The Arab Spring (3): where did regimes change?
At the weekend, I attended the first a number of short courses that I will be attending this summer at the City Literary Institute in central London. The title was “The Arab Spring” and the lecturer was Dr James Chiriyankandath of the School of Advanced Study in the University of London.
Out of all the countries in the region and all the various protests that occurred, there were only four countries where regimes actually changed. In each case, a strong man at the head of the patrimonial state was overthrown. In these cases, state structures themselves were weak. All of these states were poor without the income enjoyed by other rentier states such as those in the Gulf.
In the first state to topple Tunisia, uniquely in the Arab revolutions trade unions were a significant force for change. The dictator of 24 years Ben Ali was forced to resign in a matter of weeks in January 2011. In the second half of 2011, successful elections were held. Although an offshoot of the Muslim Brotherhood, the Islamist party there was the most open to the plurality of opinion in the Arab world so, when it won the most seats but not a majority, it was willing to work with others to some extent. Since then, following a dramatic Nobel prize winning intervention by civic forces to keep democracy on track, a four party coalition led by a secular president has come to power. So only Tunisia has managed the transition to some kind of democratic government.
In Egypt, the strong man of 30 years Hosni Mubarak was forced to resign following mass demonstrations, most notably in Cairo’s Tahrir Square. In the elections that followed, Egyptians elected a Muslim Brotherhood government but the president Mohammad Morsi proved clumsy in relations with the opposition and the so-called deep state was working to undermine him. Following massive protests and a military intervention, the elected government was overthrown, so we now have a new dictatorship led by Abdel Fattah el-Sisi that is more repressive than the previous Mubarak regime.
In Libya, the revolution started in the east which was more marginalized politically and economically. In this case, western governments intervened to protect people besieged in Benghazi. Following the execution of Colonel Gaddafi who had been in power since 1969, the country descended into warlordism and chaos. There are now two different governments, one based in the west of the country (Tripoli) and the other in the east (Tobruk), with a new internationally-backed national unity administration trying to establish a measure of control. Islamist forces have now gained significant footholds throughout the country.
After 13 months of protest in Yemen, the corrupt dictator Ali Abdullah Saleh stepped down but subsequently there has been civil war between the northern-based Sunni (Al Qaeda and Islamic State) and the northern-based Shia (Houthi). Today the president is Abd Rabbuh Mansur Hadi who was elected unopposed in 2012 but he is simply clinging to power.
So, of the four countries that witnessed regime change as a result of the Arab Spring, only one – Tunisia – remains in any a sense a democracy and a fragile one at that.