As we run up to the American presidential election consider these two facts.
Fact 1: Since the Second World War, no incumbent president has ever won an election with unemployment higher than 7.2% (Ronald Reagan in 1984 managed to win re-election when unemployment was at that 7.2% figure).
Fact 2: The unemployment rate has been above 8% for 42 straight months – its longest period ever.
You’ll find more analysis with a couple of graphs here.
So, to win a second term, Barack Obama will have to make history. But then that’s what he did four years ago by becoming the first African-American president.
Currently Obama and Romney are very close in the national polls, but the election will be determined by the Electoral College vote and here Obama looks stronger as revealed by Real Clear Politics.