The Royal Air Force’s 100th anniversary flypast
July 10th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
The wonderful flypast over Buckingham Palace at 1 pm today consisted of 100 aircraft of 23 types with nearly 200 aircrew from 25 different squadrons operating from 14 RAF stations and three civilian airfields. The highlight was a formation 22 Typhoons making out the number 100.
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What’s happening in Ethiopia? – and do you care?
July 10th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
Two important books which I’ve read recently – “Enlightenment Now” [my review here] and “Factfulness” [my review here] – both make the fundamental point that most of the progress which is being made by humankind is not reported by the media because it is gradual and undramatic and therefore unnewsworthy. This is especially true of developments in Africa and Asia which seem to be of little interest to many people in Europe and America.
It appears to me that a good example of this is the advances being made in Ethiopia – a country you’ve never visited and you hardly ever read about.
I visited Ethiopia three years ago and the conclusion of my account noted:
“… for the tourist who wants something different and is prepared for some challenges, Ethiopia is a great destination. The exotic names of places we visited were themselves magical: Addis Ababa, Axum, Lalibela … But the history was so rich and fascinating, whether it was the skeleton of Lucy, the stelae of Axum, the rock churches of Lalibela, or the castles of Gondar and the terrain was awesome whether it was the mountains of the Simien National Park or the waters of Lake Tana. In fact, four of the locations we viewed are World Heritage Sites.”
In recent months, some significant political developments have been occurring in Ethiopia. As this article explains:
“Abiy Ahmed, the prime minister of Ethiopia, has accelerated a radical reform programme that is overturning politics in the vast, strategically significant African country.Since coming to power as prime minister in April, Abiy has electrified Ethiopia with his informal style, charisma and energy, earning comparisons to Nelson Mandela, Justin Trudeau, Barack Obama and Mikhail Gorbachev.
The 42-year-old – who took power following the surprise resignation of his predecessor, Haile Mmariam Dessalegn – has so far reshuffled his cabinet, fired a series of controversial and hitherto untouchable civil servants, reached out to hostile neighbours and rivals, lifted bans on websites and other media, freed thousands of political prisoners, ordered the partial privatisation of massive state-owned companies and ended a state of emergency imposed to quell widespread unrest.”
Ethiopia still has huge problems but there are reasons to be cheerful including a new accord between Ethiopia and Eritrea.
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A review of the independent film “The Butterfly Tree”
July 9th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
I saw this very low budget film last weekend at the Oz Film Festival in London when it was followed by a Q & A with first-time Australian writer and director Priscilla Cameron.
It tells the tangled story of how widower Al (Ewen Leslie) and his emotionally damaged son Fin (Ed Oxenbould) are both attracted to the undoubted charms of Evelyn (Melissa george), a former burlesque dancer who now runs a local flower shop.
It is a colourful and inventive production. but rather quirky and somewhat unclear, and therefore the kind of film that would benefit from a second viewing – but you would really have to search it out even for a first viewing (worth it though).
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My review of “Factfulness” by Hans Rosling – or 10 reasons we’re wrong about the world
July 9th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
I read this important book by Swedish professor of international health Hans Rosling shortly after reading “Enlightenment Now” by American professor of psychology Steven Pinker which was published just a few months earlier [my review here].
Both works essentially have the same message: if you look at the facts, on most measures humankind is making immense, sometimes spectactular, progress – but most people do not know or will not accept this. Whereas Pinker concentrates on the facts with a little analysis of the reasons for disbelief in quite a heavy work, Rosling offers fewer (but enough) facts and instead focusses on the “ten reasons we’re wrong about the world” in a lighter, more anecdotal and – frankly – somewhat repetitive treatment.
Another significant difference between to the two books is that Rosling – influenced by his work as a doctor – emphasises the progress made in Asia and Africa which are unappreciated by the western media and those who consumer it. He writes: “Over the past twenty years, the proportion of the global population living in extreme poverty has halved” and asserts that “I consider this to be the most importtant change that has happened in the world in my lifetime”.
Rosling devotes a chapter each to the following issues to explain why we are so blind to incredibly important facts:
- The Gap Instinct: “that irrestistible temptation we have to divide all kinds of things into two distinct and often conflicting groups with an imagined gap”, such as the view that the globe in neatly divided into rich and poor nations with little appreciation of the spread of wealth between and within countries.
