British general election (13): why has Ed Miliband ruled out a coalition or deal with the SNP?
Some of my Labour-leaning friends cannot understand why Labour Party leader Ed Miliband has been so categorical in ruling out a coalition or even a deal with the Scottish National Party. They look at the polls and see the likelihood of Labour and SNP together winning a majority of seats and think that the arithmetic of an anti-Conservative bloc is obvious. If only politics were so simple …
I can think of three reasons why Miliband has adopted his current stance in relation to working with the SNP:
1) Labour in Scotland is desperate to keep the SNP at arm’s length. If a coalition was on the cards now, Scottish voters would see even less reason to stay with Labour rather than switch to SNP since the consequences for the British Government would be the same arithmetically. Labour in Scotland wants to hold on to as many votes as possible (even if it loses most of its seats), so that hopefully Labour nationally can win not just the largest number of seats but also the largest number of votes which would give it more credibility in seeking to form a government. Also Labour in Scotland is looking a year down the line to the election to the Scottish Parliament when a different electoral system will enable it to win enough seats to be a credible opposition as long as it avoids melt-down now.
2) Potential Labour voters in England are concerned that a Labour/SNP Coalition Government would give the Scottish Nationalists a dangerous amount of political leverage. The Conservative Party posters of Alex Salmond picking the pocket of the Labour Prime Minister is a real fear. Floating voters feel that Scotland already gets a good deal economically from Westminster and that SNP in coalition would mean an even better deal. Many also fear the SNP position on Trident. And many are very worried that, giving the SNP too much leverage through a coalition or a deal, would mean another referendum on Scottish independence and the break-up of the UK.
3) Committed Labour voters in England are anxious about the diluting effect of any coalition or deal. The first coalition government since the Second World War has been an increasingly messy affair. Neither coalition partner was able to implement fully its manifesto and some treasured policies had to be abandoned. People voting Labour would like to feel that they will get what they vote for and, if they don’t, it will be because other parties voted against in open rather than one other party blocked the measure in the confines of a Whitehall meeting room.
So what will happen? Depending on the actual numbers of seats won by each party – which is still highly uncertain – the incumbent Government – with Tories alone or Tories and Lib Dems – may try to stay in power but, either because they can do the arithmetic or because they are defeated in the Commons, Miliband is then given the chance to form a government.
True to his word, it is a government which is not in coalition with the SNP and does not have a formal deal with the SNP (and probably the same applies to its position in relation to the Lib Dems). The minority Labour Government puts a Queen’s Speech to a Commons vote and defies the SNP to vote against it and bring down the Government. The SNP, with various oral reservations and qualifications, votes with Labour and then we get on to the normal business of Parliament which is considering Government Bills, most importantly the Finance Bill – except that this normal business will no longer be conducted in a normal manner.
Miliband has been careful to use the words “coalition” and “deal”; he has not ruled out some sort of arrangement with the SNP which will probably involve informal discussions on a Bill-by-Bill basis and sometimes even a clause-by-clause basis. This means that the Leader of the House and the Chief Whip will have critical roles in the new Government and Parliament. It means that there will be understandings, misunderstandings, narrow votes, and sometimes defeats – and we will just have to get used to this. Occasional Government defeats will not be the end of the world and, under the terms of the Fixed-Term Parliaments Act 2011, will not require another General Election.
It may not mean a government for five years but it could well provide for several years of a government which, with political will, could be quite reforming. Political commentators will love it because Parliament will be endlessly uncertain and exciting. Many politicians and voters will hate it. But it’s called democracy. When the electorate has spoken, we all have to listen and act accordingly.
May 3rd, 2015 at 1:38 pm
Great article Roger. Well put. Non-verbous. Energising amongst a painfully long and tortuous campaign.
P.S. I suspect and hope Scotland’s voters will come to thier senses and galvanise against the Tories as it has done in the past. There will be a lot of tactical voting here against the narrow nationalists here, of that I’m certain.
May 3rd, 2015 at 3:19 pm
Good article, Roger, though I feel you are being a tad too kind to Ed Miliband. I believe he has made a very serious error in ruling out any kind of deal with the SNP so explicitly ahead of the election – he simply shouldn’t have come out with such an unequivocal statement. He will be instantly exposed as a faithless liar as soon as he enters into any ‘arrangement’ with the SNP, which is one of several post-election possibilities – and possibly the most likely. To have been so uncompromising as to state a preference for a Tory-led government over a deal with a fellow-socialist party is ludicrous and, I fear, utterly self-defeating. As for any semantic difference between ‘deal’ and ‘arrangement’, that won’t get him off the hook.
