What now for Ukraine and the world?
I’ve hesitated to blog about the Russian invasion of Ukraine. I was embarrassed by the role of Londongrad – my home city – as a laundromat for dirty money from Russian oligarchs and plutocrats. The situation in Ukraine seemed too horrific and heartbreaking for comment. I wondered what I could write when so much has already been said.
I last felt this way in August 1968 when, as a young man of 22, I followed the media coverage of the Warsaw Pact invasion of Czechoslovakia. I had to wait until 1989 for that wrong to be righted. By then, I was married to a half-Czech and had already visited Communist-controlled Czechoslovakia.
This time things must be different.
I think that many observers expected the Russian invasion to be so quick and brutal that Kviv would be occupied and the Ukrainian government would be overthrown in a matter of a few days. That could still happen but, thanks to the bravery of the Ukrainian military and citizenry and the belated provision of armaments from NATO nations, it is beginning to look as if there may be other options.
There might be a ceasefire and negotiations. There might be a Russian acceptance of limited territorial gains. There might be a sustained insurgency against any Russian-imposed governance and occupation. There might even be a coup against Putin.
But I can’t help feeling and hoping that, whatever the outcome, geo-politics have changed forever. It would be wonderful to think that the world community has accepted that invasion of one nation by another is so totally unacceptable in the 21st century that it will not be allowed to happen with impunity. There will always be insurgencies and revolutions – but war as we have understood it throughout history should become literally history.
How could this possibly be the case?
First, we now have the satellite and electronic technologies to ensure that invasion by one nation of another – at least at scale – can never be a surprise. In 1941, Stalin could deny the human intelligence that he had of Hitler’s intention to launch Operation Barbarossa, but satellite photographs on an hourly basis and transcripts of political and military communications cannot be ignored.
The intelligence community – especially in the USA – correctly warned of each stage of the Russian military build-up and of the intention of the Russians to invade once the Winter Olympics in China were over. The same forewarning should be true of any future planning for international aggression.
Second, the world community is slowly coming to a realisation that – if it really wants to do so and it is prepared to pay the price – sanctions can have a real impact on an aggressor nation. Targeted and sustained economic sanctions against government entities, corporations and individuals, denial of access to financial and transactional systems, exclusion of all trading relationships, plus total boycotts of sporting, cultural, academic and scientific events and programmes, raise the bar of consequences that any potential aggressor will have to face.
Third, we have to be realistic and accept that war cannot be outlawed simply by good intentions, forewarnings and sanctions. In the end, any potential aggressor has to know that force can be met with force. We may have thought that the end of the Cold War meant that we had a massive peace dividend and that peace-loving nations could now cut back substantially on their military expenditures and preparedness.
The Cold War remained (relatively) cold because of the power of deterrence. It is an ugly truth that we still need deterrence and that it has a cost that we must be prepared to pay.
February 27th, 2022 at 4:53 pm
I fear Vladimir Putin may be the first leader in history who is prepared to launch a nuclear strike. He is no fool but is clearly mad and exceedingly bad (secular person though I am, the word ‘evil’ comes to mind). I have been arguing for days that someone who is in his close circle needs, quite urgently, to take him out. I have no moral qualms in urging this. Imagine if Hitler had been assassinated in 1924, 1938 or even 1940; 55 million lives might have been saved. While ideas and ideologies drive historical change, one man really can – as we have seen – alter the course of human history. One other possible solution: send in an Israeli or US hit team – and do it quickly; this guy is nuts.
February 28th, 2022 at 1:19 pm
I have moral qualms about political assassinations, even of evil power-hungry leaders. But an internal coup would be the quickest and cleanest option.
March 1st, 2022 at 8:48 am
Concerning apprehension of Political assassination, I agree. But regime change in the Soviet Union/Russia was seldom peaceful. The uprising that ended the Tsars was the first, then Stalin’s rise to power. It is alleged that Beriya poisoned Stalin when he seized power in the 50s, but his reign as leader was short when forces lead by Nikita Khrushchev ousted him from power and Beriya’s own NKVD ended up executing their former leader a few weeks later.
Khrushchev was ousted somewhat peacefully in 64 and lamented at least he could “retire” while his predecessors ended up six feet under. The deaths of aging Communist leaders lead to the rise of Gorbachev and his reforms. But he got placed under house arrest in 1991 as hardliners seized power in 1991. That attempt to make the USSR great again just ended up having it collapse only a few short days later with Yeltsin ending up as the leader of a post Soviet Russia.
Putin has consolidated his power over about two decades and it looks like it will take a fight to push him out. But, the calls for his head are going to get louder and louder now that the sanctions are biting really hard. In the end, the Ukrainians may end up in a better state than the Russians given the Ukranians will likely get humanitarian aid and assistance from the EU. As for what Russia will get, who knows.
March 4th, 2022 at 5:54 pm
Good comments Roger.
When I visited Kiev, the country was newly independent of the collapsed Soviet Empire. We were there to advise on mass privatisation following our experiences with the Treuhand, in Czech, Poland, etc. I remember it as a sad place. The Soviet style blocks were grim. The then pro old regime government sat behind us on the stage. This praesidium was relic of the Soviet era. The praesidium members already knew everything, hence there position behind us. I remember the horrors that locals told us of the suffering, deportations and death under Stalin. There were also Russian speakers. They later suffered at the hands of the vengeful Ukrainians from the western, old Austrian Empire areas. I am disturbed by the brutality of Putin, also by the reliance on ‘evidence’ from spooks as fact. The US does seem to have given him a free hand to invade. I expect that Putin will negotiate a deal. It will leave him with a no NATO guarantee for Ukraine and maybe reduced, face saving sanctions. The US will have consolidated its grip on Europe and many will gain financially. The people of the Ukraine are and will suffer more. I hope I am wrong.