- The Negativity Instinct: “our tendency to notice the bad more than the good” because exceptional set-backs are more newsworthy than sustained but gradual progess, so we remember reports of murders or fatal accidents but underplay an increase in life expectancy from 31 years in 1800 to 72 years today.
- The Straight Line Instinct: the assumption that a straight line graph will continue into the future, making us think for example that the global population (now 7.7 billion) is irresistibly growing when convincing UN forecasts show a flattening of the population (at somwehere between 10-12 billion) by the end of the century.
- The Fear Instinct: the tendency to be afraid of risks that are in reality ever-diminishing, such as disasters which – measured as deaths per million people in 10-year averages – has slumped from 453 in the 1930s to 10 in 2010-2016.
- The Size Instinct: the habit of looking at “a lonely number” and getting things “out of proportion”, so that a terrible statistic like the number of babies who died worldwide in 2016 (4.2 million) needs to be be seen in the context of the toll the year before of 4.4 million and in the 1950s of 14.4 million.
- The Generalization Instinct: the prejudice to depend on stereotypes, instead of evidence, which means that we fail to appreciate that “the main factor that affects how people live is not their religion, their culture, or the country they live in, but their income”.
- The Destiny Instinct: “the idea that innate characteristics determine the destinies of people, countries, religions, or cultures” which, as a result. meant that “the fastest drop in babies per woman in world history went completely unreported in the free Western media” (this was in Iran where the figure is now only 1.6).)
- The Single Perspective Instinct: a “preference for single causes and single solutions” which can lead us to think for instance that the solution is always free markets, but the USA spends twice as much per capita on health care than other capitalist cointries while 39 other countries have a higher life expectancy.
- The Blame Instinct: a wish “to find a clear, simple reason for why something bad has happened” when “to understand most of the world’s significant problems we have to look beyond a guilty individual and to the system”(he discusses the topical and controversial issue of refugees).
- The Urgency Instinct: the wish “to take immediate action in the face of a perceived danger” so for example, in the area of climate change, we need to avoid overstating particular risks and look hard at the actual data and consider what would be most effective.
Note: Hans Rosling died of pancreatic cancer in 2017, having devoted the last years of his life to writing “Factfulness”, and the book was completed by his son and daughter-in-law who were the co-founders with him of the Gapfinder Foundation.
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Is Britain’s National Health Service the best healthcare system in the world?
July 6th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
In the week that the NHS celebrated its 70th birthday, this is a good question to ask. On the one hand, the British are immensely proud of the NHS; on the other hand, there is a widespread view that the system is now underfunded and failing to deliver consistent service.
Some relevant facts and figures can be found in this article in the “Guardian” newspaper.
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Will there be Cabinet resignations at today’s crucial Chequers meeting? Perhaps not …
July 6th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
Hard Brexit? Soft Brexit? Mish-mash Brexit? Who knows? But a special meeting of the Cabinet today at the Prime Minister’s country retreat of Chequers is supposed to provide some clarity. The trouble is that Cabinet ministers are totally divided on the best way forward.
The conclusion of a piece on the Chequers meeting in today’s “Guardian” newspaper points out:
“There has been speculation that the Chequers summit could could be marred by cabinet resignations. However, there are immediate reasons why this may not be an attractive option: any minister who quits on the spot would lose access to their ministerial car, meaning that they would have to walk several miles to the nearest train station.”
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After the (welcome) departure of Scott Pruett, just how many resignations and dismissals have there been from the Trump administration?
July 6th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
The Trump administration has from the beginning looked like a modern-day version of “Game Of Throne” with bodies everywhere. The latest fall from power is Scott Pruett from the environment brief, but there have now been so many departures that it’s impossible to recall them all in a record-breaking series of resignations and dismissals.
Fortunately, Wikipedia has complied a list (although this includes routine changes of office). As the page points out: “Several Trump appointees, including National Security Advisor Michael Flynn, White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus, White House Communications Director Anthony Scaramucci, and Secretary of Health and Human Services Tom Price have the shortest-service tenures in the history of their respective offices.”
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Why does the health service in the United States cost so much and deliver so little?
