unless Labor joins the NUG, then Meretz becomes THE address for the secular-zionist opposition. When there was the last NUG, Meretz shot up to 10 seats in the Knesset – it could happen again.
- The Peace Camp? Shalom Achshav, Ir Amim, New Israel Fund, etc. will all be negatively impacted. Most Israelis will respond by saying ‘we need to pull together and give the NUG a chance’.”