Vee and I have now been married 33 years
March 19th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
Today is the 33rd wedding anniversary for Vee and me. I know that the number does not end with a nought or a five, but somehow it seems special. Certainly Vee is special and I feel very fortunate to have her as my partner in life.
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (0)
Do you understand the difference between Sunni and Shia Islam? (2)
March 18th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
In an earlier posting, i explained the fundamental reason for the schism between Sunni and Shia Muslims. In terms of how many there are of each branch and sub-branch of Islam and where they live, you’ll find a really helpful infographic here.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (0)
Four years of death, destruction and diaspora for Syrians
March 17th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
The week 15-21 March 2011 – exactly four years ago – is considered by the media to mark the beginning of the Syrian civil war or uprising.
Since then, an estimated 220,000 have died. Nearly seven million have fled their homes but remain within the country. Some four million are living in camps in the neighbouring countries of Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey in what is the world’s worst refugee crisis since the end of the Second World War.
The UK’s is top of the donor league table, providing £800 million. But many countries need to do so much, much more and the UN Security Council needs to be much more decisive.
Vee and I were on holiday in Syria from 3-9 March 2011 before spending a few days in Lebanon. We were among the last tourists to the country for probably a generation. If you want to know what the place was like before it descended into civil war, you can read my account here.
Posted in My life & thoughts, World current affairs | Comments (0)
Should the democratic process be subject to thresholds?
March 16th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
The UK Conservative Party’s 2015 election manifesto is expected to promise that a future Conservative Government, if elected, would dramatically tighten up industrial action laws, with a minimum 50 per cent ballot participation threshold alongside a requirement for unions in ‘core’ public services to obtain a minimum 40 per cent majority of all those eligible to vote. Are such requirements – which would threaten to invalidate many ballots supporting strike action – justifiable in a democratic society?
It can – and has – been argued that it is not reasonable to impose electoral thresholds which do not apply to the UK political system (in local and general elections) and that such initiatives can only be seen as an attack on the democratic right to organise and take strike action.
First, there have been a number of recent parliamentary by-elections and local elections where turnout has been nowhere near 50 per cent; turnout for the 2008 London Mayoral election was just 45 per cent and in 2012 only 38.1 per cent; for the 2014 European Parliament elections it was just over 34.2 per cent; for the 2012 Alternative Vote (AV) electoral system referendum it was just 41 per cent; the lowest ever by-election turnout of 18.2 per cent was recorded in the 2012 Manchester Central by-election, with a just above threshold of 53 per cent in the 2014 Newark by-election; even worse, recent Police and Crime Commissioner elections have resulted in turnouts as low as 16.4 per cent in Northumbria and 10.3 per cent in the West Midlands. Moreover general elections do not take into account the estimated 3.5 million people who are not even registered to vote.
Second, research by the GMB union calculated that just 16 out of the 650 elected Members of Parliament secured the support of 40 per cent of those entitled to vote in their parliamentary constituency area election in 2010 (Labour Research, February 2015). Not one MP would pass a threshold demanding support from 50 per cent of the electorate. Only 23.5 per cent of the electorate voted for the Conservatives in May 2010 and only 1 in 7 cast their votes for the Liberal Democrats. Likewise the Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, was elected in 2012 with less than 50 per cent of both first and second preference votes and on a turnout of only 38.1 per cent.
Was it not the Conservative hero Winston Churchill who famously declared that a majority of one is sufficient?
Posted in British current affairs | Comments (0)
Have you ever met someone for the first time in 45 years?
March 15th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
No, neither had I – until today.
From 1967-1971, I did a degree in Management Sciences from the (then) University of Manchester Institute of Science and Technology (UMIST) where I spent a year (1969-70) as sabbatical President of the Students’ Union. This morning, I met the person who preceded me as Union President and the person who was effectively my deputy when I was President. I had not seen one for 45 years and the other for around 40 years.
I found our meeting a weird experience. For a start, i did not recognise either of them at first. Both had changed so much. They said that I had changed the least. That may be true physically, but I suspect that I have changed the most in other ways.
Naturally we reminisced a good deal about our university days. Looking back, I’m not sure I fully understood what I was doing and what was happening to me. Also I was surprised today at how little I remember in terms of events and names. Sometimes I think that my life is a dream …
Posted in My life & thoughts | Comments (1)
Who will win the Israeli general election?
