The rise and rise of UKIP – and why it won’t last (1)
British readers will be well aware that, in last week’s local elections in England, the UK Independence Party (UKIP) led by Nigel Farage, did spectacularly well, taking 23% of the vote and winning 147 council seats. Non-British readers may find this a very odd development and wonder what is going on.
There are some very British factors at play here:
- Disillusionment with the political establishment as a result of factors like the expenses scandal and Cameron’s Eton coterie
- Despair as the impact of the banking crisis continues and Britain barely escapes a triple-dip recession
- Resentment at the number of immigrants from the new Eastern European EU member states
- The non-availability of the Liberal Democrats as a protest vehicle now that they are in an unpopular coalition government
But we should see the rise of of UKIP in Britain as part of a much broader trend whereby, in many democratic countries facing deep economic and political challenges, new populist political parties have garnered huge numbers of votes in a short period of time. Think, for instance, of:
- In France, the National Front led by Marine Le Pen
- In Italy, the Five Star Movement led by Beppe Grillo
- In Greece, SYRIZA led by Alexis Tsipras
- In The Netherlands, the Fredoom Party led by Geert Wilders
- In Israel, Yesh Atid led by Yair Lapid
So the rise of of a protest party like UKIP is not unprecedented – but what will happen now? I venture to suggest that, within two or three years, the party will implode for a mixture of external and internal factors.
The external factors will include:
- focus on their lack of credible politics
- examination of the record and pronouncements of their eclectic candidates
- performance on councils of their elected representatives
The internal factors will include:
- disagreements over the development of new policies
- scandals over sources of funding
- personality clashes at all levels of this chaotic organisation
UKIP may do very well in next year’s European elections when they will be helped by resentment against the EU, low turn-out, and a proportional representation system. But, by the time of the General Election in 2015, besides all the external and internal pressures that I have identified, the focus will be more on the economy than Europe, turn-out will be much higher diluting the UKIP vote, and the first-past-the-post system will deny them more than a few seats.
May 7th, 2013 at 9:32 pm
good analysis, Roger, but perhaps too dismissive of this very English (51million) phenomenon. Remember, the left in Germany failed to take Hitler’s ‘National Socialist German Workers Party seriously, until it was too late!
As a country, Britain seems to have nowhere to go. The Empire is gone, though the stigma of colonial rule keeps rearing its ‘ungrateful’ head. The Queen will no longer attend the Commonwealth conference and Charlie Boy is no substitute.
The EU 27 and Euro are seen as ‘basket cases” or (‘for god’s sake), dominated by Germany, despite two world-class ‘defeats’. Even ungrateful Scotland is seriously considering whether to break away and Ireland under Sinn Fein, is not such a fantasy as it once was. Demographics could reduce the Loyalist majority to a minority – another headache and continuing drain financially. Wales has the temerity to thrash England at rugby. The ‘special relationship’ as the 51st state, looks rather ordinary, as Obama sends back Churchill’s bust from the White House.
In these circumstances, is it surprising that a large swathe of the English are toying with a UK Independence Party? And that’s before they have a straight Euro elections coming up to polarise opinion even more. Oh yes, and there’s the small matter of our lopsided economy. A deliberately shrunken industrial economy (didn’t we just thank Thatcher properly for that!). Bloated services (nail bars, betting shops and coffee shops galore). Financial\banking crisis – banksters generously rewarded for almost bankrupting the country. High unemployment figures massaged to disguise the desolation of a nation without secure work. Miigrants ‘flooding’ in from Eastern Europe to provide cheap (‘flexible’) labour, worsen the dire housing shortage – how many youngsters today can afford/get a mortgage. Some might say, they should have left the Iron Curtain drawn!
And now the ‘Socialist’ alternative is a pale shadow of what once used to give hope to the large English working class that there was a ‘Jerusalem’. Today, Labour ‘triangulate’ with the policies of City and Treasury-dominated economics while Alan Johnson entertains\cashes in with Andrew Neil and stories of his boyhood. The upper classes are still raking it in and the ‘squeezed’ middle class are wondering why life’s changed for them.
Apart from all that, things are fine for some of us, still. But if the world economy doesn’t come round and things get worse for more of us, Farage and UKIP might begin to show its real fascist teeth. In any case, regrettably, they are not going away for a while. But Labour and Miliband is going to have to ‘go up a gear’ to keep up with this new, dangerous, mood swing.
Keep travelling! best, jim