July 5th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
I was born in Britain on 25 June 1948 so, except for 10 days of my life, I have benefited from a National Health Service – which is 70 years old today – that is publicly-funded and free at the point of use. But the health model in the USA is very different, as I have been reminded by the book that I am currently reading: “Factfulness” by Hans Rosling.
Swedish Professor of International Health Rosling explains that the United States spends more than twice as much per capita on health care as other capitalist countries – around $9,400 compared to around $3,600 – and for that money its citizens can expect lives that are three years shorter. The USA spends more per capita on health care than any other country in the world, but 39 countries have longer life expectancies.
Why? Rosling refers to an OECD study which concludes that costs in the US health care system are higher across the board, but in particular costs of outpatient care and administration, and that this does not lead to better outcomes, because the system is not incentivising doctors to spend time with the patients most in need of care.
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Why we need a new consumer advocate for telecommunications consumers
July 4th, 2018 by Roger Darlington
This is the Executive Summary of my submission to BEIS on the Consumer Green Paper “Modernising Consumer Markets”:
This submission only addresses one question in the Green Paper:
Q5: Is there a need to change the consumer advocacy arrangements in the telecommunications sector? If so, what arrangements would be most effective in delivering consumer benefits, including for those who are most vulnerable?
This submission argues that:
- Consumer advocacy in telecoms is too weak compared to both past experience and to other regulated sectors and too under-resourced in relation to the needs of consumers who spend significant amounts but experience real detriment in this complex and changing market.
- A new consumer advocate for telecoms consumers should be established outside the regulator and the most convenient, cost-effective and capable home for such a new advocate would seem to be Citizens Advice. Funding needs to be found quickly and not await a legislative mechanism. Voluntary seed-funding from a group of providers, the allocation of fines, or an industry levy should be considered.
- A consumer voice within the major companies in the telecommunications sector would complement meaningfully and helpfully the work of existing bodies like the Communications Consumer Panel and the new consumer advocate outside the regulator. BEIS and Ofcom should use their ‘soft power’ to encourage the largest telecoms providers voluntarily to set up such internal consumer advisory groups.
If you would like a copy of the full text of the submission, e-mail me at:
rogerdarlington@dsl.pipex.com
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Holiday in Cyprus (8): Pafos
July 1st, 2018 by Roger Darlington
Sunday was the last day of our tour of Cyprus and was dominated by visits to two archaeological sites, neither of which I had heard of before this holiday. First though, we were taken on a half hour walk along the seafront of Limassol, an attractive city which, with some 200,000 citizens, is beginning to rival Nicosia in terms of population.
Then we drove west through a citrus plantation and the British RAF base of Akrotiri to reach the first archaeological site at a place called Kourion. This is located on a hill overlooking the Mediterranean, so it must have been a spectacular place when it was first settled by the Mycenaeans and reached the height of its importance in Roman times before being destroyed by an earthquake in 365 AD. We viewed 4th century mosaics and a restored Roman theatre.
We stopped again further west at a place called Petra tou Romiou which is the legendary birthplace of Aphrodite, the Greek goddess of love. This is a beautiful cove surrounded by limestone crags and it had attracted swimmers or sun worshippers as well as us photographers who could not fail to take stunning shots.
Continuing our journey west along the coast, we reached the town of Pafos where there is the Kato Pafos archaeological site discovered in 1961 and excavated by Poles since 1962. Before lunch, we viewed the Agia Kyriaki Church, where the Catholic mass has been observed continuously since the 4th century, and the ruins of the Basilica of Chrysopolitissa.
Lunch was included in the package and served outside in bright sunshine at the “Hondros Taverna”. It was a traditional Greek meze and the courses just kept coming and coming ,, and coming. No wonder the word ‘hondros’ translates as ‘fat man’.
After lunch, we went round the main grounds of the Kato Pafos archaeological site. The city was founded around 320 BC but we observed a series of buildings containing wonderful mosaics from the 2nd, 3rd and 4th centuries which are viewed from raised walkways. Our final visit of the day and the tour was to Pafos Castle which was restored by the Ottomans in 1592 and provides splendid views of today’s town harbour.
For our final night in Cyprus, dinner was not included, so the group of four decided to splash out by eating at the Italian restaurant in the hotel, enjoying a three-course meal with beer, wine, and a complimentary spirit. We’ll sleep tonight …
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