How worried should we be about Iran?
Worried? Certainly. Very worried? Probably. Talking of a military attack by israel or the United States as soon as September or October? Hopefully, not.
In an article in today’s “Guardian” newspaper, Ian Black explains why it suits everyone to exaggerate Iran’s power. The article concludes with a quote from Emile Hokayem of the Institute of Strategic Studiesd who states:
“The fundamental problem is that Iran’s friends and enemies both overestimate its power and influence. The west believes its own perceptions. Israel’s officially endorsed existential concern about Iran makes Israelis feel more vulnerable and more nervous … than warranted, which is massively counterproductive. In Washington, the hawks exaggerate to create a sense of urgency. The Gulf states hype things, too. But if you look at the substance, Iran doesn’t come across as a particularly powerful country. It’s trying to find its place in the international system and it’s failing. We need to rightsize the Iranian challenge.”
As long ago as February 2007 (that is, five years ago), I did a blog posting about the serious public discussion then taking place about Israel’s expected attack on Iran because it was believed that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb.
In August 2009, I did a blog posting entitled “Should we live with a nuclear Iran?” This may be a question that we have to revisit.
Two years ago, I made a visit to Iran – my account here – and saw at first hand how many Iranians hate the current regime. I fear that a military attack, based on challengeable assumptions about both Iran’s intentions and capabilities in the nuclear field, would inflame the whole Middle East, threatening the prospects for more liberal movements in Iran and elsewhere. If I am right, an attack would not make Israel saver overall and would set back democratic trends in the whole Middle East as well as massively inflaming relations with Russia and China.