U.S. presidential election (24): will there be a contested convention?
In Wisconsin this week, Ted Cruz soundly beat Donald Trump in the Republican race, while Bernie Sanders stormed to victory over Hillary Clinton in the Democratic contest. But, on 19 April when the New York primary is held, Trump expects to triumph and Clinton is hoping for a decisive win.
Meanwhile there is increasing speculation that Trump could arrive at the Republican convention with the most delegates but no overall majority. Much less likely, there is a scenario in which Clinton find herself lacking a convincing majority of pledged delegates. In this situation, we are in the territory of what is called a contested or brokered or deadlocked convention.
A contested convention happens when no candidate arrives with a majority of pledged delegates. On the first ballot, these pledged delegates will vote for the candidate to whom they are pledged. But, in any subsequent ballots, delegates are then free to vote for whomever they want. This could include the other candidates or even – subject to the rules of the convention – people who are not candidates. Delegates keep on voting until someone wins a majority.
The most famous deadlocked convention – it involved the Democrats – took place in 1924. It required 103 ballots to chose the Democratic candidate – who then lost to the Republican candidate in the general election.
The last deadlocked convention was experienced by the Republicans in 1976, when Gerald Ford did not have enough delegates before the convention to claim the nomination (his opponent was Ronald Reagan), but eventually won the nomination (Reagan withdrew) and went on to lose the general election.
The last time a contested convention produced a candidate who went on to win in the general election was in 1932 with Franklin Roosevelt.
For the 2016 convention, the Democrats will have a total of 4,763 delegates including super delegates and so, to win the nomination, the Democratic front runner needs a total of 2,282 delegates. For the 2016 convention, the Republicans will have a total of 2,472 delegates including unpledged delegates and so, to win the nomination, the Republican front runner will need a total of 1,237 delegates.
The Republicans will have their convention in Cleveland, Ohio from 18-21 July, while the Democrats will hold their convention in Philadelphia, Pennsylvannia from 25-28 July.