The American presidential election (25)
I haven’t blogged much recently about the US primaries because there haven’t been any actual polls. The final ten primaries are as follows:
22 April: Pennsylvania primary, 158 pledged delegates
3 May: Guam caucus, 4 delegates
6 May: Indiana primary, 72 delegates; North Carolina primary, 115 delegates
13 May: West Virginia primary, 28 delegates
20 May: Kentucky primary, 51 delegates; Oregon primary, 52 delegates
1 June: Puerto Rico primary, 55 delegates
3 June: Montana primary, 16 delegates; South Dakota primary, 15 delegates
Now Hillary Clinton is still saying that she will take the Democratic contest all the way to the party convention in Denver at the end of August. However, the party’s leaders are insisting that, once the final primaries have been held, they want the super delegates to decide their votes and settle the election by early June.
But there is a third scenario. If Obama does really well in the Pennsylvania primary on 22 April, the pressure on Clinton to withdraw will intensify to a new pitch and she could withdraw (tearfully) by the end of the month. This is the scenario that I want to see – and it could happen.