What if the Labour Party wins the coming General Election with a huge majority?
Do you remember the General Election of December 2019? Do you really remember it? The Conservative Party, then led by Boris Johnson, won a landslide victory with a majority of 80 seats, a net gain of 48, on 43.6% of the popular vote, the highest percentage for any party since the General Election of 1979.
For the Labour Party, then led by Jeremy Corbyn, the result was an absolute disaster. It was the fourth consecutive general election defeat for the Labour Party. In the worst result for the party in 84 years, despite a better vote share than other losses as in 1931, 1983, 1987, and 2010, Labour only won 202 seats, which was the lowest number since 1935 and a loss of 60 compared to the previous election.
At that time, it seemed unthinkable that the Labour Party could secure a Parliamentary majority in one election cycle. There was much talk of pre- or post-election pacts with the Liberal Democrats or the Scottish National Party to obtain a. working majority for a possible Labour Government. An agreement with the Lib Dems would, it was assumed, require a commitment to a referendum on a new, proportional system of voting.
Four or so years later and few observers doubt that the Labour Party is set to win the next General Election and secure a working majority on its own. Nobody is now talking of electoral pacts and PR is barely on the agenda. The issue now is not: will Labour win? But: how big will the majority be? Almost certainly, it will be a three-figure majority. It could even be a larger majority than the 179 won by Tony Blair in 1997.
What will that mean? It would not necessarily be good for democracy. A sound democracy needs an effective Opposition. The Tories will lose many of their ‘stars’ from Parliament and could well descend into civil war.
Some in the Labour Party feel that the majority could be ‘too’ big in the sense that it will enable and, and maybe encourage, backbench Labour MPs to revolt against their own government. I doubt this – at least for some time. The Starmer machine has exercised tight control over the selection of Labour candidates and I don’t think there will be many natural rebels. Also, after 14 years in Opposition, there will be a powerful sense of loyalty and discipline in the Parliamentary Labour Party.
My concern is that a thumping majority will lead the electorate to have excessive expectations of the new Labour Government. Voters will feel that that, with such a huge majority, the Government can do anything. Voters may not fully take on board that, whatever the size of the majority, the circumstances of the British economy will be the same – that is, terrible: tight expenditure plans, crippling debt, virtually no growth, and the continued impact of Brexit. And there will still be the war in Ukraine.
Over the next few months, you can expect a lot of effort by the Labour leadership to manage expectations. But the electorate is crying out for hope. We want something better – much better.