March 15th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
My American Jewish friend David Eden has produced this analysis of what might happen after the election on Tuesday:
“With the Israeli elections just a few days away, many of my friends have been asking me what the results will be. Will Bibi win? Will it be Herzog & Livni? Which will be the third largest party, the nationalist/religious Jewish Home or the Joint Arab List? Will the “Anybody but Bibi” trend succeed in making the ex-Likud minister Moshe Kahlon the new king-maker of Israeli politics?
I’ll tell you the truth: I can’t answer any of those questions with any degree of certainty. Every possible answer raises more questions. The most reliable polls in the last days still show that up to 20% of the voters haven’t decided for whom they will vote. There can still be a game-changing event in the last few days before the voting booths open. Perhaps a barrage of mortar fire from Gaza, or Hezbollah rockets from Lebanon. Maybe a terror attack in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv. Or a Mossad operation in Teheran could be discovered and blown. Or there may be some new disclosure related to a scandal involving Sara Netanyahu. Any of these could affect the outcome of the vote.
But the voting is only the beginning of the process of forming the new ruling coalition. The Israeli President will need to consult with delegations from all of the factions before giving the responsibility of forming the new government to one of the Members of Knesset. Usually this is given to the MK who has been endorsed by enough of the faction leaders to give him or her the best chance of putting together a coalition. It will probably be the leader of the largest faction, but it doesn’t have to be. And then this MK will have several weeks to pass a confidence vote for the new government in the full Knesset.
Still, there are not more than a few possible outcomes. I’ll try to describe them here:
1) A broad National Unity Government: This would happen if both the Likud AND the center-left Zionist Union do less well than expected, and if Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home garners close to the same number of votes as the Likud. To “balance” the coalition, the centrist Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Kahlon’s Kulanu parties would be included, as well as the Sephardic/religious party Shas. Rounding out the coalition, it would also include either the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism, or current Foreign Minister Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, but probably not both, as they have problems with each other, as well as with Bibi’s leadership. Left out of the coalition: the Joint Arab List (which could be expected to be the largest faction in the Opposition), the left-wing Meretz, and if they succeed in getting past the minimum threshold, Yahad (which broke off from Shas).
This coalition would most likely have Bibi as Prime Minister without a rotation agreement with Herzog, because of the larger presence of the Right. The internal contradictions and rivalries within the coalition would not only mean that there would be no progress on re-opening negotiations with the Palestinians, but would also be fraught with instability. It could work to try to deal with some of Israel’s economic and social issues for a while, but would probably fall within a year, give or take a few months, and Israel would need to go back to the voting booths.
2) A narrow right-wing coalition: This would be a clear victory for Bibi and Bennett. Bibi would stay on as PM, but if Bennett does well, it would see a clear consolidation of his position as the main right-wing rival to Bibi in the next elections.
Depending on his strength, Bennett would not only demand the Defense portfolio, but his conditions also would give the settlements much more influence over budgets and essentially kill any chance of improving the relations of Israel not only with the Palestinians, but also with Europe and the US. It would give Bibi a “green light” to proceed with the escalation on the Iran/nuclear issue. It would also advance the nationalist/fundamentalist and anti-democratic efforts of the Israeli extreme Right.
In this constellation, Bibi could also count on the support of other right-wing parties, probably including Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yahad. As a “fig leaf”, Bibi would work to bring in at least 2 of the following: Shas, and Kulanu or Yesh Atid (but probably not both), and maybe the UTJ. The opposition would be led by Herzog, include Meretz and the Joint Arab List, and be extremely vocal.
3) A narrow National Unity Government: In this scenario, the Zionist Union would need to have a strong lead over the Likud, both Yesh Atid and Kulanu would do well, and Bennet’s Jewish Home would not have too strong a showing. The Zionist Union would lead a coalition with a clear centrist agenda, and try to bring the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations back to life. Its core parties would include the Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Shas, and the UTJ. Popular pressure would force the inclusion of the Likud, but quite possibly Bibi Netanyahu would be forced to resign as party leader. If Yisrael Beiteinu survives the election, Avigdor Lieberman would make real efforts to join, playing up the Russian immigrant community he claims to represent. Yahad would definitely not be included, nor would the Jewish Home party. The Joint Arab List would also be left out, although the coalition would probably appoint an Arab Minister and make efforts to improve the status of Israel’s Arab minority.
