How do we make any kind of sense of the current cataclysm in Afghanistan?

Seven years ago, I read and reviewed a book titled “Zone Of Crisis: Afghanistan, Pakistan, Iran And Iraq” by Amin Saikal (2014). These are extracts from my review as it related particularly to Afghanistan:

Afghanistan and Pakistan are predominately Sunni states, while Iraq and Iran have a Shia majority population (the only such countries in the world except for tiny Bahrain and secular Azerbaijan). Afghanistan and Iraq have suffered recent invasions by predominately American and British military forces, while Pakistan and Iran have ‘only’ faced drone attacks and economic sanctions respectively. Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq have some of the veneers of a democracy, but their political institutions are massively flawed, while Iran – the most stable of the states examined – has its own version of elective power that is counterbalanced by a more powerful theocratic elite.

For Afghanistan, Saikal explains how the Taliban and their supporters largely come from the Ghilzai part of the Pashtun community, while former President Karzai and most of his cohort belong to the Durrani segment of the Pashtuns, so that “the conflict within Aghanistan since 2001 has been essentially an intra-Pashtun one”. He is scathing of Karzai insisting: “His approach and policies gave rise to politics of patronage, corruption and inefficiency in both the civilian and military spheres at all levels.” But he is equally critical of the Americans: “the Bush administration failed to draw up a comprehensive and coherent programme of reconstruction for Afghanistan. The approach that it adopted was piecemeal, poorly coordinated and badly implemented.” In this chaotic state, opium cultivation has continued to expand, so that “Afghanistan has for all practical purposes become, once again, a narco-state.”

Although Pakistan of course has its own chapter, Saikal notes that “Developments in the two countries have been so intertwined that some analysts and policymakers have opted to lump them together under the joint designation, ‘Af-Pak’.” But Pakistan has its own ethnic mix with the largest groups (in order) being the Punjabis (who back the Pakistan Muslim League political party), the Sindhis (who support the Pakistan People’s Party), the Pathans as the Pashtuns are called here (responsible for a Taliban insurgency), and the Baluchis (supporting another insurgency). Political power has oscillated between the PML, the PPP, and the military with the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) always massively influential. This is a nation that spends around one quarter of government revenue on defence (which includes a nuclear arsenal) but less than 2% on education and under 1% on health.


 




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