Driving home the latest murder statistics
July 20th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Most people are convinced that crime levels have never been higher and are continually on the rise with murder rates similarly on the increase because it seems that we live in an ever more violent society. In fact, the statistics present a totally different and much more reassuring picture.
This week, we had the latest data from the Crime Survey for England & Wales which covers around 84% of the UK population.
This shows that last year recorded crime fell by 4%. This represents a continuation of the downward trend that we have seen since 1995 and the total number of offences has now fallen below 4 million – with a rising population – for the first time in 23 years. This is the longest sustained fall in overall crime since the Second World War. Of course, recorded crime is not all crime, but comparing like with like does tend to show trends and serious crime does tend to be recorded.
The most serious crime of all is murder. Last year, the number of murders fell by 14% to 550 homicides. This is the lowest level since 2002 when the figure was inflated by the 172 murders attributed to Dr Harold Shipman. Excluding this special case, last year’s murder rate was the lowest since 1983. The number of murders rose from about 300 a year in the early 1960s to an annual death toll of more than 800 a decade ago but, in the last nine years, the number of murders has almost halved.
The most important feature of murder statistics is that most murders are not perpetrated by a stranger such as a serious criminal. More than two thirds of murders involve a partner or ex partner or stem from family related violence. Women are specially at risk from a violent partner and children are particularly at risk from a step-parent. So much for the fear of strangers.
You will find a detailed breakdown of the latest crime statistics for England & Wales here.
These trends are, of course, very welcome. But how do we explain them? What drives down crime rates and especially the number of murders? Is it rising prosperity, in which case the current deep and prolonged recession might be expected to drive crime levels back up. Is it police numbers, in which case the planned 20% cuts in police levels might be expected to lead to more crime.
The explanation might be more subtle and reflect a change in attitude towards crime, especially violent crime in the home. Rightly domestic violence is now treated as a far more serious crime than used to be the case.
It is not just in Britain that we see these trends. Right across Europe and North America – even in the USA where today we had an appalling murder spree – the murder rate has been falling. Maybe, just maybe, we are becoming more civilised.
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (3)
The films of Emily Blunt
July 17th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
I’m a fan of British actress Emily Blunt whose career is going from strength to strength.
This summer, she has been in three releases, all of which I have seen:”Your Sister’s Sister” [my review here], “The Five Year-Engagement” [my review here], and “Salmon Fishing In The Yemen” [my review here].
Last weekend, i caught up with Blunt’S breakthrough movie: the 2004 film “My Summer Of Love” [my review here].
You can read more about Emily Blunt’s career here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
Why America is the greatest country in the world
July 16th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Actually it isn’t – as explained in this great clip from the first episode of “The Newsroom” which I ‘ve just watched on British television (Sky Atlantic channel):
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (4)
What the upcoming American elections are really about
July 14th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Berkeley professor Robert Reich – Secretary of Labor under President Bill Clinton – gives a short but cogent explanation in this video:
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An account of the American Civil War
July 14th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Earlier this ‘summer’, my wife and I had a holiday in the United States which included a visit to the Civil War battlefield of Gettysburg [my account here]. Our one day tour of the site led me to buy a history of the American Civil War so that i could put the Battle of Gettysburg in context.
I have now read the book and reviewed it here.
Posted in History | Comments (1)
How deep is your love?
July 14th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
One man’s love was deep indeed – as revealed here.
Posted in Miscellaneous | Comments (0)
How much dissent is there in Iran?
July 13th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
We tend to think of authoritarian regimes as monolithic, but they are often as riven with dissent as democracies. It is just that we do not know this because of course such authoritarian regimes do not have a free media.
Take Iran. The power structure in that country is complicated and fractured as explained in this book. I read the book as preparation for a trip to Iran three years ago where we found:
“.. everyone was astonishingly friendly, more so that any other country that Roger & Vee had visited. We would greet passers-by with “Salam!” and they would unfailingly smile back. They would approach us constantly with combinations of the following phrases in broken English: “Hello. How are you? Where you from? How you like Iran?” They were so keen to meet us and talk with us and even to be photographed with us. They would explain that their Government told them that Westerns were enemies, but insisted that they were delighted that we were visiting Iran and always wished us a good trip.”
Today there is a report that a former general in Iran’s feared Revolutionary Guards has broken ranks and come out against the regime. In a letter to a leading opposition activist, he declares:
“I’m writing this letter to you to tell our people that there are still many generals and members of staff within the Revolutionary Guards who are opposed to these crimes and are waiting to join the people.”
In the observations section of my account of our trip to Iran, I wrote:
“A lot of what makes Iranian society what it is today is hidden to the visitor. You do not see the corruption which shapes so much of the bureaucracy of government and business at all levels in an economy where three-quarters of companies are state-controlled. You do not see the black market that exists for so many goods including alcohol and drugs. You do not see the inflation and the unemployment or the poverty of the rural areas and the affluence of the super rich. You do not see the lifestyle that people live privately in their homes where a much more liberal approach is often at work.