Meretz might be invited to join, but would refuse to sit in a coalition with Lieberman, and would probably choose to stay out. While supporting the coalition in its efforts to renew the peace process, as well as end the discrimination of Israeli Arabs. It would continue lobbying in favor of minority rights for Israel Arabs and Bedouins, LGBT equality, and against religious coercion.
This would possibly be the most stable coalition possible, but would be the most difficult to form. Herzog and Livni would rotate as PM, both Kahlon and Yair Lapid would vie for the Treasury, as well as the economist Manuel Trajtenberg from Labor. The division of ministries would be, to say the least, challenging, so the likelihood of this coalition is not high.
4) A narrow centrist government: This is the most unlikely possible result, although the most likely to move the peace process forward after its long hibernation. At its core would be the Zionist Union, and depending on the strength of their electoral outcomes, Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Shas, and possibly the UTJ. It is conceivable that Yisrael Beiteinu would moderate its positions to join, especially if Meretz opts to stay out. Left out in the cold would be the Likud and Jewish Home.
Meretz would be faced with a real conundrum. It is a natural partner for the Labor party, which is at the center of the Zionist Union, and would definitely want to be back in government (for the first time since 1999-2000), but would have to make many compromises on their core issues to be able to join this coalition, whose tendencies would clearly lean to the center, not to the Left. It would, of course, support the coalition on reaching a compromise with the Palestinians. But it would find it challenging to support it on economic issues that don’t address the inequities in Israeli society, nor would it support the concessions on religious matters that the UTJ and Shas would insist on, and that Herzog is sympathetic to. This coalition would not be supportive of marriage equality for gays and lesbians, would explain away their refusal to insist on recognizing civil marriage on the need to respect their orthodox partners.
And, the Joint Arab List would be asked to support, but not join, this coalition. In return for their support, they would see a fairer allocation of budgets for Arab municipal authorities, some legislation against discrimination, probably an Arab minister. But they would not be accepted as full partners in Israeli society, nor in the political arena.”
The actual result matters not just for Israelis, but for the Middle East and therefore for the world.
If you want to know the background to all this, you might like to read my short guide to the Israeli political system.
Posted in World current affairs | Comments (2)
A review of “Kingsman: The Secret Service”
March 14th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
It’s taken me a while to catch up with this movie, but I’m so glad I did so. You can read my review here.
Posted in Cultural issues | Comments (0)
That’s one small step for Apple, one giant leap for Roger
March 14th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
One of my New Year resolutions was to upgrade my mobile phone and my mobile network.
Two years ago, I upgraded from an iPhone 1 to an iPhone 5 and from 2G to 3G.
This week, I upgraded from the iPhone 5 to the iPhone 6 and from 3G to 4G.
I may be 66 but I like to keep up with the technology.
Posted in My life & thoughts, Science & technology | Comments (0)
My 1st short story: “Making A Difference”
March 13th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
It’s almost six years since I started to write short stories, although I haven’t written one for a while now. So I thought it was time to give them another airing and, over coming Fridays, I’ll highlight one short story for you to read to end the week or start the weekend.
My first short story was set in an actual cafe in London called “Gaby’s”. Since I wrote the story, the cafe was threatened with closure but, following a lively campaign, it survived and I still frequent it.
The story is called “Making A Difference” and you can read it here. Feel free to comment.
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Still more evidence that homeopathy does not work – or, if it does ‘work’, it is simply the placebo effect
March 12th, 2015 by Roger Darlington
As this article highlights, the latest findings in Australia add to a series of other studies proving that homeopathic preparations have no proven benefits to patients. As Ian Sample puts it:
“Scientific, and unscientific, studies abound on homeopathy. To date, there is no convincing evidence that like cures like; that water retains a memory of the molecules it once held, as practitioners maintain; or that extreme dilutions of substances have pharmaceutical effects. What studies do show is that homeopathic preparations, and a good chat with someone who emphathises with their patients, can induce a placebo response that makes some people feel better.”
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