May 3rd, 2015 at 3:44 pm
Roger, a good article, and gives me a better understanding of his rationale, but I remain angry that he’s mis-reading the voters & Labour supporters, who want very badly to see a left-leaning government in power. The SNP is hugely popular not only in Scotland but amongst people like ourselves committed to their policies on equity, social justice, immigration etc. This position sends the wrong message, and risks alienating many who would’ve tactically supported Labour in the hope that a coalition with the SNP would see a refreshing left-wing agenda from the Labour Party after many years.
May 3rd, 2015 at 7:21 pm
Roger’s explanation is, in my view, spot on and has the added merit of debunking many of the myths that have been peddled by the most partisan press coverage of a general election that I have ever seen – and I’ve seen a lot of them. However, some of the comments appear to misunderstand or misstate the policies and position of the SNP. They are not a radical, left leaning party and those of us with long memories will never forgive them for bringing down a Labour administration in 1979 resulting in Thatcher and Tory government until 1997. I fear a rerun but am more than happy to be proved wrong (on this occasion).
May 4th, 2015 at 4:01 pm
The key thing before the election is to keep candidates and party workers in Scotland still straining every gut to hold as many seate ss possible in Scotlanf. Personally I dont quite buy the clean sweep some polls are predicting the SNP are forecast as winning in some of them, the SNP candidate came 4th in 2010 and the intervening Tory and Liberal Democrat candidates are sure to lose votes given the unpopularity north of the border, and indeed further south as well. So tactical voting might leave Labour still holding 15-20 when the shouting is over.
The vital importance of piling up votes throughout the UK cannot be understated, as whoever commands the most votes and seats will be well placed to lead discussions on who forms the next government. If Labour csnnot do so on its own, still a possibility, we can do and an arrangement with Plaid Cymru, some Northern Ireland parties and yes the SNP without conceding any core values and without conceding on any major policy issues. The SNP has already ruled out a repeat independence referendum in the next Parliament; they had to as whilst they are likely to win votes and seats from Labour that would have reduced the extent. Remember that s majority in Scotland (though a minority in Glasgow) voted No.
May 4th, 2015 at 6:04 pm
Oh ye of little faith and armchair supporters!
In the key London seat of Brent Central where I am working, Labour and Dawn Butler is going to sweep away the coalition parties. It’s the same all over London where Labour stands to win 10 or more seats. Can the Midlands and the North of England be that different? Labour has easily won the ‘ground war’ which will show in the marginals. It’s even held its own in the Media war where u guys are at.
What’s left? Moany Scotland which can’t decide to leave
(like the Irish did) but now want’s to stay but on better terms than the rest of us. Good on you Miliband – no deals at the expense of the vast majority. Come back to Labour and a fair deal for all regions and nations.
In the meantime, after 20 years we have a Labour leader worth the name. Whatever happens on Thursday, he has restored hope for a real Labour country again. Take heart and leave the empty speculation to the pundits. Jim
May 5th, 2015 at 11:56 am
In the short term, I think Ed Miliband’s strengthening of the language has been driven by the effectiveness of the Tory attack lines down south.
But there’s longer-term trends at stake: doing a formal deal with the SNP
would send a strategically awful message to Scottish voters, in effect giving the SNP legitimacy as a centre-left party, when the medium-term challenge for Scottish Labour is to expose the SNP’s record in government (which has been stunningly unprogressive.)
Let’s remember that the real SNP objective is to deliver another Tory government, for brazenly nationalist ends. But so long as Labour dodges the questions on legitimacy that would arise if they aren’t the largest party, then Lab can call the bluff of the SNP every time the division bell rings.
The ‘yes’ vote reflects disenfranchisement with all the Westminster politicians, but also the SNP’s triumph in suggesting that Tories and Labour coming together under the ‘Better Together’ umbrella meant they were really all the same.
Red Tories, blue Tories: it may be stunningly inaccurate, but it’s the message on Scottish doorsteps (or rather, 45 per cent of them.)
However, if the SNP really want to exert influence, they have to vote the Labour budget down. Which means voting with the Tories.
Likewise with a confidence motion, which because of the Fixed Term Parliament Act would need two thirds of votes of votes to trigger an election. In other words, the SNP could only bring Labour down if the Tories decided to vote that way as well (and which they’d only do if they thought they’d win.)
The Nats should beware a phyrric victory. If Lab holds its nerve, the Nats could end up surprisingly impotent and/or making some big strategic errors. Try spinning voting with the Tories in those circumstances!
But will Labour hold its nerve… Well let’s hope for the sake of the Union that we get the chance to find out.