For Roger & Vee, there was a sense of being in a country seething with a desire for change – the sort of atmosphere we found in Czechoslovakia before the revolution of 1989 or in Cuba when we were there just after Fidel Castro stepped down in 2008. Change – whenever and however it comes – is likely to be driven by the young and by the women. Almost half of all Iranians are under the age of 30 due to the pro-child policies after the Islamic revolution, while over 60% of university students are now female.”
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
House of Lords reform – how long do we have to wait?
July 11th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
As I have explained in my “Short Guide To The British Political System”, Britain’s House of Lords is an absurd and indefensible anachronism.
It is the only unelected second chamber in the world except Lesotho. It is the only second chamber in the world which gives automatic seats to religious figures except Iran. As explained here, a new study reveals that 124 of the 775 lords are in the pay of finance firms or have financial services clients.
The Coalition Government has now brought forward proposals for a largely elected upper chamber with 80% elected by proportional representation and 20% appointed by more independent procedures than currently. The proposals are not perfect ,but they deserve to be supported – and last night MPs voted in favour of the Bill by 462 votes to 124.
But, in practice, this vote means little if the Commons does not also support what is called a programme motion which would schedule the time for debate which – because it is a constitutional bill – has to be on the floor of the House at all stages.
The intended vote on the programme motion was cancelled because the Labour Party opposes it and 91 Conservative MPs had threatened to vote against it as well. I believe that Ed Miliband needs to rethink the stand of the Parliamentary Labour Party and then negogiate and support a version of the timetable motion if and when it comes back in the Autumn.
There is never a perfect set of proposals or a perfect time to implement them, but we’ve had this debate for a century now and one of the world’s most respected and vibrant democracies can no longer remain in the embarrassing company of Lesotho and Iran.
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (0)
Three films in three days
July 10th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Regular visitors to NightHawk will know of my enthusiasm for the movies and last week I managed to visit the cinema on three consecutive days to see three very different films:
- the super-hero movie “The Amazing Spider-Man” – my review here
- the sensitive romantic comedy “Your Sister’s Sister” – my review here
- the compelling financial drama “Margin Call” – my review here
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
The 150th anniversary of the Xaverian College
July 8th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
There are so many American movies where former high school students return for a 5th or 10th anniversary event – but we don’t have this sort of tradition in Britain. Imagine my surprise then when I was invited to return to the secondary school which I left in 1966 – an amazing 46 years ago.
At that time, Xaverian College in Manchester was a Roman Catholic, single-sex, direct grant grammar school. I attended from 1959-1966 and, in the last year, I was the School Captain. Here I obtained nine ‘O’ Levels and four ‘A’ Levels before going on to university.
This year the staff and students, both current and former, are celebrating the 150th anniversary of the founding of the college. The Xaverian Brothers – the Catholic order who ran the school – first came to England in 1848 to teach at St. Marie’s parish school in Bury. Two years later, they moved to Granby Row in Manchester and began teaching in the crypt of the church. In 1862, the Brothers were asked to take charge of the Manchester Catholic Collegiate Institute.
In 1907, permission was given for the Brothers to relocate to new accommodation in Victoria Park in Rusholme in south Manchester where the school has remained ever since and where I walked each day from my home in Fallowfield. The Manchester Catholic Collegiate Institute was renamed Xaverian College. In 1977, the grammar school was changed into a Sixth Form College and it is now co-educational and reflects the ethnic diversity of the city. The trusteeship of the College was transferred from the Xaverian Brothers to Salford Diocese in 2001.
This weekend, I went up from London to Manchester to attend a special mass and reception to mark the foundation of Xaverian College one and half centuries ago. It was a weird experience returning to the site of my secondary school after four and a half decades. There are now twice as many buidlings and three times as many students and the range of ‘A’ Levels on offer is vastly greater than in my day. The room where the refreshments were served used to be the gym and the former music room now houses a Costa cafe.
But the afternoon was a very pleasant experience to which I owe particular thanks to Tony Knowles who invited me.
Tony arrived at the school in 1965 when I was the School Captain and he still remembers my speech at the college’s Speech Day at the Free Trade Hall (now demolished). He returned to the school as an economics teacher and is now the Vice-Principal. Tony showed me round some of the college and gave me a packet of personal mementos including the full examination results of my class in 1963 when I was top of the class.
The highlight of my visit was an opportunity to meet my former headmaster Brother Cyril. He appointed me School Captian and I used to visit him often in his study where he was noted for his intimidating reticence. I thought that he was old at the time, but I now realise that he was only 40 or so. Today he is aged 87 and lives in retirement with the American Xaverian Brothers just outside Boston.
It was a delight to sit with him and have a little chat. He told me: “You were a very good public speaker … I thought that you would go into politics”. He wasn’t far wrong: I still do public speaking (I’m addressing an Ofwat conference tomorrow) and, early in my career, I worked for the Parliamentary Labour Party and a Labour Government for six years and contested two General Elections.
Roger (64) with Brother Cyril (87)
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (51)