It is now clear that the UK is not going to achieve a “good result” in the coronavirus crisis

In mid March, the British government’s health advisers on the coronavirus crisis told Ministers:

  • The modelling suggests that, without severe social distancing and isolation practices, the death toll could be around 260,000.
  • The modelling suggests that, with the current severe social distancing and isolation practices, the death toll could be around 20,000 or lower.

Days later, the UK went onto national lockdown and we are now four weeks into this lockdown period. We were assured, that if UK deaths from coronavirus could be kept below 20,000 by the end of the pandemic, it would be a “good result” for the country. But the death toll in hospitals now exceeds 15,000 and, with an estimated 6,000 people having already died in care homes from Covid-19, the 20,000 figure is likely already to have been exceeded.

This is not the time to say what we should have done differently – but that time will have to come. Meanwhile we have to keep the death toll as low as possible and to acknowledge that the virus is not indiscriminate. Disproportionately, it affects older people, those with underlying heath issues, ethnic minorities, hospital workers caring for Covid-19 patients, and occupants and staff in care homes.

Clapping each Thursday evening is good, but we need more personal protective equipment, more ventilators, more testing – and a vaccine. Soon.


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