“Good morning, Viet-nam!”
A good American friend of mine has just started a tour of Vietnam and Cambodia and sent me these observations on the first country:
“Vietnam is a country of nearly 90 million on a land mass about one-third the size of Texas, putting it the top 15 of the most populous nations in the world. Most of the country is mountains and the size of farmable land is limited. Seventy percent of the population is under 40, the result of a generation lost to war and a baby-boom after reunification in 1975.
The country is going through an economic transformation as a result of economic liberalization and the end of the US trade embargo in 1995.
Our program manager is a young man born in 1976 after the war. He is a Vietnamese Baby Boomer with a wife and two children. He lived through the “miseries” or as is sometimes called “the dark days.” His story is fascinating.
After reunification in 1975, the Party imposed Soviet-style collectivization on the South. The results were an economic calamity, a time characterized by hunger and want. “We were like the people of North Korea today,” he explains. “I never want my children to live through that.” Change started in 1985 with new Party leadership committed to economic openness and accelerated after the U.S lifted the trade embargo in 1995 and opened trade relations.
Today, Vietnam is one of the fastest growing of the developing nations, but continues to lag on human rights.
The Communist government here has made an unspoken deal with the people similar to China: we will leave you alone to make as much money as you can and you will leave us alone to run the country. Political dissent or open criticism of the Party of any kind is simply not permitted. The government may not arrest you, but they can make your difficult in other ways. People just don’t do it.
Interestingly, I am told the government does not control the internet as tightly as the Chinese. The Vietnamese blogs apparently are alive with political and civic discussion. There is much discontent with the current Prime Minister and economic growth, which was bubbling along a 8-10% has slowed. The Prime Minister is blamed for pursuing economic policies favoring state-owned enterprises despite continued significant losses which have created a drag on the entire economy.
The country also faces many other challenges. Population growth is an issue. The government does not mandate a two-child policy, but it is “strongly advised .” Failure to observe the policy can block career advancement, for example, particularly if you are a member of the Party.
I am told that obtaining Party membership is very difficult. Your background is checked back to three generations (if your or your spouse’s grandfather fought in the SV army, forget it). A very small portion of the population are Party members.
But this country is as Communist as the Mafia. Young people have no ideology or allegiance to the Party. As our tour manger explains, young people care about getting their education, a career, making money, getting a good apartment, getting married and having children. They have no personal relationship to the revolution or the American War. They care more about what Beyonce is wearing than what Ho had to say.
But there is growing dissent underneath. And if not in his generation, the tour manager is certain that change will come in his children’s generation. “The internet is too powerful. People know what’s going on. Our Arab Spring will come when the right person stands forth. The government is really afraid of that,” he thinks.”
In fact, Vee and I have been to Vietnam and Cambodia and you can read an account of our visit here.