Where now for Ukraine? – next step: the presidential election
This week, I attended a meeting in the House of Commons to discuss Ukraine’s presidential election. The meeting was organised by the Henry Jackson Society and featured three expert speakers: Orysia Lutsevych from Chatham House, Andy Hunder from the Ukrainian Institute in London, and Andrew Foxall of the Henry Jackson Society itself.
The background to the meeting was of course the second revolution in Ukraine that began almost exactly six months ago and led to the fleeing of former president Viktor Yanukovych, the sudden seizure of Crimea by Russia, and last weekend’s separatist ballots in the east of the country. The next stage in the crisis is the presidential election called by the interim government in Kiev which is due to be held on 25 May with a second round on 15 June in the (likely) event that the top candidate on the first round fails to win 50% of the votes.
The billionaire Petro Proshenko – the so-called “Chocolate King” – is currently well in the lead in opinion polls and recently former prime minister Yulia Tymoshenko was overtaken for second place in the polls by former vice prime minister Serhiy Tihipko.
All three speakers wanted the presidential poll to go ahead, even though polling will be difficult in some parts of the country and impossible in Crimea and the event might further antagonise Russia. It was argued that the poll would legitimise the interim government in Kiev, although the president can only formally appoint two ministers and the parliament remains the same for the time being.
It was recognised that, in the short term, the political and economic situation facing any new president and government is horrendous, but speakers suggested that – like Russia is doing – Ukraine and the West need to take a longer term view. Over time, people in the separatist areas might come to realise that their economic best interests lie with a united Ukraine and there are genuine prospects that in the future Ukraine could become energy-independent.
Two of the most memorable quotes of the meeting were: “Simply it is not as bad as it could be” and “In Russian terms – whisper it quietly – Putin is quite liberal”.