Where the Trump presidency came from and where it might go to
This week, Mark Malcolmson, the Director of the City Literary Institute in London gave one of his popular online lectures on the current political scene in the United States. Here are some take-away points with a bit of extra information from me.
- Donald Trump is both the 45th and the 47th president. The only previous time in history when one man – there’s never been a female president – had two non-consecutive terms of office was Grover Cleveland who was president in 1885-1889 and 1893-1897.
- Trump won both the Electoral College vote and the popular vote, but he still failed to win a plurality – that is, over 50% – of the votes cast. Then, of course, 36% of the electorate did not vote. So Trump’s mandate is not that total.
- Trump improved his share of the vote, compared to 2020, in every state and in almost every demographic (there was a particular increase among Latino voters).
- Money did not play a decisive role in the result. Overall expenditure on this round of elections fell, mainly because Republicans spent less than Democrats on the presidential election.
- Incumbency was a major factor. In almost every democratic country where there was a national election in 2024, the party in power lost votes and often lost power. Everywhere voters are punishing the incumbent – whether in the US or the UK.
- Biden achieved an incredible amount domestically, especially in terms of economic recovery and infrastructure investment. But he should never have run for a second term and, having finally decided not to do so, he left it too late for Kamala Harris who did exceptionally well in all the circumstances.
- Already Trump is having problems, with some of his executive orders being challenged in the courts and some of his Cabinet nominations being challenged in committees of the House of Representatives. He has promised that prices will come down: whereas the rate of inflation could fall, prices will not reduce. It could not be long before Trump breaks with Elon Musk.
- Trump’s main problem is that the Republican majority in the House of Representatives is so small and the Republican House speaker is so weak that Trump is not guaranteed a majority in the lower chamber for his legislation or expenditure.
- Looking to the near future, there are two vacant House seats so those elections might give a first indication of how the political wind is now blowing. This year – an off-year for elections – the only interesting ballots are for the governorships of New Jersey and Virginia.
- 2026 will see the mid-term elections when usually the party of the incumbent president does badly. The Republicans will hold the Senate, but they could well lose the House which would stimy Trump’s last two years in the White House.
- Meanwhile the composition of the Supreme Court will remain Trump’s most long-lasting legacy. In his first term of office, he was able to nominate three ultra-conservatives. Two current older conservatives might retire on age grounds, allowing Trump to appoint younger replacements. One liberal member might have to resign for reasons of ill-health which would enable Trump to appoint another conservative that would change the balance from 6-3 to 7-2.
- Don’t forget Kamala Harris. She is still comparatively young and popular. She is unlikely to run again for the Democratic candidacy for the presidency, but she might well run for governor of California (her strongly Democratic home state) because the current governor is term-limited. Remember where you heard it first.