British general election (9): why are the polls all over the place?
The latest Guardian/ICM survey (a phone poll) has the Conservatives ahead by six points. Meanwhile, a YouGov poll (an internet survey) for the Sun published on Sunday night showed a three-point Labour lead.
A series of internet polls last week had Labour’s lead ranging from three to six points. But a ComRes phone poll released a few hours later had the Tories ahead, although only by one point.
So, what’s going on?
As this article explains, the main difference seems to be in the method of polling: phone polling vs Internet polling. But there are two further matters to remember when we try to forecast the actual result on 7 May: first, there is still three weeks to go so there is time for opinion to change and, second, it is opinion (and turnout) in the marginal constituencies that really matters and that may not be the same as the national trend.
Alberto Nardelli concludes his article on polling as follows:
“There is no shortage of seat projection forecasts available either. But, for the moment, they all agree that Labour and the SNP will win more seats than the Conservatives and the Lib Dems combined. Whatever the results of any poll or set of polls, it is the ability to convene a parliamentary majority and form a government that will matter most.”