Brown bounces back

If a week is a long time in politics (as former Labour Prime Minister Harold Wilson once famously declared), then – especially in current turbulent financial times – two months is almost an eternity. So, according to the pollster Ipsos/MORI, in September the Conservatives had a lead over Labour of 28% and today that lead is a mere 3%: 40% to 37% with 12% for the Lib Dems.
In fact, things were probably not quite that bad for Labour in September and they are probably not quite that good now. But the polls show that political opinion is very volatile, generally Brown’s management of the financial crisis is winning him back support, and that – while Labour will still find it very tough to win a fourth term – there is a fighting chance of such a victory.
The immediate political battle is over how to respond to the recession. The Labour Government believes that we should spend our way out of recession by borrowing more as a nation, while the Conservatives believe that we should have tax cuts funded by spending reductions. This is why David Cameron has now abandoned his pledge to match Labour’s spending plans. Upon the result of the argument rests a lot of jobs and a lot of votes.


 




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