Post-May, where now for Britain and Brexit?

May 26th, 2019 by Roger Darlington

“The next five months look set to be the most torrid, yet pivotal, period in our history since the second world war. And as the Tory party engulfs itself in a self-indulgent leadership beauty parade, all remaining hope lies with Labour. Only Corbyn can conceivably deliver us from this unholy and destructive mess. But it’s far from clear yet whether he will choose to step up to do so.”

The conclusion of a thoughtful editorial in today’s “Observer” newspaper.

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A review of the newly re-released 1964 film “Dr. Strangelove” (1964)

May 24th, 2019 by Roger Darlington

“Dr. Strangelove or: How I Learned To Stop Worrying And Love The Bomb” – to use its full title – was directed. co-produced and co-written by Stanely Kubrick with the other writing credits going to the author of the book on which it was based (“Red Alert” by Peter George) and noted satirist Terry Southern.

Coming so soon after the Cuban missile crisis of 1962, this black and white film was a brave piece of dark comedy that was commercially very successful in spite of military and right-wing critics. It is quite a wordy work but there are some wonderful lines including the injunction: “Gentlemen, you can’t fight here. This is the war Room”.“

It posits a scenario in which all-out nuclear war is unleashed by some crazy individuals, sophisticated technology, and unfortunate occurrences. Following the success of “Lolita” in which Peter Sellers’ character assumes several identities, Colombia Pictures agreed to finance “Dr. Strangelove on the condition that this formula was repeated, so here the brilliant Sellers plays the British RAF Group Captain Lionel Mandrake, the bland American President Merkin Muffley, and the mad German scientist Dr. Strangelove.

Other stand-out performances come from ex-communist Sterling Hayden as General Jack Ripper, George C. Scott as General ‘Buck’ Turgidson, and Slim Pickens as bomber pilot Major ‘King’ Kong, each of whom wishes to eliminate the Soviets.

Another strength of the movie is the set of the War Room, a huge artifice designed by Ken Adam, fresh from his work of “Dr, No”.

An inevitable weakness of the film is representations of the B-52 bomber since the U.S. military was clearly not going to provide the sort of access and cooperation that it did for the 1955 work “Strategic Air Command”, so Kubrick was reduced to very obvious use of models although the cockpit scenes and crew procedures look and sound very convincing.

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And now there are 24 seeking to be the Democratic candidate in 2020

May 23rd, 2019 by Roger Darlington

I’ve already blogged four times on the ever-growing field of those who wish to be elected as the Democratic candidate in the United States presidential election of 2020.

The latest – and tallest – to declare is New York mayor Bill de Blasio. This brings the current field to an incredible 24.

Of course, we have not had any hustings yet, let alone actual primaries or caucuses, so it very early days. But “Rolling Stone” magazine has helpfully ranked the 24 in the order the publications thinks the candidates currently stand in terms of popularity with Democrat supporters.

Joe Biden – with lots of support from older Democrats – is clearly in the lead with Bernie Sanders – who has lots of backing from young voters – in second position. Then come two female candidates: Elizabeth Warren and Kamala Harris.

You’ll find the full ranking here.

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Do you understand the D’Hondt method being used in today’s UK elections to the European Parliament?

May 23rd, 2019 by Roger Darlington

Elections start today for the European Parliament which represents the 28 Member States of the European Union. Following the Brexit referendum , the plan was that the UK would be out of the EU by now and therefore would play no part in the election – but we are still a member and so we still have to participate in the election.

The UK and The Netherlands vote today Thursday 23 May; Ireland will vote on Friday 24 May; and Malta on Saturday 25 May. Voting in the remaining Member States takes place on Sunday 26 May. Votes will be counted and results announced on Sunday and Monday.

UK voters will choose 73 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs) in 12 multi-member regional constituencies. Each region has a different number of MEPs based on its population. The largest allocation is 10 seats in the South East Region and the smallest is three seats in the North East Region.

In each region except Northern Ireland, seats are allocated to parties in accordance with the number of votes won by each party using a system known as the D’Hondt method.

The D’Hondt method is a highest averages method for allocating seats and is therefore a type of party-list proportional representation. The method is named after the Belgian mathematician Victor D’Hondt, who described it in 1878 for proportional allocation of parliamentary seats to parties.

How does it work? There is a worked example here.

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Word day: folderol

May 22nd, 2019 by Roger Darlington

I had never heard this word until I saw it used in the House of Commons today by Conservative Member of Parliament Jacob Rees-Mogg.

It means “nonsensical fuss” and was used in the context of the current state of the Brexit fiasco.

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Why are political opinion polls getting it wrong more often? (1)

May 22nd, 2019 by Roger Darlington

It is my contention that, across the democratic world, opinion pollsters are finding it harder to forecast accurately how political parties will do in elections and, on occasions, are getting the overall result wrong. Opinion polling is a complex matter and different companies use different methodologies, but all pollsters have the same problems of reaching the right people to construct a representative sample and of tracking short-term changes in voting intention.

