The American presidential election (39)
An American contact has drawn my attention this article which was recently in the “Washington Post” and elsewhere.
The piece makes comparisons between the presidential candidacy of Jimmy Carter in 1976 and that of Barack Obama in 2008. It makes the point that both were complete outsiders when they started their presidential bids and wonders whether Obama – if he wins the Democratic candidacy and then the presidency – will suffer the same fate as Carter in the White House who had to battle against the party establishment with very little support in the Congress.
The parallels are interesting, but I believe that an Obama presidency – if the right aides were appointed in the West Wing – would fare much better with Congress, partly because Obama has at least been a one-term senator (whereas Carter had no Washington experience) and partly because Obama has some heavyweight support on The Hill (not least the Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi).
However, my contact makes another comparison – that between the economic situations in 1977 and 2009 – and points out: “I began to imagine a parallel between the present time and that of the 1973 OPEC oil embargo. That event was the prelude to a severe recession, followed by double-digit inflation. It seemed that Obama might have misfortunes similar to those of President Carter, who presided over a worsening economic situation, caused by the financial decisions of his predecessors, Johnson and Nixon, and without much support from the Congressional representatives of his own party.”
Whoever wins the presidency is going to face a really tough economic situation.