Water, water, but not everywhere
February 21st, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Yesterday the Government held a water summit to discuss the worsening drought conditions in the South-East of England where I live. In the evening, I attended a seminar on the Government’s recent White Paper on water convened by the think tank the Europrean Policy Forum. It was addressed by Water Minister Richard Benyon and many water experts – all of whom underlined the need for the UK to have more sustainable policies in relation to our use of water.
The South East has had the dried winter since 1992 with only 73% of expected rainfall. Since October 2010, the region has had 80% of the long-term average rainfall. leading to a huge cumulative shortfall. In the Thames Valley and London, rainfall has been below average for 18 of the last 23 months.
We all have a part to play in dealing with this situation and my own web site carries advice on how to save water.
Posted in Environment | Comments (0)
Latest news on baby Catrin
February 19th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
My beautiful granddaughter Catrin is now 13 months old and doing really well. The week before last was tough as teeth three and four came through at the top, but this week she has been back to her usual cheerful self.
I try to see her for a couple of hours each week, usually collecting her from nursery when I have a meeting in town. In fact, this week, I managed two visits: an afternoon collection from nursery and an evening session of babysitting. Every time I see her, she is more mobile and energetic and confident. She is such an absolute joy.
“Never mind taking another photo, granddad
– get back pushing me round the flat!”
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (1)
A review of “The Descendants”
February 19th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
George Clooney gives one of the best performances of his career in the new movie “The Descendants” which I have reviewed here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
How worried should we be about Iran?
February 18th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
Worried? Certainly. Very worried? Probably. Talking of a military attack by israel or the United States as soon as September or October? Hopefully, not.
In an article in today’s “Guardian” newspaper, Ian Black explains why it suits everyone to exaggerate Iran’s power. The article concludes with a quote from Emile Hokayem of the Institute of Strategic Studiesd who states:
“The fundamental problem is that Iran’s friends and enemies both overestimate its power and influence. The west believes its own perceptions. Israel’s officially endorsed existential concern about Iran makes Israelis feel more vulnerable and more nervous … than warranted, which is massively counterproductive. In Washington, the hawks exaggerate to create a sense of urgency. The Gulf states hype things, too. But if you look at the substance, Iran doesn’t come across as a particularly powerful country. It’s trying to find its place in the international system and it’s failing. We need to rightsize the Iranian challenge.”
As long ago as February 2007 (that is, five years ago), I did a blog posting about the serious public discussion then taking place about Israel’s expected attack on Iran because it was believed that Iran was on the verge of acquiring a nuclear bomb.
In August 2009, I did a blog posting entitled “Should we live with a nuclear Iran?” This may be a question that we have to revisit.
Two years ago, I made a visit to Iran – my account here – and saw at first hand how many Iranians hate the current regime. I fear that a military attack, based on challengeable assumptions about both Iran’s intentions and capabilities in the nuclear field, would inflame the whole Middle East, threatening the prospects for more liberal movements in Iran and elsewhere. If I am right, an attack would not make Israel saver overall and would set back democratic trends in the whole Middle East as well as massively inflaming relations with Russia and China.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Who are these credit rating agencies? (2)
February 16th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
That was the question I asked in my posting yesterday and today the “Guadian” devoted three and a half pages to a feature addressing precisely this issue.
Patrick Kingsley points out:
“More people would trust the agencies if they hadn’t got so much so wrong so recently. In 2009 Moody’s issued a report titled “Investor fears over Greek government liquidity misplaced”; within six months, the country was seeking a bailout. Meanwhile, S&P’s sovereign debt team miscalculated US debt by as much as $2tn when it downgraded America’s credit rating last August.”
He explains that:
“In the run-up to 2008, a staggering proportion of mortgage-based debts were rated AAA, when in fact they were junk. The same goes for groups such as Enron, Lehman Brothers and AIG. Days before they went bust, Moody’s, S&P, and Fitch all still rated these failing companies as safe investments. Shockingly, more than half of all corporate debt ever rated AAA by S&P has been downgraded within seven years.”
Is there an alternative to the stranglehold by three dominant credit rating agencies?
” ‘The obvious solution would be to take this public service into public hands,’ Aditya Chakrabortty has argued. ‘Let’s have a ratings agency run by the UN, funded by pooled contributions from both lenders and borrowers … Let’s make the ratings business a utility, rather than a semi-cartel that intimidates elected politicians and rakes in excess profits. It’s time to break up the bullying double-act.’ “
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Who are these credit rating agencies? (1)
February 15th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
This week, we had the news that the UK economy might lose its valued triple-A rating. The statement from the Moody’s credit rating agency put the UK on “negative outlook”, implying a 30% chance of losing its AAA credit rating within 18 months. But who are these credit rating agencies that have such power and influence?
Three companies absolutely dominate the CRA market: Moody’s and Standard & Poor’s market share is around 40% each and Fitch’s market share is around 15%, so that the Big Three therefore hold some 95% of the market.
There are a whole host of criticisms which can be made of the CRAs as explained here.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (1)
A review of “Incendies”
February 14th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
You’ve probably never seen a French Canadian film and, unless you’re a member of a service like Lovefilm (as I am), you will find it difficult to locate such movies, but I can really recommend “Incendies” which I have reviewed here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
The ‘princeling’ who would be ‘king’
February 14th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
If there’s one thing the Chinese Communism Party does well it is succession planning. Ever since Barack Obama became US President in January 2009, we have not been absolutely sure that he would still be President in 2013. But, since the Party Congress in 2007 , we have known that Xi Jinping will succeed Hu Jintao as China’s President at the end of this year.
The “Guardian” today has a major profile of this enigmatic character who will soon be leading the world’s most populous nation.
His best-known quote is as follows:
“There are some well-fed foreigners who have nothing better to do than point fingers at our affairs. China does not, first, export revolution; second, export poverty and hunger; third, cause troubles for you. What else is there to say?”
Or put another way: “You can trust us not to interfere in your country, even if the Syrian regime is murdering its citizens, so don’t interfere in our affairs such as Tibet or Taiwan.”
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
2012 – a year of anniversaries
February 13th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
As this article on the BBC web site points out, 2012 will see all sorts of anniversaries:
“2012 is set to be a bumper year for such commemorations. Between the 200th anniversary of the birth of Charles Dickens and the Diamond Jubilee celebrations, yet to come are two significant but slightly ambiguous centenaries: the death of Captain Scott, which took place in March 1912, and the sinking of the Titanic in the following month.”
However, the article does not mention one anniversary which is close to my heart. Next month, Vee and I will have been married 30 years. A celebration with family and friends is being organised.
Posted in History | Comments (0)
A review of “A Dangerous Method”
February 12th, 2012 by Roger Darlington
A film about conflicting schools of psychoanalysis in which Keira Knightley shows her breasts? What a way to spend a Sunday morning – but I did, dear reader, I did (together with two close friends). See my review here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)