The local elections: definitely bad news for Labour – but maybe not that bad and certainly far from unique
As a lifelong member of the Labour Party, naturally I am extremely disappointed by the results of the elections held on Thursday. But I’m not despondent.
The most dramatic result was the loss of a Parliamentary by-election in Hartlepool. This certainly underlines a loss of support in the north-east, but Hartlepool is a bit special. Three times it elected as mayor a guy who used to be the monkey mascot of the local football team; Labour would have lost the seat at the last General Election had it not been for a substantial vote for the Brexit Party; and friends who’ve been to Hartlepool (I never have) tell me that the deprivation and neglect are especially serious and long-term, so it is understandable that voters there wanted a change.
At times like this, I think it’s better to look at the bigger picture. This is the first time in a century that we’ve had a global pandemic and this threat to lives and livelihoods has presented an extraordinary challenge that has affected politics as well as everything else.
I think the pandemic explains why the incumbent government in the different UK nations – Conservatives in England, SNP in Scotland and Labour in Wales – have all done well in these elections. It is partly because the leader of these three administrations has had exceptional exposure and power; it is partly that, with a successful vaccine roll-out and the lifting of restrictions, electors are feeling well-disposed to their leaders. In a similar way, the mayors of London and Manchester – both Labour and both easily re-elected – have been seen to handle the pandemic well.
By the time of the next General Election, the pandemic should be behind us and the special factors at play in 2021 will not be there.
Having said all this, it is clear that the Labour message is unclear and that Keir Starmer has problems being accepted in some quarters. These issues need to be addressed quickly and the reshuffle of the Shadow Cabinet is a start (although the Angela Rayner situation has not been handled well). I’m not convinced that Labour’s historic position is out-of-date. After all, key features of that position have been a belief in an interventionist government and the vital role of public investment – both features being practised by the new-style Conservative administration.
I believe that there is scope and need for some big policies from Labour starting with the rebuilding and funding of the NHS and social care – as set out in the recent report of a commission of inquiry by the London School of Economics and the “Lancet” medical journal.
Taxation – the great unspoken topic of politics – has to be part of the conversation. The LSE/”Lancet” report calls for its proposals to be funded largely from increases in income tax, national insurance and VAT, which evidence suggests the public is willing to pay. And personally I think we need a carbon tax and a wealth tax in the UK plus international agreement on the taxing of the global tech giants and other multinationals.
Perhaps what the Labour Party needs more than anything is one overarching idea that can be simply summarised – something more positive, more lasting, more inclusive that “Take back control”, “Get Brexit done” and “Levelling up” which have worked so well for Boris Johnson.
I venture to suggest such a single joined up communications idea. Instead of the Great Society or the New Deal or the Big Society – each of which has been used in the past – something like the Fair Deal with every policy – environment, education, employment, housing, health, social care, transport and so – presented as a form of fairness and fair taxation presented as the cost of fair outcomes (that’s the deal). And, of course proportional representation as fair votes.
More generally, we have to appreciate that decades of globalisation and austerity have dramatically weakened social democratic parties throughout Europe.
In France, the Socialist Party stands below 10% in the polls. The Dutch Labour Party had a near-death experience at the general election of 2017. Italy’s Democrats have lost swaths of working-class support to the populist Right and were at one point eclipsed by the Five Star Movement. Germany’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) has slipped badly behind the Greens. So the British Labour Party is not alone in needing to re-invent itself.
Yet, in every crisis, there is an opportunity. Over in the United States, President Joe Biden has shown that the twin crises of the global pandemic and climate change have created an appetite among electors for real and dramatic change. If policies are seen to be relevant (jobs, jobs, jobs) and presented in a language that working people understand by a leader with whom people can relate, transformational change is possible. And it is most certainly needed.
May 10th, 2021 at 6:25 pm
Thanks for your thoughts Roger, you are the friend closest to understanding the inside workings of Labour party. There are several problems. The Corbynist ‘left’ clings to the obsolete, failed ideologies a past era. A new left needs to arise. Focus groups will likely show that some swing voters may not see themselves as ‘working class’. Others are swayed by nationalism. They believe immigration is a threat. London centricism is an issue and maybe local candidates are part of the solution. The fear is that the party will tear itself apart. Sir K looks vulnerable. Let us hope that from disaster a new winning party can be built.
May 16th, 2021 at 1:30 pm
So Roger are you of the ‘one more heave’ school of thought or do you recognise the time has come for a progressive alliance with the Lib Dems and Greens along with support for PR?
May 16th, 2021 at 1:45 pm
Richard, I would naturally prefer a majority Labour Government but I think that would be unlikely in “one more heave’.
I would support a progressive alliance and my daughter-in-law (a Labour councillor) has just become part of such an alliance with Lib Dems in Milton Keynes.
But I suspect that at Westminster Lib Dems and Greens would not have enough seats to give an alliance with Labour an overall majority. An alliance with the SNP would probably get the numbers. The price would be another independence referendum but I think that’s coming anyway.
May 16th, 2021 at 1:48 pm
Votes for left or middle parties also tend to get diluted due to the number of different parties & candidates that are standing, whereas the “right” tends to have fewer such divisions.
May 16th, 2021 at 2:01 pm
That’s true, Peter. Proportional representation would ease that problem.