Who will be China’s Gorbachev?
On my return from my first visit to China seven years ago, I concluded my web site account as follows:
“The 19th century was essentially the century of Britain; the 20th century was unquestionably the century of the United States; the 21st century might become the century of China. It depends on many factors.
It depends on the quality of the political leadership and, in the short term, Jiang Zemin is due to be succeeded by the younger Hu Jintao. It depends on the extent to which the economic changes are followed by political changes, including the development of a civil society with a free media, pressure groups, independent trade unions, and ultimately political parties.
It depends on how capably and rapidly the economy moves from the bricks and mortar of the industrial society to the clicks and bricks of the information society. It depends on how China uses its growing industrial and military strength at home, specifically in relation to Tibet and Taiwan, and in the global marketplace.”
This week, the 17the Congress of the Chinese Communist Party is being held in Beijing and one of the decisions it will debate is who should succeed Hu Jintao in 2012. In this perceptive article, Will Hutton speculates as to whether China’s next president will be a Gorbachev figure inspiring genuine political reforms and, if, so, whether that figure will be one the two ‘Lis’ (there are around 230 million in China): Li Keqiang and Li Yuanchao.
October 22nd, 2007 at 6:41 am
Dear Editor,
A senior Chinese Communist Party official named Li Keqiang, who is on
close terms to Hu Jintao, has been elevated to the ruling Politburo
Standing Committee along with three other men.
For years, many people in the West, and inside China as well, have
been trying to find a “Chinese Gorbachev”, who like Mikhail Gorbachev
in the former USSR, will liberate China from the firm hands of
communism and open the country up the freedom and democracy.
It may very well be that Li Keqiang will be the main man to watch, and
while he will not become president of China for a long time to come,
if ever, but perhaps in 10 to 15 years, Li is probably the best
candidate for a Chinese Gorbachev. He is in his early fifties, he is
very aware of what his future role might be, and he could be the one
to liberate the Chinese from the iron grip of the Communist Party.
China has two ways to become a free, democratic country. One way is
for the people to make a revolution, but is not likely to happen under
the current regime. The other way is for a man or woman to arise
within the country who, like Gorbachev in the former Soviet Union,
could change the country by the force of his own personality and
vision. I think Li Keqiang is the man. Watch him closely.
Dan Bloom
Chiayi City
Taiwan