Why did Litvinenko die?
Nowhere are different theories being discussed more than in Moscow. See here an examination of four theories in the Russian newspaper “Izvestia”.
Izvestia
December 1, 2006
LITVINENKO HAD BECOME DANGEROUS FOR BEREZOVSKY
And three other theories about the mysterious events in London
Four theories about the Litvinenko poisoning
Author: Elena Ovcharenko, Vladimir Demchenko
[Police have reconstructed Alexander Litvinenko’s movements on
November 1. He went to see Boris Berezovsky; he bought some
newspapers; he met with Andrei Lugovoi at the Millennium Hotel. He
met with Mario Scaramella at a sushi bar. Then he visited a
security firm – and that’s when he started feeling ill.]
Mario Scaramella, the Italian who met with Alexander
Litvinenko on November 1 – the day the former KGB officer was
poisoned with polonium-210 – has revealed some details about the
meeting. Scaramella’s words offer support for one of the theories
we presented earlier: that Litvinenko was involved in the black
market for nuclear materials. But police investigators aren’t
rejecting some other theories either. Today we shall attempt to
look at all of them.
Scotland Yard detectives have some new questions for Boris
Berezovsky concerning the “Alexander Litvinenko death case.” They
are interested in learning why Litvinenko visited Berezovsky’s
office on the morning of November 1 – before his meeting with
Mario Scaramella. There is every reason to believe that at the
time of that morning visit, the radioactive polonium-210 was
either in Berezovsky’s office or being carried by Litvinenko
himself.
Police have now reconstructed practically all of Litvinenko’s
movements on that day. He went to see Berezovsky; he bought some
newspapers in Piccadilly; he met with businessman Andrei Lugovoi
at the Millennium Hotel. Then he met with Scaramella at Itsu, a
Japanese restaurant. Then he visited a security firm – and that’s
when he started feeling ill.
Traces of polonium-210 have been found at all these locations
– but Berezovsky’s office was first on the list. Now the oligarch
will be questioned again, and this questioning session is unlikely
to be an easy one for him.
Scotland Yard’s professionals may soon determine exactly what
happened in the mysterious story of Litvinenko’s death. Meanwhile,
all kinds of theories are still being considered.
First theory: Litvinenko was dealing in radioactive materials
We looked at this theory in our last issue. Traces of
polonium-210 were left everywhere Litvinenko went on November 1 –
but none of the people he had contact with were poisoned. This
suggests that Litvinenko had the polonium on him. He was carrying
it around London and even showing it to some people, in an attempt
to sell it.
Some unexpected evidence in favor of this theory emerged
yesterday. Scaramella said that Litvinenko had told him, in
detail, about participating in a number of operations aimed at
selling radioactive materials abroad. This allegedly started when
he was still working for the Federal Security Service (FSB).
Why did Litvinenko reveal this to Scaramella? According to
initial reports, Scaramella brought Litvinenko some sort of
documents related to the murder of Anna Politkovskaya. However, it
subsequently turned out that there weren’t any documents – only an
e-mail in which some Chechens and Russians threatened Scaramella.
So he went to consult Litvinenko. Instead of advice, however, he
got the story of Litvinenko acting as a courier for radioactive
isotopes.
Most likely, Scaramella will gradually remember some other
details of his meeting with Litvinenko. Perhaps the threats were
linked to the black market for radioactive materials. Perhaps the
threats came from people connected with Litvinenko, and Scaramella
had some sort of contacts with potential polonium buyers, so
Litvinenko brought the polonium to the restaurant in order to show
it to Scaramella – and told the story of his glorious past as
proof.
If this is the case, Scaramella was lucky. By the time he met
with Litvinenko, radiation was leaking from the container of
polonium. This may be why Scaramella reacted as he did on learning
of Litvinenko’s death: he rushed from Italy to London, demanded
urgent medical tests on himself, and agreed to cooperate with
Scotland Yard.
It wouldn’t be surprising if Litvinenko took to dealing in
nuclear materials. As everyone knows, Berezovsky – who took
Litvinenko under his wing after the former officer fled Russia –
doesn’t like to waste his money. He provided Litvinenko with a
small home on the outskirts of London and a modest income. This
was probably payment for specific actions of some sort. But
Litvinenko was still short of money, and had to find another job
on the side. Polonium-210 is a very expensive isotope, and there’s
a lot of money to be made from it. It is sold openly in the United
States, but only to laboratories and only in small doses – tens of
thousands of times less than the amount required to poison a human
being or the amount required for use in a nuclear reaction.
We can’t rule out the possibility that Litvinenko’s
plutonium-dealing may have been carried out under Berezovsky’s
direct supervision. Suffice it to recall that Litvinenko left his
first trace of polonium in Berezovsky’s office. In that case,
Litvinenko may have been only a courier delivering some dangerous
goods. He may have gone abroad to bring back the polonium (surely
it’s no coincidence that one of the places he visited on November
1 was a security firm that provides security for trips abroad).
Second theory: building a portable nuclear bomb for Chechen
guerrillas
Eighteen months ago, Berezovsky was saying that the Chechen
guerrillas had a portable nuclear bomb. According to him, iall it
lacked was “a small component” to make it ready for use.
Allegedly, Berezovsky even reported this to FSB Director Nikolai
Patrushev at the time.