The most dramatic recent case of poor polling in Britain was the General Election of May 2015 when the polls had Labour and Conservative neck-and-neck but in fact the Conservatives did significantly better than Labour. I have blogged about why the polls got it wrong on that occasion.

Essentially the problem was that some voters are easier to contact than others. Polling is becoming more difficult because fewer homes have a landline, many people do not like to answer unsolicited calls, not everyone is on the Net, volunteers for online polling are somewhat self-selecting, older people are less likely to be contacted by pollsters but more likely to vote, and those who are busy with work are less likely to be available but often more conservative.

The most recent international example of the pollsters getting it wrong was in last week’s General Election in Australia. All the polls forecast a Labour victory but the Liberal-National coalition was returned to power. What went wrong in the polling process? It is too soon to be sure but one pollster has already offered some reflections.

I was struck particularly the observation: “the polls were actually an accurate reflection of where the public was at the start of the week, and there was a move to the government in the final days of the campaign … We always knew there was a large cohort of voters with extremely light engagement.”

I think that what we are seeing is more voter fluidity. Class used to be the major determinant of voting behaviour and class does not change quickly, but class seems no longer to be the dominant factor that it was. Voters seem to be more willing to change support from election to election and even, in the course of the campaign, from week to week and day to day.

In a way, this is healthy for a democracy. It means that voters are thinking about their choices and willing to be influenced by the campaigns of the parties. But it can mean that voters are less engaged with politics and likely to be influenced by ephemeral factors.

What do you think?

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The spellbinding voice and tragic life of the Queen of Soul Aretha Franklin

May 21st, 2019 by Roger Darlington

“Amazing Grace” is a newly-released documentary that few will see on the big screen but I was fortunate enough to catch at the cinema at the weekend.

“Amazing Grace” was the title of the best-selling album of the Queen of Soul Aretha Franklin. It was recorded over two nights in January 1972 at the New Temple Missionary Baptist Church in Watts, Los Angeles and it was shot as a documentary by a crew led by Sydney Pollack.

In fact, owing to technical and legal problems, it has taken almost half a century and the mortgaging of his own home for music industry executive Alan Elliott to bring it to a cinematic release. There is no narration, no interviews, no artifice (except some brief split screens), grainy 16 mm film, just Franklin’s spellbinding voice as she belts out a succession classic gospel songs.

Aretha Franklin – who died only last summer – had a tragic life, some of which is revealed in this short biography.

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The growing success of the “John Wick” film franchise

May 19th, 2019 by Roger Darlington

First, there was “John Wick” [my review here]; this was followed by “John Wick: Chapter 2” [my review here]; and, now newly-released we have “John Wick: Chapter 3 – Parabellum”.

The word ‘parabellum’ is Latin for ‘prepare for war’ and also a calibre of bullet so, even if you haven’t seen the previous two films in the franchise, as long as you understand the title of this movie, you’ll know what to expect. In fact, John Wick has now become a well-known action hero and the franchise has built up a growing following so viewers know exactly what to expect and they will not be disappointed.

Like any successful entry in a popular franchise, you have all the elements of the original movie – most notably scene after scene of wonderfully staged and choreographed slaughter of anyone seeking to block or take out the eponymous and mythic hitman – with the return of some familiar characters, some new characters, a new location, a developing plot, and many more bodies.

The story picks up just 45 minutes after the conclusion of the previous chapter and the pace is unrelenting. Mostly we’re still in New York but there is a foray to Casablanca. New characters include The Adjudicator from The High Table who serves up punishment on anyone who helps Wick (non-binary actor Asia Kate Dillon), a one-time colleague of Wick and accomplished assassin Sofia (an excellent Halle Berry), and an ultra-destructive team led by Zero (martial artist Mark Dacascos) whose two side-kicks are played by real-life champion kickboxers who starred in “The Raid” movies.

There is nothing subtle about a John Wick movie. It is always utterly over-the-top and at times knowingly comical but, for mindless entertainment of a certain sort, this is a franchise on a roll that deservedly will be around for a while longer. And, why not? We all need a bit of escapism sometimes. Oh, for the record, one estimate of this film’s body count is a record 167.

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Where now for South Africa?

May 18th, 2019 by Roger Darlington

South Africa has just had its sixth democratic general election and once more the African National Congress (ANC) won – but with a reduced share of the vote and a lower number of seats in the National Assembly.

Cyril Ramaphosa became president a year ago and faces formidable problems in reforming the ANC and reviving the country’s economy.

South Africa’s economy grew just 0.8% in 2018 and official unemployment hovers around 27% – and is over 50% among young people. Many voters were angry at failing services, high crime levels and a failure to act against corrupt officials.

You can read my updated guide to the South African political system here.

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