Could Labour really win the General Election?

We started the election campaign with Theresa May being much more popular than her party and Jeremy Corbyn being much less popular than his party. As the campaign has gone on, there is no doubt that May is doing less well and Corbyn is doing rather better than expected.

Equally it is clear that the Conservative lead over Labour has narrowed significantly. But is Labour really within striking distance of becoming the largest single party in the House of Commons?

There has been real excitement in Labour quarters over the latest YouGov/Times poll that suggests that the gap between the Tories and Labour is now down to just 3%. And yet most other polls still show the Conservatives with a double-digit lead. How can this be?

As this helpful article explains, the key issue is whether younger voters will actually turn up at the polling stations and what judgement the different polling forecasters are making about young voter turnout. Alan Travis writes:

“Put simply the polls such as Survation and YouGov are doing a brilliant job in reaching more 18-to-24-year-olds than other polling companies. But in doing so they are in danger of repeating the mistake the polling companies made in the 2015 general election when they overstated the Labour vote and understated the Conservative vote.

This is because while younger voters may tell pollsters in large numbers they intend to vote Labour, they are far less likely to actually make it to the polling station. The difference is quite big. Only 44% of 18-24s in the ICM poll say they are 10/10 certain to vote next Thursday, compared with 66% of 35-64s and 80% of over-65s.

As a result of the inquiry into the 2015 UK polling debacle, companies such as ICM and Comres now weight their voting intention figures for younger and less affluent voters by their actual turnout rates at previous elections. Other companies such as Survation and YouGov are not doing this and weighting them by current turnout intentions.”

A week today, we will know the result.

 




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