What is at stake in the US mid-term elections?
October 19th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
This week, I attended the first of two sessions at London’s City Literary Institute to discuss the United States mid-term elections. This session looked at what is at stake and considered what might happen. The session after the elections will examine the results and debate the implications for the presidential election in 2020.
The elections are on Tuesday 6 November 2018, although in some states voting – by post and even in person – has already started.
The lecturer was Mark Malcolmson who is in fact the principal of the college. He is an expert on US politics, having lived in the country for many years, and an excellent prosenter.
He gave us the basic statistics of what is up for election:
- All 435 seats in the House of Representatives
- Around one-third, actually 35, seats in the Senate
- 36 state governors and three US territory governors
- 6,066 state legislative races in 46 states
He explained that there is something called “the mid-term penalty”. This is the almost invariable pattern that the party holding the presidency does badly in the mid-terms, so this will act against the Republicans this time. Another factor is that turn-out is always much lower in the mid-term elections than in Congressional elections when the presidency is up for election too.
Besides these two general factors, this year we have two extraordinary considerations. The first is the massive aversion to Donald Trump as president, especially among women. The second is the huge controversy over the recent confirmation of Brett Kavanaugh to the Supreme Court.
On the one hand, Democrats (and independents) are fired up and there is talk of “a wave election” with the Dems doing really well. On the other hand, Trump remains very popular with his base and many Republicans feel angry at how Kavanaugh was treated.
The consensus on the course was that the Democrats are very likely to take the House of Representatives (they need to take 23 seats which should be achievable). But the Dems will probably not take the Senate (they would need to win two seats and hold all their current ones).
A Democratic majority in the House would enable the Dems to block legislation from Trump or Republicans, although Trump has achieved very little (except tax cuts) even with a Republican majority. Also the House under the Dems could initiate investigations on issues like Russia, keeping these subjects in the headlines and exposing new facts as we approach the next presidential election.
If you would like to know more about the American political system, you can read my guide here.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)
Do you know who was the founding first president of the new state of Czechoslovakia 100 years ago?
October 18th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
It was Tomáš Garrigue Masaryk – or TGM as he was often known – and this week I attended a talk given by his great granddaughter Charlotta Kotik. The event was organised by the British Czech and Slovak Association and the venue was the Slovak Embassy in London.
Masaryk was already 68 when he became President in 1918 and he won a succession of new terms before age and ill-health forced him to abdicate in 1935 at the venerable age of 85 (he died two years later).
His great granddaughter is an art historian in the United States, but told of her childhood in Communist Czechoslovakia where, as a member of the Masaryk family, she was denied access to university and employment.
Some years ago, I read a very interesting biography of Tomáš Masaryk and his son Jan and you can read my review of that book here.
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Is there any good news in the world? Maybe in Ethiopia …
October 17th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
All that most people in the world know about the African state of Ethoipia is that it had a famine in 1984. But profound political changes are currently taking place in the country. As the “Guardian” newspaper reports today:
“Ethiopia’s prime minister has appointed women to half the posts in his cabinet and created a new ministry of peace in a sweeping reshuffle that will reinforce the momentum of his radical reform programme in the vast, strategically significant African country.
Abiy Ahmed has turned the region’s politics on its head with a string of reforms since being appointed in April, earning comparisons to Nelson Mandela, Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama and Mikhail Gorbachev.
On Tuesday, he named the former construction minister, Aisha Mohammed, as defence minister – the first woman to hold that position in the country – and announced the creation of a new peace ministry led by Muferiat Kamil, former parliament speaker.
Kamil’s office will oversee the intelligence and security agencies, a move that reinforces the downgrading of the traditionally powerful security establishment in the authoritarian state.”
You can read a little more on this story here.
I visited Ethiopia in 2015 and you can read the account of my trip here.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Ever heard of “up-lit”? Sounds like a good idea to me.
October 14th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
So many fiction books and television series seem to be about crime and violence. Although I’m current reading the thriller “Prague Fatale” by Philip Kerr and recently watched the hit BBC series “Bodyguard”, I’m not generally attracted to such dark material.
Apparently, I’m not the only one which explains the growth in popularity of so-called “up-lit” or uplifting literature. A classic example of this is the best-selling novel “Eleanor Oliphant Is Completely Fine” by Gail Honeyman which I’ve reviewed here.
This week at the Frankfurt Book Fair, there was excitement about another example of “up-lit”: “The Love Story of Missy Carmichael” by Beth Morrey. You can read about this here.
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A review of the new version of “A Star Is Born”
October 12th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
It seems that each generation is destined to have its own version of this classic and painful cinematic tale of one star on the decline as another rises. In the original 1937 version, the actors were Frederic March and Janet Gaynor; then, in the 1954 remake, we had James Mason and Judy Garland; and, in the 1976 version (the only other one that I’ve seen), it was Kris Kristofferson and Barbra Streisand.
