How long can a Trump presidency last?
The latest allegations about connections between Russia and Trump and his associates, if substantiated, are deeply worrying and come after a whole slew of concerns about conflicts of interests, character defects, political nominations, and flip-flopping policy announcement (often simply via Twitter). It is not just those who opposed the Trump candidacy who are worried; many independent observers – including American diplomats, military and intelligence personnel, campaign and pressure groups, and much of the media – are deeply concerned and rightly so.
The American political system is famous for its sophisticated mechanism of ‘checks and balances’ but, over the coming weeks, months, and maybe years, it is likely to be tested as never before. A series of constitutional crises seems inevitable and a resignation or impeachment by President Trump would hardly be a surprise. This is a terrible situation, not just for Americans, but for the world. We are all watching with bated breath …
January 12th, 2017 at 6:42 pm
My own view is that assuming Donald Trump remains in good health – and I refer to his age, and his apparent unwillingness to make a full medical disclosure as reminders that over the next four years a health problem could occur- that there is a high chance of America either moving significantly towards becoming a despotism (as Simon Schama has warned) or the impeachment you envisage.
I am suggesting that either enough republicans become concerned enough to impeach, and that would mean a very high proportion of the majority party in the House, or they go along with him, in which case they would have to swallow such a level of bad behaviour that the freedom of the press, and associated with that the freedom of the next election would be at real risk.
If the opposition to the President find that press perceived to be unfriendly to the President runs into serious problems, and that for example the Democrats can no longer organise using emails as their emails will be hacked and selectively leaked, while the president’s organisation is not so incommoded and in the weeks coming up to the election opposition candidates find themselves subject to law suits, well publicised investigations for corruption, and well publicised investigations for tax evasion..
An example of this would be if the FBI were to announce an investigation into the content of emails on the computer of an aide to the Democratic candidate, while at the same time not mentioning MUCH more serious allegations against Mr Trump.
If that were to happen, then.. (Oh, hang on.)
January 12th, 2017 at 10:28 pm
Scary times, David.
February 2nd, 2017 at 9:28 pm
President Trump is a loose cannon, a malignant narcissist with no reliable ideology or character.
Anybody would be a safer pairs of hands. North Korea springs to mind, another leader with a God complex. Keep Mr Trump on TV not in politics