What’s happening in Scotland?
Since 1999, Scotland has had its own Parliament, but the British national media hardly ever mention Scottish political affairs, leaving this to the Scottish media. As result, many people outside Scotland will not appreciate just how crucial are the elections for the Scottish Parliament to be held on 3 May.
Ever since the creation of the Scottish Parliament, the administration has been a Labour/Liberal Democrat coalition with the Scottish National Party – the party wanting full independence – being the main party of opposition. The Conservative, Green and Scottish Socialist parties are all represented in the Scottish Parliament. Perhaps the most notable difference compared with Westminster is that the Conservatives are only the fourth largest grouping in the Scottish Parliament.
But Labour’s dominance might be set to change in a few weeks time.
Historically, the SNP has done well in the polls in the mid term but fallen back in support when it comes to an actual election. This year though the SNP is holding on to its lead and the party’s private polling suggests that it could win 45 of the Parliament’s 129 seats. The SNP is being led – for the second time – by Alex Salmond, a formidable politician who hopes to become First Minister. It has won support through an unprecedented telephone canvassing campaign using sophisticated software. It has been helped by voters’ feelings on a range of issues that are not constitutionally within the Scottish Parliament’s remit: the unpopular war in Iraq, the intended renewal of Trident, and the proposed independence of Scotland.
The SNP has promised that, if it is returned to power, it will hold a referendum on Scottish independence. Of course, such a referendum would have no formal authority and there would probably not be a majority for independence anyway, but the campaign around it and the vote for it could undermine the unity of the United Kingdom in the year which marks the 300th anniversary of the union of Scotland with England.
However, the SNP policy on a referendum may block its membership of the administration, even if – as seems likely – it wins the largest number of seats. This is because, under the proportional representation system for electing the Scottish Parliament, no one party is likely to obtain an absolute majority of the 129 seats and any winning party will need one or two other parties to join in a coalition to acquire the necessary majority.
All the other major parties in Scotland – Labour, Lib Dem, Conservative, Green – oppose the holding of a referendum. So either the SNP will have to give up on this fundamental part of its platform or a combination of the other parties will have to build up a majority administration without the SNP or some sort of compromise is found. I doubt that the Nats would give up either the chance to govern or the independence policy, so I suspect some kind of deal or fancy footwork will occur, perhaps around agreement on seeking an increase in the powers of the Scottish Parliament. There is a deadline of 28 days that the Parliament has under the Scotland Act to elect a First Minister which will put pressure on the parties to do deals within a month.
It’s going to be an interesting time ….
March 26th, 2007 at 10:42 am
Stickler for detail I know, but the Greens are pro-independence and would push for a referendum in the first instance. The electoral geography wouldn’t favour this, but (in future) an SNP coalition could be achieved with pro-independence minor parties, including the Greens, Solidarity and SSP. At present, this seems unlikely, but then I again I again think the single greatest destabiliser for Scottish politics is an ‘anyone but the SNP’ administration. Scotland’s already had its fair share of democratic deficits and it would only undermine the legitimacy of Holyrood to be seen to have another. So, in a sense, in the medium term all bets are off.
I’d also put a wager on the Libs and SNP going for the equivalent of a Royal Commission to fudge the issue till mid-way through the Parliament. It could actually be convenient for the Nats to save this fight and go into a referendum in the second-term showing they can actually run something.
On another point, I’d be keen to see a debate begin in earnest about what this all means south of the border (this week’s ‘New Statesman’ is only a start.) For example, what happens to our place on the UN Security Council? Would the likes of Germany, Brazil and all the other contenders likely be satisfied to see the UK seat automatically transfer to England? Questions to be answered – far beyond the usual ‘let them go’ mentality.