So who actually voted for whom in the General Election?
In an analytical piece, Alberto Nardelli states:
“The general election result can be summarised in a nutshell: the Conservatives did well with voters that turn out. Labour did well with voters who don’t vote.
More than eight in 10 of those who had supported Cameron’s party five years ago did so again in this election, according to estimates calculated by Ipsos Mori.
But even more crucially to the election’s outcome, the Conservatives were not only best at holding on to their 2010 voters, they were also the most successful party among those groups with high turnout.”
There is no simple answer to Labour’s dilemma. Nardelli writes:
“Labour only had a clear lead over the Conservatives among 18- to 34-year-olds, voters in social class DE (the “semi-skilled and unskilled manual occupations, unemployed and lowest grade occupations”), among private and social renters, and black, Asian and minority ethnic (BAME) voters.
But among all these groups, turnout was lower than the overall level of voter turnout (66%).
To make matters even worse for Labour, the party’s vote share actually fell among those aged 65 or above. Within this age group, Miliband’s party won 23% of the vote – down eight points on 2010.
Overall, Ed Miliband’s party held on to 72% of those who said they voted Labour in 2010. The party lost votes in relatively equal numbers to the Conservatives (8%), Ukip (6%), the Lib Dems, SNP and the Greens (all 5%).”
May 24th, 2015 at 6:51 am
Thanks for the link Roger, I’d been wondering about turnout numbers – living in a country with compulsory voting I’m always curious.
From the article:
“Before the election, many, based on polling, were expecting turnout to substantially increase compared to 2010. In the event, turnout only increased by one point to 66%. It is estimated to have remained low with 18-24-year-olds (43%), almost half the level for those those aged 65 or above (78%).”
43% seems very low to me and doesn’t bode well for the future.
May 24th, 2015 at 9:59 am
I agree, Nadine. This is part of my analysis about the crisis in the older democracies:
http://www.rogerdarlington.me.uk/democracy