U.S. presidential election (27): could Trump really become President?
Can Donald Trump really win the White House? All the serious pundits who look at the data, say that he can’t and several come to the same prediction for the Electoral College vote. In this piece for the “Huffington Post”, Richard North Patterson points out:
“A look at the electoral college map pretty much tells us all we need to know. However absurd it may be as an institution, the electoral college neatly captures our political polarization. A few pertinent facts from recent elections:
19 states and the District of Columbia have voted for a Democrat in the last six presidential contests. These alone account for 242 electoral votes — a mere 28 short of the 270 needed to win the presidency.
By comparison, the 13 states which voted Republican in the last six elections contain 102 electoral votes. You can take it to the bank that the GOP would carry these states were its nominee Charles Manson or Benito Mussolini — or even Donald Trump. But even were the GOP to draft Jesus Christ himself, upon resurrection he would have to round up another 168 electoral votes.
This effort did not work out terribly well for another man of faith, Willard Romney. In 2012, Romney received an additional 104 electoral votes. That left him at 206 compared to Barack Obama’s 332. In electoral college terms, a landslide.”
For the forthcoming 2016 election, Patterson’s prediction is as follows:
“Like the Times and Larry Sabato, I give Clinton every swing state and throw in North Carolina. The result? Clinton 347; Trump 191.”
Let’s hope he’s right.
May 27th, 2016 at 10:11 am
If the electoral college has the final vote and say on who wins the election what happens to all the citizens’ votes?
Does this system truly constitute a democracy?
Silla Grobbelaar
May 27th, 2016 at 10:22 am
There are many forms of democracy and none of them is perfect. I have written an essay on how to critique a political system here:
http://www.rogerdarlington.me.uk/critique