Now it may turn out that Berezovsky, who used to cooperate
with Shamil Basayev and has provided a refuge for separatist envoy
Akhmed Zakayev, wasn’t bluffing about the bomb. And the minor
detail that the terrorists needed in order to possess a functional
nuclear weapon may have been the polonium-210 that killed
Litvinenko. According to the experts we approached for comments,
this isotope can be used in a neutron detonator for a nuclear
bomb. And we can’t rule out the possibility that Litvinenko may
have been buying it, not selling it.
But there’s also another scenario. If the bomb had been
assembled in an underground laboratory somewhere in London,
Litvinenko may have been its “curator” – and he may have been
poisoned due to some sort of accident or emergency situation. If
that were the case, however, those who assembled the bomb would
have been poisoned as well, and the presence of other victims
probably couldn’t be concealed.
At any rate, if the bomb theory is correct, Litvinenko’s
death was his final service to his motherland.
Third theory: Litvinenko was planning to betray Berezovsky
Another theory is that Litvinenko was eliminated because he
posed a potential threat to his patron. Litvinenko knew about
practically all of Berezovsky’s activities over the past few
years. In recent months, he had become Berezovsky’s eyes, ears,
and hands; practically all of Berezovsky’s contacts went through
Litvinenko. He could have been an invaluable source of information
for the Prosecutor General’s Office, whihc is trying to get
Berezovsky extradited to Russia. What’s more, there was nothing to
prevent Litvinenko from returning to Russia; he wasn’t even on the
wanted list, he only had a suspended sentence. Of course,
Litvinenko had remained loyal to his boss for several years – but
times change.
It’s an open secret that Berezovsky’s situation has become
substantially more difficult in the past few months. At a Moscow
conference, European Union law enforcement agencies were working
on some new legislation in the area of extraditing criminals; a
Prosecutor General’s Office delegation headed by Deputy Prosecutor
General Alexander Zvyagintsev visited London and signed a
cooperation memorandum.
In the meantime, it was reported that Litvinenko visited
Moscow secretly and gave evidence about the Politkovskaya murder.
This allegation was reported in only one newspaper. The Prosecutor
General’s Office denied it immediately, and all observers
dismissed it as crazy.
But is that really true? Can we really rule out the
possibility that Litvinenko, sensing that his patron would soon be
extradited, may have been investigating options for his own return
to Russia? It’s unlikely that he visited Moscow, but can we rule
out the possibility that he had a meeting in London with someone
from the Prosecutor General’s Office delegation, and the newspaper
that reported this simply mixed something up? Even the hint of
such contacts taking place would have sufficed to make Berezovsky
seriously alarmed, to put it mildly. If the chief witness to all
of Berezovsky’s turbulent activities had decided to talk, it would
have meant disaster for the oligarch.
Think about where the first traces of polonium were found.
Think about the fact that Litvinenko also visited a security firm
that day. Perhaps his conversation with Berezovsky that morning
turned unpleasant. Perhaps, after that conversation, Litvinenko
feared for his life and tried to hire some bodyguards. But it was
too late.
Revenge by the special services
It is said that the special services never forgive defectors.
What if they really were ordered to “get rid of the traitor”?
Remember the special operation that eliminated Zelimkhan
Yandarbiev. He was killed, and then Moscow spent 11 months in
difficult negotiations with Qatar to ensure that the convicted
Russian citizens were returned to Russia. Moreover, it is known
that Russia went through diplomatic channels to involve the
leaders of several other countries with great influence on the
leader of Qatar. Naturally, after the Russian citizens were
arrested, there was a worldwide outcry about a “freedom-fighter”
being killed. That’s an unpleasant effect. But these
“international excesses” were justified by the key point of the
operation: Yandarbiev was still and active participant in “the
terrorist leadership of Ickeria.” As Khattab was killed and
efforts to capture Aslan Maskhadov continued, there was an
increasing likelihood of Yandarbiev eventually becoming the leader
of the Chechen separatists.
But Litvinenko was a pawn. What’s more, he was a damaged
pawn, long since taken out of play. He wasn’t really doing
anything. There was no reason for Moscow to get involved in an
international scandal for the sake of eliminating Litvinenko.
What’s more, London is also the location of Akhmed Zakayev – a far
more substantial figure than Litvinenko – and other defectors who
have done far more damage to Russia: Gordiyevsky and Rezun
(Suvorov).
But maybe the act of revenge didn’t involve any orders from
the top. It might have been organized by Litvinenko’s former
fellow officers – those he betrayed to British intelligence.
Actually, Litvinenko really did do that. It’s standard practice
among the special services to spend several months questioning any
defector in detail, obtaining the names and other details of all
his colleagues throughout his period of training and active
service. However, their names are then added to the blacklist of
people denied entry to Britain or other European states with which
the British intelligence services mainain close contact. So
there’s practically no chance that one of them could have come
from Russia to London for “personal revenge” purposes. Even if
some Russian officer with a grudge had made such an attempt, it
would surely have been detected by British counter-intelligence;
they might even have let him enter the country, but he would have
been strictly monitored, and Litvinenko would still be alive. Even
less likely is the scenario of some “acquaintance” contacting
Litvinenko and proposing to come to Britain and give him some
compromising materials.
Translated by Elena Leonova
Source: “David Johnson’s Russia List” (USA, Sunday 3 December)
December 6th, 2006 at 9:42 am
Thank you for posting this interesting article Roger. I gave up reading what the British papers said on this topic as they have been too repetitive, too trivial or too sensational!