In many ways, this fourth outing is Bradley Cooper’s movie: as well as filling one of the leading roles (famous country rocker Jackson Maine) with an especially gravelly voice, this is his assured directorial debut plus he co-wrote and co-produced as well as contributing musical material. And his singing is surprisingly powerful and persuasive.
But, of course, it is equally Lady Gaga’s success: as well as taking the other leading role (undiscovered singer Ally) in her first big-screen starring performance, she contributed many of the songs. We always knew that she was a sensational singer, but she is a revelation as an actress who, for most of the film, has none of the elaborate make-up and outlandish costumes with which we associate her public persona.
This is very much a film about the music with a good number of songs performed in full (and recorded live) and it is very much a movie to be seen in a cinema because the sound is fabulous and the electric concert scenes massively enhanced by a large screen. Some of the final sequences are hard to watch as Jack’s addiction to alcohol and drugs takes its inevitable toll, but this magnificent work manages to end on an uplifting note. A sure-fired Acadamy Award winner.
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A review of the new film “The Wife”
October 10th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
This is a quality film with outstanding acting but it won’t appeal to all because it is a character-driven, dialogue-rich work with no action sequences or special effects.
Indeed it could have been a play. In fact, it is adapted by Jane Anderson from the 2003 novel by Meg Wolitzer and, together with the eponymous role being take by an actress, some will therefore regard it as a woman’s film but men should certainly view it as well.
Set in 1992 (so shots of Concorde), the story is set around the award of the Nobel Prize for Literature to American novelist Jonathan Castleman who is accompanied to the ceremony in Stockholm by his ever-supportive wife Joan.
Jonathan Pryce and Glenn Close – two actors now in their 70s – give superb perfomances as the long-married couple, but it is Close – a six times Academy Award nominee – who provides a career-best showing. She expresses so many emotions so vividly just with a silent look.
There are flash-backs to the 1950s and 1960s when the couple are played by Harry Lloyd and Close’s real-life daughter Annie Starke.
Other important roles are the couple’s son (Max Irons) and a would-be biographer (Christian Slater) in a fine cast pulled together with style by Swedish director Bj0rn Runge making his English-language feature debut. The slow reveal leads to explosive revelations and serious consequences.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
Word of the day: myrmidon
October 9th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
It means “a person who executes without question or scruple a master’s commands”.
The word comes from classical mythology as the Myrmidons were one of the warlike people of ancient Thessaly who accompanied Achilles to the Trojan War.
I came across the word while reading “Prague Fatale” by Philip Kerr which is set in Nazi-occupied wartime Czechoslovakia.
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What is the religious composition of the US Supreme Court?
October 8th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
For weeks now, the world has watched while the United States Senate has held confirmation hearings for President Trump’s nomination to the Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh. Sadly that nomination has now been confirmed and the court has a clear conservative majority that will impact its decisions for decade and guarantee Trump a long legacy.
Meanwhile a fascinating feature of the US Supreme Court is its religious composition. Five of the justices (including Kavanaugh) are Roman Catholic and three are Jewish. Neil Gorsuch was raised Roman Catholic but now attends an Episcopal Church.
You can learn more about the Supreme Court in my guide to the American political system here.
Posted in American current affairs | Comments (0)
A review of the new super-hero movie “Venom”
October 7th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
This movie is far from being the best in the Marvel Cinematic Universe but it is not as bad as many critics have suggested. What makes it a little different is that, in other super-hero films, the same character so often has two persona (think Clark Kent and Superman or Tony Stark and Iron Man)), but this time we have an anti-hero with two characters in the same person as one-time investigative reporter Eddie Brock (Tom Hardy) is possessed by a ‘symbiote” from outer space providing some comedic character clashes.
Sadly the work takes too long to get going and the female characters are poorly rendered (with a terrible under-utilisation of the talented Michelle Williams as the love interest). At least, the evil genius – Riz Ahmed as Dr Carlton Drake – is quite effective and Venom himself – looking like a cousin of “Alien” – is suitably fierce-looking, but the “symbiote” itself looks like a cross between an oil slick and a kitchen mess.
However well or otherwise the film performs at the box office, we know that we’ve not seen the last of Venom because a clip early in credits introduces us to a forthcomong opponent played by Woody Harrelson. Oddly, at the very end of the interminable credits, there is a long clip from an altogeher different film – an animated version of a Spiderman – that is part of Sony’s bit of the MCU.
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Could one woman still block Trump’s nomination to the Supreme Court?
October 5th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
“In the end, whether or not the supreme court nominee Brett Kavanaugh is confirmed could come down to the vote of one senator: Susan Collins, a moderate Republican from Maine.
Historically, she is popular with women. She attracts voters who are registered Democrats. She opposed Trump’s candidacy for president, saying that he could make the world “more dangerous”.
And she has vowed not to support a supreme court nominee who demonstrates hostility to Roe v Wade, the landmark 1973 decision that legalized abortion in the United States.
But on Kavanaugh, she has remained mostly silent and her intentions are still a mystery.”
More on this story here.
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