The Mick Jagger election
A few results are still awaited in the UK’s General Election 2010 but the broad contours are now clear. I think that my old friend Professor Peter Hennessy had it right on BBC television when he called this “the Mick Jagger election” since almost all the political parties can’t get no satisfaction.
The Conservatives have failed to win the overall majority that opinion polls promised them for years and that they need to form a strong government at a time of financial challenge of historic proportions; Labour has lost around 90 seats and has almost certainly lost office and is about to lose a leader; the Liberal Democrats failed to win many more votes and even lost seats when the most recent polls had seemed to offer them so much; the BNP and UKIP both made no serious impact (thank goodness); the Scottish Nationalists failed to make any gains in spite of inflated predictions; Plaid Cymru did no better in Wales; and the Democratic Unionists saw their leader lose his seat at Westminster.
In some senses, the most disappointed must be the Lib Dems who, at one point, were predicted to win more votes than Labour. So what happened? I think that many voters became over-excited by the first couple of leaders’ debates on television and told pollsters that they would vote for Clegg when they had simply not thought it through.
All the political parties feel a bit annoyed that the exit poll conducted for the BBC/ITV/Sky proved to be so accurate.
About the only parties to be satisfied with the election are the Green Party and the Alliance Party in Northern Ireland, both of which won their first Westminster seats.
In my own constituency of Brent North, sitting Labour MP Barry Gardiner retained his seat (the boundaries are changed) with an excellent result which held the Conservative swing to 2.3%.
So what happens now? Much though I mourn the fact, I don’t think the electoral arithmetic allows a Lab-Lib coalition government. I doubt very much that Nick Clegg is willing to go into government with David Cameron. So I think we’re set for a minority Conservative Government with a measure of Lib Dem support, the details of which will have to be negotiated and should include some movement on electoral reform.
And the likelihood is that we’ll have another General Election in the next 12 months, possibly as early as the Autumn, with a new Labour leader and an unpredictable financial scenario. In the meanwhile, we will have no great legislative reform but tackling the public finances will be front and centre.
Of course, I did suggest this basic scenario as long ago as January in this posting.
May 7th, 2010 at 5:36 pm
Clegg is like all Liberals – bet he gets into bed with Cameron?
They come from the same background – elitist and a couple of chancers.
My MP increased his majority over the Liberals by 3.3%, the Cons came third as usual.
Think I will apply for the border to move 90 miles South.
What’s up – I got asked who I was? Changed your method or working?
May 9th, 2010 at 5:15 pm
Only the revolutionary overthrow of corporate capitalism will solve these problems. Simples – if you ask me.