The American presidential election (35)
After yesterday’s primary contests in Kentucky and Oregon, Associated Press projects that Barack Obama has 1,956 of the 2,026 pledged delegates and super delegates needed to claim the nomination, compared to Hillary Clinton’s 1,776 total delegates. Obama’s campaign estimates that, if he simply held his own in the three remaining contests (Montana, South Dakota and Puerto Rico), he would then need only 25 more votes from super delegates to secure the nomination. There are 221 undeclared super delegates left.
Already Obama has passed a crucial psychological point: he has a majority of the pledged delegates that will go to the Convention. This will ultimately deliver him what is called “the Pelosi Club” – a list of super delegates who have specifically committed to vote for the leader in pledged delegates.
Meanwhile Clinton will be hoping that she can persuade the forthcoming meeting of the Rules & Bylaws Committee (RBC) for the 2008 Democratic National Convention (DNC) to reinstate the so far invalid votes of Florida and Michigan. Theoretically there are more potential delegates being discussed at the RBC meeting (366) than all the pledged delegates left to be selected and the uncommitted super delegates combined, leading some commentators to call the meeting the biggest “primary” left.
Of course, if the Clinton campaign won its way, this would be tantamount to endorsement of rule-breaking and would rightly unleash the wrath of the Obama campaign – so it isn’t going to happen. The last three states will have their votes, most of the so far undeclared super delegates will then back the man with the most pledged delegates, and Clinton will pull out of the race in June well before the Convention in August.
May 21st, 2008 at 5:39 pm
Let’s hope so, Roger, let’s hope so!
May 29th, 2008 at 4:05 pm
When did the rules change to say when you get the majority of delegates, you win the nomination?
I’m disappointed in Nancy Pelosi for saying it’s not going to the convention. I’ve been a small contributor and Democrat all my life. I may vote McCain if the procedure gets short circuited. Obama won Utah and Idaho, as if the Democrats will win those states. I just contributed for the last time a few minutes ago to Hillary and this may be my last contribution to DNCC.
May 29th, 2008 at 5:25 pm
Hi, Alfred.
Of course, the rules do not state that you win the nomination when you obtain a majority of the pledged delegates and Obama has not yet won the nomination. But, once all the primaries are over, the super delegates who have not yet declared will do so and most of them will declare for Obama. He will then have won the majority of delegates before the convention and have won the nomination without any short-circuiting of procedure.
You should than support Obama with your money, your time, and your vote. Please …