What now for Russia? Three possible scenarios to resolve the current crisis. None of them is attractive, some are dangerous.
December 17th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
Commenting on the sharp rise in interest rates in Russia, Anastasia Nesvetailova, Professor of International Political Economy at City University London, says:
“In the middle of last night, the Russian Central Bank made a desperate attempt to shore up support for the rouble, a move that is unlikely to save the currency or the economy beyond the very short term.
When a crisis of this nature erupts, countries tend to seek external help. Putin’s Russia has very few friends.
Against this bleak background, there are three possible scenarios to resolve the current crisis. None of them is attractive, some are dangerous.
Scenario One: Russia is saved by China and becomes a satellite of China. This merger starts a global realignment of powers and geopolitics.
Scenario Two: Putin is ejected from power by domestic clan wars or popular uprising; Russia returns to the Western fold.
Scenario Three: The Kremlin attempts to resolve the economic crisis by entering into another war conflict.
The views of critical voices in Russia suggest that scenario two is already under way. Many believe that Putin is isolated and effectively only an arbiter, caught between powerful interest groups. Lately, many of his loyal friends and allies were either removed from power or in some cases, put under house arrest.Some analysts believe there is a power struggle between a powerful siloviki clan (KGB/Defence Ministry) and the first generation of Putin’s own state oligarchs who now are affected by the sanctions. The financial sanctions on Putin have had the untended effect of strengthening the position of the Russian Defence Ministry and the neo-conservative clan.”
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (2)
Ever heard of the manic pixie dream girl?
December 16th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
No, neither had I until i was talking to a young woman who has done film studies.
It’s a standard character type in certain movies – see here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
The Dane who wants to visit every country in the world – without flying and without frills
December 15th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
I love travel to new countries, but 35-year-old Danish Torbjørn Pedersen has taken global travelling to a whole new level.
He wants to visit every nation on earth – 193 member states of the United Nations or 203 countries including additional territories. He plans to do all this travelling without taking an aircraft and on a mere £12 a day. He reckons it will take at least four years.
So far, he has been to 68 countries. I have been to 66 – but it has taken me 66 years, I have taken lots of flights, and it has cost been a great more than £12 a day. On the other hand, there is something to be said for taking time to explore the world.
You can learn more about the quest of Torbjørn Pedersen here.
Posted in Miscellaneous | Comments (0)
It’s way time for corporations to pay their fair share of tax
December 14th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
In an article in today’s “Observer” newspaper, Will Hutton puts the case very clearly and concisely:
“If companies in Britain paid, proportionally, as much tax as they did in the last year of Mrs Thatcher’s prime ministership, the country would be £30bn better off. There would still be a deficit, but the fiscal situation would be transformed. The crisis talk of the unprecedented reshaping of the state to the same level – in terms of percentage of GDP – as it stood in the 1930s would recede. It would not be necessary.”
Hutton underlines his main point:
“Even 10 years ago companies were contributing proportionally around £20bn more to the UK exchequer than they are now. If the reduction in corporate tax rates engineered by Mr Osborne had been matched by a surge of investment and high wage jobs, the foregone tax revenue might have been justified. Instead, investment rates languish, rising only very slowly from a very low base – while the British state faces a generational fiscal crisis.”
This is why the diverted profits tax is so necessary and must be just the start of a fairer tax burden:
“So last week Mr Osborne announced the popular profits diversion tax, or Google tax. It is widely advertised that he is doing all in his power to increase the tax take from rogue multinationals who artificially organise their affairs to reduce their British taxes. Company directors have a new duty to notify Her Majesty’s Revenue and Customs every year if, in their opinion, their tax arrangements qualify as artificial: instead of paying 21% corporation tax they would pay a penalty 25%”
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (0)
A review of the best children’s film of 2014
December 13th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
This week, Vee and I took our granddaughter Catrin to see “Paddington” and we all loved it. You can read my review here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (4)
Trouble at the manger
December 13th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
At my granddaughter’s nursery, casting is now complete for the nativity play.
She has been cast as an innkeeper but she wants to be an angel (figures).
Her best friend has been cast as a donkey but she wants to be Mary (diva).
I feel another religious war coming on …
Posted in My life & thoughts, Uncategorized | Comments (0)
Word of the day: disambiguation
December 11th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
This week, i had occasion to have a fascinating time with an American academic who has just received a PhD from a British university and is currently studying the whole area of privacy (or lack of it) on the Internet.
He is from New York and, on the morning of 9/11, he was working some five blocks south of the World Trade Center when the two airliners brought down the twin towers. His personal account of that experience was dramatic and moving.
We then went on to discuss his current research interests and the subject of passwords came up. I mentioned my column on this subject and, in the course of the conversation, my colleague used a word that I had never heard of and which I even wondered if it existed.
He introduced to me the term disambiguation. I’ve now looked it up and, of course, it does exist. It means “the process of resolving the conflicts that arise when a single term is ambiguous”. In the context of our discussion, it referred to how we can establish a clear personal identity for use of online services.
You can learn more about the term here. It seems that there is even ‘double disambiguation’ and ‘incomplete disambiguation’! Don’t you just love academics?
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
What does your password say about you?
December 9th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
I write a regular column on IT matters for a trade union magazine and the latest piece looks at the fascinating subject of passwords. How people choose their password often tells us something interesting about them.
Check out my column here.
Posted in Internet | Comments (4)
Why older people are usually happier and what younger people can learn from this
December 8th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
An article in the “New York Times”, David Brooks argues:
“It’s comforting to know that, for many, life gets happier with age. But it’s more useful to know how individuals get better at doing the things they do. The point of culture is to spread that wisdom from old to young; to put that thousand-year-heart in a still young body.”
Posted in Miscellaneous | Comments (0)
The tradition continues: the Darlington Christmas letter
December 7th, 2014 by Roger Darlington
Vee and I are spending evenings writing Christmas cards to friends at home and abroad. We like to pass on some news but can’t write too much in each card, so as usual we are using the format of a Christmas letter which many say they enjoy.
You can read the letter for 2014 here.
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (0)