Will Obama win a second term?
I certainly hope so, but it’s far from a foregone conclusion. I was speaking earlier this week to a British guy who now lives in the USA and always votes Democrat and he was explaining to me how seriously Obama has disappointed his electoral base. The critical issue, of course, is the economy and the latest news on jobs was modestly encouraging – but it’s going to be a tough fight.
In a recent article on the forthcoming battle, the “New York Times” commented:
“Obama has gone from a modest favorite to win re-election to, probably, a slight underdog. Let’s not oversell this. A couple of months of solid jobs reports, or the selection of a poor Republican opponent, would suffice to make him the favorite again.
Nevertheless, this is an unusual circumstance. Roosevelt, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton and both Bushes all looked like the favorite to win a year in advance of their re-election battles, either having strong approval ratings or good-enough ones accompanied by robust economic numbers.
When we look at the last eight elected presidents, only Carter faced a situation worse than Obama’s: approval ratings in the low 30s rather than low 40s, the likelihood rather than the mere possibility of a recession, a primary challenge rather than a clear path to renomination and a crisis in Iran rather than a string of foreign-policy victories.”