The United States presidential election is just three weeks away and we are about to have the second of the three debates between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. So, below all the media froth, how is the election going?
Real Clear Politics is an independent and informed web site which tracks American politics in forensic detail. Their average of all the polls currently puts Obama and Romney as effectively tied at 47.4% and 47.3% respectively. But it’s not the overall vote that will determine the outcome; it’s the result in the Electoral College.
According to the latest assessment by Real Clear Politics, Obama is pretty sure of 201 Electoral College votes, while Romney is fairly certain of only 191 votes, with the rest still to play for. That’s a significantly worse position for Obama than a week ago. If we look at the best guess of Real Clear Politics on how the uncertain states will break, their estimate is that Obama will win 294 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 244. That’s a slight worsening of Obama’s position compared to a week ago, but would still be a clear win for Obama.
So I’m still hopeful – but anxious.