British general election (6): the key could be Scotland

“The evidence suggests that no single party will win an outright majority on 7 May. But with more than two months until voting day, and with the margins between possible government scenarios so tight, there are enough moving parts to yet turn the wheels in favour of either Cameron or Miliband.

At this stage, the most important factor in determining the election outcome is Scotland, and whether Labour can recover votes there. Labour’s win in most Scottish seats in 2010 was so large that even a small movement back to the party would save a significant numbers of those seats. As such, the size of Labour’s loss in Scotland will matter greatly in determining who between Miliband and Cameron emerges atop the largest party in May.”

This is the key point from a new analysis of the likely outcome of the coming General Election which you can read here.


 




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