Why does Iowa always vote first anyway?
February 3rd, 2020 by Roger Darlington
Today Democratic Party supporters in the state of Iowa will hold caucuses to decide who they want as their candidate in November’s American presidential election. Iowa always goes first in the selection process which gives this small, rural, white state exceptional importance – but why?
Well, it hasn’t in fact always been the case. Democrats started the practice in 1972 and the Republicans followed in 1976. When Jimmy Carter surprisingly won Iowa in 1972 and went on to become both the candidate and the president, the importance of the state being first became firmly established.
“The really important thing to remember about Iowa is not that it’s first because it’s important. Iowa is important because it’s first,” said Kathy O’Bradovich, political columnist for the Des Moines Register
But, still, why does Iowa go first?
It happened after the 1968 Democratic National Convention which was marred by violence over the Vietnam War and racial tension. The Democratic Party nationally and in Iowa decided they wanted to change their process to make it more inclusive.
Part of that meant spreading the presidential nominating schedule out in each state. Since Iowa has one of the more complex processes — precinct caucuses, county conventions, district conventions, followed by a state convention — it had to start really early.
You can learn more here.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)
“The Night Of The Bayonets” – a World War Two story that you’ve never heard
February 1st, 2020 by Roger Darlington
In the dying days of the Second World War, a group of Georgian soliders rebelled against their German ‘comrades’ on Texel Island off the coast of The Netherlands. It’s an amazing story brought to light by my good friend Eric Lee.
In December, he was interviewed by Dan Snow (also known as “The History Guy”) about his upcoming book, “The Night of the Bayonets”. The interview went live on the History Hit website this week and you can listen to it here.
Posted in History | Comments (0)
While British politics has calmed down a lot, American politics remains as exciting as ever
January 31st, 2020 by Roger Darlington
By the end of today, Britain will have left the European Union after being a member for 47 years. A foreign friend asked me if there was an air of excitement. I explained that, since the decisive general election of 12 December 2019, there has been a sense of resignation. Those who supported Brexit thought it should have happened soon after the referendum, while those who opposed Brexit (which includes me) are really sad at our departure.
Meanwhile, over in the United States, there has been massive media coverage of the impeachment proceedings in the House of Representatives and now the Senate. As expected the Democrat-controlled House supported Articles of Impeachment, but the Republican-controlled Senate will dismiss the charges.
The only questions are: will the Senate agree to call witnesses and how damaging will the Congressional proceedings be to Donald Trump’s chances of re-election to the White House? It looks like the Senate will block the attempt to call witnesses – in which case proceedings could be over in a day or two – but then I expect that former National Security Adviser John Bolton will go public on television with confirmation that Trump did insist on a ‘quid pro quo’ with Ukraine.
Of course, we still do not know who the Democrats will field to oppose Trump in November’s presidential election, but the nomination race is about to enter a decisive phase.
Iowa will hold its caucuses this Monday 3 February; New Hampshire will have its primary on Tuesday 11 February; Nevada will hold its caucuses on Saturday 22 February; South Carolina will have its primary on Saturday 29 February. All of these four states are small and the first two are very white – so not representative of the overall electorate but maybe decisive in choosing the eventual winner.
Vermont’s independent senator Bernie Sanders looks like doing really well in these early races and the Democratic establishment is scared that, if he eventually wins the nomination, it will be a repeat of the Jeremy Corbyn experience in the UK: a man who is enormously popular with activist party supporters but unappealing to the voters at large.
Former Vice-President Joe Biden may do badly in the early voting and his assumed support among African Americans will not help him in the first four states in the nomination contest. But he has enough money to stay in the race even if initially he does poorly.
The radical Elizabeth Warren and the centrist Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar are the other main contenders in these early polls. However, the billionaire Michael Blumberg is not running in these four states but spending an unprecedented amount on media in the states that will vote later.
So things may not become much clearer until Super Tuesday 3 March when no less than 14 states have primaries, including huge ones like California.
Posted in American current affairs, British current affairs | Comments (1)
Last of the RAF’s Battle of Britain fighter aces dies – but the victory was not a wholly British effort
January 30th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
The Battle of Britain in 1940 was a decisive turning point in British history and we owe an immense debt of gratitude to the 3,000 Royal Air Force pilots who defended this country against a proposed German invasion.
We have just heard the news that the last of the British aces of that conflict has died aged 101. He was Paul Farnes who shot down five Luftwaffe aircraft in the Battle and more later in the war. But this is a time to remember that one-fifth of all the RAF’s pilots in the Battle of Britain were not in fact British.
There were contingents from many other Allies countries, most notably Poland and Czechoslovakia. The 88 Czech pilots included Josef Frantisek, who was the top-scoring RAF pilot of the Battle, and Karel Kuttelwascher, the father of my ex-wife. You can read more about the contribition of Czechs to the wartime RAF here.
Posted in History | Comments (0)
Could the explanation for dark energy be something called massive gravity?
January 25th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
Sometimes it’s good to raise our eyes above national and global politics and think about cosmological matters. For instance, why is the universe expanding at an accelerating rate when the known laws of physics suggest that this ballooning should be slowing down?
