Is Barack Obama really going to lose the US presidential election?
Four years ago when Barack Obama won the presidential election, I did not imagine that his re-election would be so problematic. But he has faced the deepest recession in a generation and an intransigent Congress and – let’s face it – he has not always been as bold as his supporters hoped.
Over the summer, polls have shown Barack Obama and Mitt Romney to be very close and, following Obama seeming to pull away a bit, he disappointed in the first presidential debate. I’ve watched the whole of the debate and it’s not that Obama was bad, but unquestionably Romney was sharper and more energised.
The latest polls suggest that Obama’s lead over Romney has slipped to around 2% which is within the margin of error, so in effect it seems to be neck and neck.
But, here’s the thing: the US presidential elections is not decided by which candidate polls most votes nationwide but by which candidate secures the most votes in the Electoral College. And here things look better for Obama.
Real Clear Politics is an independent and informed web site which tracks American politics in forensic detail. According to their latest assessment, Obama is pretty sure of 251 Electoral College votes, while Romney is fairly certain of only 181 votes, with the rest still to play for. If we look at their best guess of how the uncertain states will break, their estimate is that Obama will win 303 Electoral College votes to Romney’s 235.
The actual election is four weeks today (although some states have been taking postal votes for weeks). It isn’t over till the fat lady sings, but I’m still banking on Obama winning – and I sure want him to do so.
October 9th, 2012 at 12:09 pm
Regarding the notion of a ‘statistical tie’, it’s not true that if the difference between the predicted votes for two candidates is smaller than the margin of error of the poll, then it’s a 50-50 chance as to who is ahead. See this article, and the table showing the probability that one candidate is ahead given the percentage lead and margin of error of the poll.
October 9th, 2012 at 12:28 pm
On the recent Pew Research poll giving Romney a 4-point lead among likely voters: Oct. 8: A Great Poll for Romney, in Perspective.
October 9th, 2012 at 8:13 pm
In the 2000 elections, Al Gore won the popular vote, but George W. Bush was awarded the win in Florida, which gave him enough votes in the Electoral College to claim the Presidency.
The Electoral College system is obviously unfair, as it gives the voters in a few key states the role of determining the outcome of the election, and denies the voters of other states an equal voice.
I believe that only a Constitutional Amendment that adresses the issue of each state having different voter eligibility standards, and another Amendment eliminating the Electoral College, will give ALL US citizens an equal voice in choosing their leaders.
Of course, the politicians will not allow this.
October 9th, 2012 at 9:59 pm
David, I agree that constitutional reform is necessary to make the US political system more democratic and more functional, but it is virtually impossible to amend the constitution in current circumstances as I have expounded here.