How would you have voted?
June 18th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Since I obtained the right to vote 44 years ago, I have never missed an opportunity to cast my vote, whether in a national or local election. It has not been difficult for me to decide how to cast my vote since principles and ideology matter more to me than current policy or the particular candidate, so I have always voted Labour.
I am aware, however, that if I lived in another country my decision might not be so easy. I was struck by this thought when considering three national elections held this weekend in very different countries and circumstances.
In France, would I have voted for the Centre-Left Socialist Party or the neo-Gaullist Union for a Popular Movement (UMP)? I would not have hesitated. I am delighted that the Socialists now hold the Presidency and both chambers in France.
In Greece, would I have voted for the New Democracy Party or the new and resurgent Syriza? On the one hand, I want Greece to stay in the Eurozone, so I would have been tempted to vote NDP. On the other hand, I think that the austerity measures imposed by Greece’s creditors are too harsh, so I would have been tempted to support Syriza. In the end, I guess I would have voted for Pasok, the socialist party, but I would have been concerned that, by supporting a party with relatively low support, I was opting out of deciding who was going to form the next Greek government.
In Egypt, in the first vaguely democratic election for president, would I have voted for the former prime minister and ex-air commander Ahmed Shafiq or the Muslim Brotherhood candidate Mohammad Mursi? On the one hand, I want a complete break with the regime of the former dictator Hosni Mubarek which would have led me to Mursi. On the other hand, I want a political system that is not dominated by religious fundamentalists and will offer economic and social stability which might have led me to Shafiq. I don’t know what I would have done – probably taken a risk with Mursi.
Democracy is complicated …
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Why the Olympic torch will not see the centre of Darlington
June 17th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Explanation here.
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (2)
Is the United States in unstoppable decline?
June 16th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
This is the question at the heart of the book I read during my recent holiday in the USA [my account of the trip here].
The book by Edward Luce is entitled “Time To Start Thinking: America And The Spectre Of Decline”. You can read my review here.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)
The rise and rise of baby Catrin
June 15th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Regular readers of NightHawk will know how delighted (OK, besotted) I am to be a grandfather. Baby Catrin is now almost one and a half and remains an absolute delight.
I like to see her once a week, but recently we have been to Washington & New York and Catrin & parents have been to San Antonio, so I haven’t been able to see her for some time.
When I collected her from nursery this week, it was four weeks since I had been with her – and what a change. She is taller and heavier, she has more teeth, she is walking more confidently, and she is so much more expressive.
Her mum & dad have taught her on request to point to her nose, mouth and ears and to the questioner’s nose, mouth and ears. I was so impressed. We need to start saving now for her university expenses.
“I’m a big girl now, ain’t I granddad?”
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (2)
Will Barack Obama be re-elected? (1)
June 12th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Most people outside the United States assume that Obama will win a second term in November. After all, he is the incumbent, he has not suffered any personal or political scandal, he is so intelligent and fluent, he baled out the auto industry, he is reforming the financial system, he is introducing a new healthcare system, he has pulled troops out of Iraq and is in the process of doing the same in Afghanistan
However, in the United States where I have just spent two weeks, things look very different.
To conservatives and Republicans – specially of the Tea Party variety – he favours federal spending programmes, he wants to increase taxes, he supports gay marriage, and what’s more he’s an intellectual (which is true) and black (not that they admit this is a factor) and in some minds he is not a US citizen, not a Christian, and a socialist and communist (these people have never visited a communist country).
Meanwhile, to liberals and Democrats, he has failed to be as radical as his election campaign led them to hope, he has compromised with Congress too easily, he has done nothing to support the unions, he has put security before liberty on too many issues, and abroad he has not closed down Guantanamo Bay prison and he has supported drone attacks and a kill list.
So, in opinion polls, Barack Obama and Mitt Romney are pretty much neck and neck at the moment.
In fact, in a US presidential election, what is important is not just how people vote but where they vote.
This is because it is perfectly possible for one candidate to win more votes than the other nationwide but still lose the election. This is what happened with Al Gore running against George W Bush in 2000. The explanation for this is that the choice of president is not determined by the number of votes cast by the electorate but the number of votes allocated by the Electoral College which, according to the the US Constitution, has the responsibility for selecting the president.
Now, of the 50 states (plus the District of Columbia), the majority can be reliably assumed to vote either Democrat (a blue state) or Republican (a red state), so the only states that really matter are those – around 12 – where the outcome is uncertain (what the political commentators call ‘competitive’).
So, to estimate how the likely presidential candidates – Obama for the Democrats and Romney for the Republicans – are probably going to do in the forthcoming election, we need to know two things:
1) How many Electoral College votes does each state have? You’ll find the answer here.
2) Which states are fairly certain for Obama and Romney respectively and which are in contention? You’ll find an estimate here.
If the Real Clear Politics estimate is correct, Obama and Romney are close in the nationwide polls, but the President is better placed in terms of likely votes in the Electoral College.
Clearly the states that really, really matter are ones with lots of Electoral College votes which are still competitive – places such as Florida (29 votes), Pennsylvania (20) and perhaps especially Ohio (18).
In the end, it will probably come down to turnout on the two sides. How angry are Republicans? How disillusioned are Democrats? In five months time, we will know.
Meanwhile watch this space – I’ll be blogging on the contest as it unfolds.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (2)
A different view of Iraq
June 11th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
I’ve visited 56 countries and would love to go to more. I learn so much on my travels and see the world very differently.
One country which fascinates me is Iraq. I would not be willing to travel to most parts of the country in current circumstances, but I would be open to visiting the Kurdish part of the country in the north.
My friend Gary Kent has now been there nine times and you can read his latest report here.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
An account of our two week holiday in the USA
June 10th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Since I started maintaining a web site 13 years ago, whenever I’ve travelled abroad on holiday, I’ve produced an account of the trip for my web site – see full list here.
Usually, this takes me a week to two but, for our holiday in the USA visiting Washington and New York, I took an iPad and composed the basic text of the account as we went along. So at home I just had to do the formatting and add appropriate hyperlinks. You can read the result here.
I’ll add some photographs later. Meanwhile enjoy.
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (0)
Versions of free speech – the debate continues
June 9th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Almost a month ago now, I did a posting about the different approaches in the United States and Europe to the sensitive issue of free speech.
I have just returned from a two-week holiday in the USA where this subject came up several times in conversation. I encouraged one of my American friends to post a comment on my original blog piece which now has three thoughtful comments in all. You can check out the debate here.
What do you think?
Posted in American current affairs, World current affairs | Comments (0)
Have you missed me?
June 9th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Sorry that I haven’t been posting to NightHawk for the last two week, but normal service will now be resumed with the usual daily postings.
My wife and I have been away for a two-week holiday in the United States – my first visit since 2000 and her first visit since 1998. We spent the first week staying with friends just outside Washington DC and travelled into and around the city. Then we spent the second week with a friend who lives south of New York City and commuted into the city most days.
We had a brilliant time and, as usual with our holidays. I’ll be adding a full account to my web site. Since I took my iPad this time, I was able to write up this account as we went along, so the text – if not, the photographs – should be up soon.
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (2)
Don’t you just love the British weather?
May 23rd, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Some countries don’t have four seasons in a year; here in Britain we can have four seasons in a day. The weather is so variable that it is an ending source of – usually meaningless – conversation.
After a really cold March and a real wet April, suddenly we are having a very hot May. Temperatures at this time of year usually average 14-16C, but today London (where I live) is experiencing 25C and the hottest part of the country is part of Sunderland with 27C [more information here].
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (2)