U.S. presidential election (36): stop the world, I wanna get off
I spent the whole of last night at the Marylebone Sports Bar and Grill in central London with a few hundred Americans resident in Britain – all Democrats wanting a victory by Hillary Clinton. I arrived about 10.15 pm and stayed until the place closed at 5.30 am, so it was 6.20 am before I reached my bed.
It was a noisy affair with so many excited people and dozens of screens showing live coverage of the election results on CNN. I tweeted 11 times in the course of the evening. All my tweets come up on my Facebook page and I received a number of comments from friends in both the UK and the USA who had also stayed up for the results.
It was a surprising and depressing result. The polls got it completely wrong and across the democratic world we are finding that political polling is much less accurate than it was.
Donald Trump’s victory is astonishing. For someone who has never held elected office, has such a chequered business career, did not publish his tax returns, insulted almost every demographic constituent in the election, was so extreme in his policies when they were clear, and was so vague about his policies in so many crucial areas, for this person to beat one of the most experienced politicians ever to run for the White House is simply breathtaking.
For those, like me, who vehemently opposed his candidature but wishes America and the world well, we have to hope that he will pull back from many of his more extreme positions in the face of the realities of power and that he will appoint experienced and wise colleagues who will be able and ready to counsel him. We have to hope this because his tenure will profoundly affect the whole world and we have nowhere else to go.
There’s been a spike in views of my short guide to the American political system and I’ve just updated it to take account of the election result.
November 10th, 2016 at 8:20 pm
I find the idea thar this was a kind of massacre of the Democrats or that the pollsters were totally wrong, a little exaggerated. Clinton won the popular vote. That’s what polls predicted. Only thousands of votes from where she had large majorities to other closely fought states and she would have won. This morning people would have been talking of Clinton as a narrow but deserving winner. I think it is important to step back from the exaggerated language we seem to have got hung up on in UK as well as USA and other countries. Having said that perhaps it is time for the USA labour movement to seek new young candidates ready for next time or even to sponsor a third party. Gerontocracy is not good. As an old almost 70 year old I find it sad to have to choose between two old out of touch candidates. I am a convinced Ageist. Nobody over 55 should be allowed to stand for elected office in politics or trade unions.
November 13th, 2016 at 12:21 pm
Philip,
I agree with most of what you’ve said. The significance of what has happened this week may not become apparent for some time, as with Brexit.
I also despair of gerontocracies, but looking around the globe, It looks as though they are on the increase. I would love to return in 200 years to see how it all pans out – probably totally different from what I would have expected.
November 14th, 2016 at 12:13 pm
It seems turnout was lower than in 2012 – 57% – http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/voter-turnout-fell-especially-in-states-that-clinton-won/
which is interesting given how bitterly fought the election was – and how much depended on it.
UK turnout in 2015 was 66%. Those Clinton supporters who didn’t bother to vote will have some soul searching to do – not only on their own behalf but on the rest of us round the world who will have to live with the consequences.
Immediate groups that spring to mind are the Ukrainians whose country will be invaded by Putin in the next couple of years – especially as the Russian economy continues to slide and he needs a foreign invasion to distract Russian voters.
November 14th, 2016 at 12:41 pm
Max,
A combination of a turnout of just 57% and Clinton winning more votes overall than Trump is not exactly a ringing endorsement for Trumpism.
But, as you say, the consequences will be felt not just in the USA but around the world. I’m worried about the independence of the Baltic States which i have visited.
November 14th, 2016 at 2:34 pm
Roger
“We have to hope that he will pull back from many of his more extreme positions in the face of the realities of power and that he will appoint experienced and wise colleagues who will be able and ready to counsel him. We have to hope this because his tenure will profoundly affect the whole world and we have nowhere else to go.”
You were ever an optimist and so was I – but now my glass is half empty and not half full.
November 14th, 2016 at 3:03 pm
We have to hope …
The alternative does not bare thinking about.
November 14th, 2016 at 3:28 pm
You are correct – it is not a ringing endorsement but it is a result as per the American Constitution. The framers of the constitution were (rightly) concerned about having a system of checks and balances to prevent too much power going into one pair of hands. However, we now have a situation where, in a few months, the President, Senate House of Representatives and the Supreme Court will be Republican. Of course, the Supreme Court is allegedly apolitical but we all remember what happened in Florida in 2000 – Bush v Gore.
We live in interesting times and I’d rather not.
November 14th, 2016 at 11:53 pm
No one has mentioned the extraordinary intervention
by the entirely party partisan FBI Director.
This certainly influenced such a close result.
I don’t understand why Clinton hasn’t gone to
the Supreme Court for an annulment and re-run.
There’s one for your next description of
the ‘democratic’ US system. To use Trump’s
description, it’s crooked.