The explanation might be something to do with what scientists have called dark energy which is estimated to account for 70% of the contents of the universe. A radical theory that would support this is called massive gravity which – contrary to Einstein’s theory of general relativity – postulates that the particles that mediate the gravitational force have mass.
A theortectical physicist promoting this theory is Professor Claudia de Rham and you can read a little more about her thinking here.
Now, didn’t that take your mind off Trump and the coronavirus?
Posted in Science & technology | Comments (0)
Who would be the Democrats’ best choice to defeat Donald Trump in the battle for the White House?
January 24th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
The ‘New York Times” editorial board spent a lot of time talking with the candidates and deliberating on their preferred individual. In the end and most unusually, they decide to back two candidates: Elizabeth Warren and Amy Klobuchar.
This feature is a thoughtful assessment of the strengths and weaknesses of the different personalities running for the candidacy, so it is worth reading.
Some of my closest American friends are backing Bernie Sanders again but, if I were an American, I think I would be supporting Elizabeth Warren. Let’s see – the contest starts in earnest very soon.
Iowa will hold its caucuses on Monday 3 February; New Hampshire will have its primary on Tuesday 11 February; Nevada will hold its caucuses on Saturday 22 February; South Carolina will have its primary on Saturday 29 February.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)
How liberal is America’s Democratic Party?
January 21st, 2020 by Roger Darlington
Last weekend, I went on a one-day course at London’s City Literary Institute with the title “Liberalism And The Democratic Party: From FDR To Today”. The course was delivered by Brian Kennedy, a knowledgeable and eloquent American who hails from Boston.
We were told that a progressive wing of American politics first developed in the Republican Party with Teddy Roosevelt becoming the first progressive US president. The Democratic Party first embraced a progressive agenda with the election of Franklin D Roosevelt, a distant relative of Teddy Roosevelt. He took office after three years of the Depression and instituted a radical programme of economic stimulus, job creation and relief of poverty which he called the New Deal. FDR went on to win an unprecedented four terms in the White House in 1932, 1936, 1940 and 1944 before he died in office.
Originally, FDR’s running mate had been the Left-winger Henry Wallace, but the party managers judged him to be too radical, so he was replaced by Harry Truman who took over from FDR in 1945. He developed a package of policies that he called a Fair Deal which included proposals for a national health care system which were abandoned. He promoted racial liberalism.
The next Democratic president was John F Kennedy whose support for civil rights was actually begrudging. Perhaps surprisingly, it was Lyndon B Johnson – who took over from JFK when he was assassinated – that turned things around with a collection of radical policies which he called the Great Society and the War of Poverty. He was a powerful advocate of desegregation which caused Democrats to lose their historic control of the South.
Jimmy Carter was a rather conservative Democratic president. Bill Clinton, in spite of his approach of triangulation, was more radical. He made a failed attempt at reforming health care and proved to be particularly popular with African-Americans.
During the years of the second Bush presidency, Democrats tended to replace the term liberal by progressive. The advent of the first black occupant of the White House with Barack Obama promised much to the progressives. He did deliver reform of health care but, in many respects, he was a cautious leader and his policy of targeted assassinations by drones did not win him favour in certain quarters of the party.
In so far as it is possible to summarise a day of discussion, I guess the conclusion has to be that the Democratic Party has never been that liberal or progressive, certainly since the exceptional historic circumstances that prevailed when FDR first took office. There has been a real hesitancy in the party about moving away from the centre in case it upsets the electorate too much.
We saw this tension very dramatically when Bernie Sanders (not actually a Democrat) ran so closely against Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination. We are seeing it now with the strong showing by both Sanders and Elizabeth Warren in the current nomination race.
Among many factors, two stand out as making it tough for the United States to have a genuinely Left-wing party: first, the electoral system which effectively demands that political parties appeal to a majority of the electorate; second, the massive influence of money in American politics which means that the rich can fund huge campaigns and lobbies against any progressive candidate or policy.
But maybe this year will see the beginning of transformational change …
Posted in American current affairs, History | Comments (0)
A review of the important new film “Bombshell”
January 19th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
The #MeToo movement has been a much-needed and long-overdue exposition of the scale and severity of sexual harassment especially in the workplace. This important film sets out how one powerful man – Roger Ailes, the founder of the hugely successful Fox News television network – was eventually brought down for his appalling behaviour (although his abrupt departure from the network was still richly rewarded by the Murdoch family). John Lithgow bravely takes on this most unsympathetic of roles where padding and prosthetics make him fit this vile individual.
But this is – as it should be – a work with stand-out performances for women; no less than three of them. Nicole Kidman and Charlize Theron play the real-life victims Gretchen Carlson and Megyn Kelly respectively, both high-profile anchors on the network, while Margot Robbie portrays fictional character Kayla Pospisil who represents a composite of some of the many other women who were abused. Theron – who was also executive producer – is especially impressive, looking and sounding so different from her natural persona and so like Kelly herself.
