How is the Brexit crisis going to work out? I venture 16 predictions (2)
A week ago, I was rash enough to make a blog posting in which I attempted to make 16 predictions of how the Brexit crisis would unfold. One week later, one of my predictions has now come true, although the sequencing of events is not happening quite as I expected.
I said that the Conservative Party would hold a vote of no confidence in Theresa May as leader of the Party but that she would win the vote. The vote took place this evening and May won by 200 to 117.
Now let’s see how many of my other 15 predictions work out. Meanwhile, as a reminder, this is what I forecast …
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- In the House of Commons “meaningful vote” on Theresa May’s Brexit deal, there is no majority for the deal.
- The Parliamentary Labour Party tables a vote of no confidence in the Government. It fails.
- The 1922 Committee tables a vote of no confidence in May as Conservative Party leader. It fails. CORRECT
- May seeks to tweak elements of the deal with the European Commission. She achieves no substantive changes.
- A group of MPs puts forward a ‘Norway plus’ deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.
- A group of MPs puts forward a ‘Canada plus’ deal. The European Commission is not interested and no real progress is made.
- The UK asks the other 27 Member States of the European Union for an extension to the Article 50 process to allow time for the holding a second referendum. A few extra months is granted.
- Parliament passes the necessary legislation for a second referendum. The only real debate is the choice to be presented on the ballot paper. The choice is Brexit on the terms negotiated by May or continued UK membership of the EU on current terms
- The Electoral Commission tightens up the rules on spending in the referendum.
- May campaigns hard for her deal. Corbyn campaigns much less hard for staying in the EU.
- The referendum campaign is a bitter and divisive one.
- Turnout is even higher than for the first referendum.
- The result of the second referendum is almost a mirror image of that of the first one: 53% to stay and 47% to leave.
- May resigns as leader of the Conservative Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.
- Labour demands of the new Prime Minister that a General Election be called. There is no election.
- Corbyn resigns as leader of the Labour Party. There is a battle for the soul of the party.
December 16th, 2018 at 8:33 pm
Roger,
Sadly, I agree with nearly all of your analysis of what is about to unfold except perhaps the resignation of Corbyn.
I don’t believe the Labour Party can be elected to government with him as leader.
As for Brexit, it will consume everything in its path in the UK, not just the Tories.
Alan
December 17th, 2018 at 2:39 pm
I think the result will be as before and the government will go ahead with a hard brexit. The EU is a failing project and will be irrelevant in 20 years time as more countries leave. Free of the EU shackles the UK will prosper although it will take a few years for this to happen.