Whatever the Scots decide in the referendum on independence, the United Kingdom will never be the same
In my lifetime, I have never known a period of such political high drama as we approach the referendum on Scottish independence next Thursday and the polls show the ‘yes’ vote and the ‘no’ vote neck and neck. It has been inspiring to see serious issues debated seriously (although not always honestly or respectfully) and it looks as if the turnout will be very high – which is good for democracy. Whatever the decision, the consequences will be enormous and long-lasting and, in many cases, unpredictable and even unintended..
If the ‘yes’ vote wins, we will probably have immediate uncertainty on the currency and financial markets and 18 months of intense negotiation between the Scottish and UK governments and parliaments. The nature of the UK General Election in June 2015 would be totally transformed. Then, once the Labour Party loses its substantial share of the Scottish seats in the Westminster Parliament, it would find it hard to form a majority government. The “Guardian” today has attempted to answer some of the many questions that are being asked about impact of independence.
But the consequences could well go beyond the United Kingdom. An independent Scotland with currency problems and an application to join the European Union could unsettle the Eurozone, encourage European recession, and even encourage some other parts of other countries to renew their pressure for their own independence.
If, on the other hand, the ‘no’ vote wins, there will still be considerable and unpredictable change. The three major political parties have promised that a ‘no’ to independence would be followed by an early increase in the powers of the Scottish Parliament. If the ‘no’ vote wins, it is likely to be by a small margin and the debate around full independence for Scotland will continue, as the debate on independence for Quebec continued after the failure of the first referendum there.
With more power to Scotland and a continuation of the Scottish independence debate, the people of Wales and Northern Ireland would certainly want additional powers themselves. Then, inevitably, the major cities – and possibly some regions – of England would put a strong case for more powers.
If further powers are to be devolved to Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland and possibly some English cities, this would require a significant reallocation of seats in the UK Parliaments as between the different parts of the UK. This would have a major impact on the capacity of the Labour Party to win a majority of seats in the new UK House of Commons. We might even have a rethink about the composition and role of the currently absurd body known as the House of Lords.
Whatever happens (and I hope the Scots vote ‘no’), the consequences will take generations to work through …
September 14th, 2014 at 4:08 pm
to join the EEC Scotland would be obliged to join shengan so a border would have to be erected, a new Hadrians wall?
September 15th, 2014 at 10:31 am
Were an iScotland no longer to benefit from the UK’s opt-out on Schengen and have to negotiate its own terms (that’s also one of the known unknowns in this election, although I think the evidence points to the need for iScotland to do just that), then I think they have to be committed to ‘work towards’ Schengen, which is slightly different.
The Scottish Government is sticking by its reference to a continuation of the free travel area that currently exists between the UK and Ireland, for example, but whether that allows for the maintenance of separate immmigration policies is questionable. Scotland wants – and needs – a higher level of immigration than it currently has and I don’t think that’s deliverable in the context of a UK which, in policy terms, is determined to restict immigration.
I’m not making a case for iScotland here, by the way – but, were Scotland to be independent, then, if there was evidence that people were heading to Scotland as an easier route into England, as is possible, a more formal border is absolutely likely.
More likely, however, is that the inter-governmental negotiations that will need to take place between England and Scotland encompass also the need for whatever working visa regimes that Scotland puts in place only give individuals the right to work in Scotland, not in England, leaving any who do slip over the border with no right to work. Fairly easy to do in principle, but not in practice, especially for people who don’t understand that Scotland is (already) a separate country.
Or – my preferred solution, too – that we could just stay together (within a more devolved constitutional settlement). Not because it’s ‘too difficult’ to untie 300 years of exactly this sort of common working but because, in an era of globalisation (even just Europeanisation), it makes no sense to seek to do so by asserting a claim to nationhood.