U.S. presidential election (26): what now for Bernie Sanders?
Bernie Sanders continues to do remarkably well in the race for the Democratic nomination winning more states and more delegates, but let’s look at the maths (or, as Americans call it, the math). As this article explains:
“… with its relatively small population and a Democratic party system of awarding delegates in proportion to votes received, the West Virginia win only secured Sanders 18 of the 29 so-called pledged delegates, who are bound to support him for the nomination.
Since the former secretary of state picked up the other 11 on offer in West Virginia, this net gain of seven over his opponent barely makes a dent in her national lead of 284 pledged delegates.
To make matters worse, these 11 additional pledged delegates that Clinton picked from West Virginia take her ever closer to the 2,383 total she needs to secure the nomination outright. When superdelegates are included – a category of party leaders who are not pledged to follow the result of state primary elections but largely lean toward Clinton – the party frontrunner is now just 114 short of the finishing line.”
I don’t blame Sanders for continuing all the way to the Democratic convention; after all, this is what Clinton did against Obama in 2008. And he and his supporters understandably want to influence the platform adopted by that convention.
But, in my view, supporters of Sanders who claim – based on current polls – that Sanders would do even better than Clinton against Trump in the general election are wrong.
Nobody has really gone for Sanders yet. Trump hasn’t gone for him because he wants Sanders to continue doing well to weaken Clinton and divert her resources. Clinton hasn’t gone that hard against Sanders either because she is a decent person and because she knows that eventually she needs his supporters behind her in the general election.
If it was ever Sanders against Trump – which it won’t be – Trump would throw everything at Sanders and, rightly or wrongly, there is a lot to be thrown that would really hurt him and the Democratic cause. Clinton is far from being invulnerable to attack, but it’s all be said before and she knows how to answer the charges.
Meanwhile Democrats have a brusing couple of months ahead of them until the nomination process is complete and the real battle commences.