Who will win the Israeli general election?
My American Jewish friend David Eden has produced this analysis of what might happen after the election on Tuesday:
“With the Israeli elections just a few days away, many of my friends have been asking me what the results will be. Will Bibi win? Will it be Herzog & Livni? Which will be the third largest party, the nationalist/religious Jewish Home or the Joint Arab List? Will the “Anybody but Bibi” trend succeed in making the ex-Likud minister Moshe Kahlon the new king-maker of Israeli politics?
I’ll tell you the truth: I can’t answer any of those questions with any degree of certainty. Every possible answer raises more questions. The most reliable polls in the last days still show that up to 20% of the voters haven’t decided for whom they will vote. There can still be a game-changing event in the last few days before the voting booths open. Perhaps a barrage of mortar fire from Gaza, or Hezbollah rockets from Lebanon. Maybe a terror attack in Jerusalem or Tel Aviv. Or a Mossad operation in Teheran could be discovered and blown. Or there may be some new disclosure related to a scandal involving Sara Netanyahu. Any of these could affect the outcome of the vote.
But the voting is only the beginning of the process of forming the new ruling coalition. The Israeli President will need to consult with delegations from all of the factions before giving the responsibility of forming the new government to one of the Members of Knesset. Usually this is given to the MK who has been endorsed by enough of the faction leaders to give him or her the best chance of putting together a coalition. It will probably be the leader of the largest faction, but it doesn’t have to be. And then this MK will have several weeks to pass a confidence vote for the new government in the full Knesset.
Still, there are not more than a few possible outcomes. I’ll try to describe them here:
1) A broad National Unity Government: This would happen if both the Likud AND the center-left Zionist Union do less well than expected, and if Naftali Bennett’s Jewish Home garners close to the same number of votes as the Likud. To “balance” the coalition, the centrist Yair Lapid’s Yesh Atid and Kahlon’s Kulanu parties would be included, as well as the Sephardic/religious party Shas. Rounding out the coalition, it would also include either the ultra-Orthodox United Torah Judaism, or current Foreign Minister Lieberman’s Yisrael Beiteinu, but probably not both, as they have problems with each other, as well as with Bibi’s leadership. Left out of the coalition: the Joint Arab List (which could be expected to be the largest faction in the Opposition), the left-wing Meretz, and if they succeed in getting past the minimum threshold, Yahad (which broke off from Shas).
This coalition would most likely have Bibi as Prime Minister without a rotation agreement with Herzog, because of the larger presence of the Right. The internal contradictions and rivalries within the coalition would not only mean that there would be no progress on re-opening negotiations with the Palestinians, but would also be fraught with instability. It could work to try to deal with some of Israel’s economic and social issues for a while, but would probably fall within a year, give or take a few months, and Israel would need to go back to the voting booths.
2) A narrow right-wing coalition: This would be a clear victory for Bibi and Bennett. Bibi would stay on as PM, but if Bennett does well, it would see a clear consolidation of his position as the main right-wing rival to Bibi in the next elections.
Depending on his strength, Bennett would not only demand the Defense portfolio, but his conditions also would give the settlements much more influence over budgets and essentially kill any chance of improving the relations of Israel not only with the Palestinians, but also with Europe and the US. It would give Bibi a “green light” to proceed with the escalation on the Iran/nuclear issue. It would also advance the nationalist/fundamentalist and anti-democratic efforts of the Israeli extreme Right.
In this constellation, Bibi could also count on the support of other right-wing parties, probably including Yisrael Beiteinu, and Yahad. As a “fig leaf”, Bibi would work to bring in at least 2 of the following: Shas, and Kulanu or Yesh Atid (but probably not both), and maybe the UTJ. The opposition would be led by Herzog, include Meretz and the Joint Arab List, and be extremely vocal.
3) A narrow National Unity Government: In this scenario, the Zionist Union would need to have a strong lead over the Likud, both Yesh Atid and Kulanu would do well, and Bennet’s Jewish Home would not have too strong a showing. The Zionist Union would lead a coalition with a clear centrist agenda, and try to bring the Israeli-Palestinian negotiations back to life. Its core parties would include the Zionist Union, Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Shas, and the UTJ. Popular pressure would force the inclusion of the Likud, but quite possibly Bibi Netanyahu would be forced to resign as party leader. If Yisrael Beiteinu survives the election, Avigdor Lieberman would make real efforts to join, playing up the Russian immigrant community he claims to represent. Yahad would definitely not be included, nor would the Jewish Home party. The Joint Arab List would also be left out, although the coalition would probably appoint an Arab Minister and make efforts to improve the status of Israel’s Arab minority.
Meretz might be invited to join, but would refuse to sit in a coalition with Lieberman, and would probably choose to stay out. While supporting the coalition in its efforts to renew the peace process, as well as end the discrimination of Israeli Arabs. It would continue lobbying in favor of minority rights for Israel Arabs and Bedouins, LGBT equality, and against religious coercion.
This would possibly be the most stable coalition possible, but would be the most difficult to form. Herzog and Livni would rotate as PM, both Kahlon and Yair Lapid would vie for the Treasury, as well as the economist Manuel Trajtenberg from Labor. The division of ministries would be, to say the least, challenging, so the likelihood of this coalition is not high.
4) A narrow centrist government: This is the most unlikely possible result, although the most likely to move the peace process forward after its long hibernation. At its core would be the Zionist Union, and depending on the strength of their electoral outcomes, Yesh Atid, Kulanu, Shas, and possibly the UTJ. It is conceivable that Yisrael Beiteinu would moderate its positions to join, especially if Meretz opts to stay out. Left out in the cold would be the Likud and Jewish Home.
Meretz would be faced with a real conundrum. It is a natural partner for the Labor party, which is at the center of the Zionist Union, and would definitely want to be back in government (for the first time since 1999-2000), but would have to make many compromises on their core issues to be able to join this coalition, whose tendencies would clearly lean to the center, not to the Left. It would, of course, support the coalition on reaching a compromise with the Palestinians. But it would find it challenging to support it on economic issues that don’t address the inequities in Israeli society, nor would it support the concessions on religious matters that the UTJ and Shas would insist on, and that Herzog is sympathetic to. This coalition would not be supportive of marriage equality for gays and lesbians, would explain away their refusal to insist on recognizing civil marriage on the need to respect their orthodox partners.
And, the Joint Arab List would be asked to support, but not join, this coalition. In return for their support, they would see a fairer allocation of budgets for Arab municipal authorities, some legislation against discrimination, probably an Arab minister. But they would not be accepted as full partners in Israeli society, nor in the political arena.”
The actual result matters not just for Israelis, but for the Middle East and therefore for the world.
If you want to know the background to all this, you might like to read my short guide to the Israeli political system.
March 15th, 2015 at 5:11 pm
Actually Roger, I’m an Israeli-American. And I rarely self-identify as Jewish, as I do not adhere to any religion. I left the US when I was 5, and only returned to live in the US when I married an American when I was in my 40’s
March 15th, 2015 at 7:15 pm
Sorry, David – a fair correction. Identity is such an important matter.