The film has a flashy, jerky style with a succession of names, dates and voiceovers coming at the viewer, so it is no surprise to note that the writer is Jay Roach who successfully used a similar approach with the complex work “The Big Short”. This adds to the inevitable fact that this is uncomfortable viewing – as, given the subject, it should be – and, since I share a first name with Ailes and this name is repeated constantly, I found it particularly unsettling. But it should be seen and it should be discussed.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
How has democracy fared in the last 30 years? Some rough times, but some causes for hope.
January 18th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
If you have a bit of time for a read this weekend, this article from the “Journal of Democracy” is well worth your attention.
The piece concludes:
“It would be wrong to end this overview on a purely pessimistic note. Over the past century, democracy has gone through many ups and downs. The current crisis is not nearly as severe as the one that struck in the 1930s, when fascism took hold in the heart of Europe. And that crisis arguably was rivaled by the loss of confidence in democracy that beset the West during the manifold troubles of the 1970s. The spark that animated the transitions of 1989–91 is still alive in many parts of the world. In just the past few years, Ukraine, Algeria, Sudan, Nicaragua, Armenia, and Hong Kong have all seen the emergence of mass protests against authoritarian government, even if these did not always lead to successful democratic transitions. The Czech Republic, Georgia, Romania, Slovakia, and even Russia have seen popular pushback against corruption and oligarchic control of the democratic process.
Brexit has fractured the British political system in a way that guarantees no other EU country will soon follow the British path. It is not clear that British voters themselves, if they had a chance to redo their decision, would now make the same choice that they did back in June 2016. While Donald Trump has challenged many of America’s check-and-balance institutions, they have largely held; the most important check, an electoral one, may be forthcoming in 2020. Over the long run, demographics do not seem to favor populism; young people continue to move out of rural areas and into big cities.
In order to get to the long run, however, we must first survive the short run. Today, there are two opposite trends in the world: The first is social fragmentation and its concomitant, the decline of the authority of mediating institutions, primarily in established democracies. The second is the rise of new centralized hierarchies in authoritarian states. Surviving the present means rebuilding the legitimate authority of the institutions of liberal democracy, while resisting those powers that aspire to make nondemocratic institutions central.”
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Birthday greetings to Michelle (and Catrin) – and a review of “Becoming”
January 17th, 2020 by Roger Darlington
Today is the birthday of former American First Lady Michelle Obama (as well as my granddaughter no 1 Catrin) and this is as good an excuse as any to reprint my review of her bestselling biography “Becoming” and to recommend it to you (if you haven’t already read it).
“Becoming” by Michelle Obama
Barack and Michelle Obama occupied the White House for the eight yeara 2009-2017. He has already written a memoir – but only of the first three decades of his life – in the form of the 1995 work “Dreams From My Father” but he has yet to write about his time as President. She has now written a memoir of the first five or so decades of her life which includes, but does not major on, her time as First Lady. When “Becoming” was published in mid November 2018, it sold more copies than any other book published in the United States in 2018, breaking the record in just 15 days. It has since achieved outstanding sales all around the world and become a genuine literary phenomenon.
It is very well-written, having been researched and structured by a team of excellent writers led by journalist Sara Corbett. Above, though, it tells a remarkable story in a revealing and insightful manner, making this a joy to read.
A working class black woman raised on the South Side of Chicago improbably manages to become a graduate of both Princeton University and Harvard Law School before starting her career as an attorney and then taking on a series of roles with a strong social justice agenda. And she meets and marries the man who will just as improbably become the first black President of the United States. By the time she leaves the White House, she has raised two wonderful daughters, supported her husband with utter professionalism, created a White House vegetable garden, launched four major initiatives supporting childen and veterans – and meanwhile “we’d managed two terms in office without a major scandal”.
How was this possible?
It started with her own talent and determination. She studied and worked incredibly hard and describes herself as “a control freak” and “a box checker – marching to the resolute beat of effort/result” before she fell in love with Barack, an event which she calls “my swerve”. It was buttressed by wonderfully supportive parents and then great friends and mentors. She records how in turn she has always tried to encourage others – especially girls and women of colour – to aim high. And it was enabled by the transformative power of education at both her schools and colleges. But she has always suffered from an kind of imposter syndrome, never quite believing that she was good enough. Her life has not been trouble-free and she candidly refers to smoking pot, having a miscarriage, and needing IVF as well as fighting with and yelling at Barack and she and her husband using counselling to work through a rough patch in their marriage.
This memoir is very much about how Michelle Obama became the immensely impressive woman that she is and not so much about her famous husband. Barack does not appear in the text until a quarter of the way through the book; only three-quarters in do we reach her time in the White House; and the second presidential term is covered in merely a couple of dozen pages. While Barack Obama may be the consummate politician, Michelle Obama makes it very clear in this memoir that, at every stage of her husband’s political career, she was reluctant for him to enter the election. The price was so high – for her own aspirations as a talented professional woman and for their daughters who would see so much less of their father and, once he was President, have to live their lives in a kind of security bubble.
Yet, in the end, she always backed his decision to run and gave him her total support. For herself, she makes it clear that “I’ve never been a fan of politics” and that at times she found it “demoralizing, infuriating, sometimes crushing” and she is adamant that “I have no intention of running for office, ever”.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)